FanNation

Everyone always thinks that their team is going to make it to the playoffs, and obviously I'm no different.

   This year looks to be a reversal of fortune for the Atlanta Braves.  With the Bravos missing the playoffs the past two seasons (*after going for 14-straight years*), there is much to accomplish - but it can be done.  This offseason has brought a few changes to the Braves lineup, both good and bad.

   The first big change was the signing of Tom Glavine back to the Braves.  I can't express how nice it'll be to see Tommy back in a friendly uniform.  Tom's a solid starter, which is something the Braves have been missing for a few years, mostly due to the constant injury to Mike Hampton (*don't get me started*).  This transaction has three main points that make it good for the Braves.  First of all, we can expect 10+ additional wins this season.  This would more than make up the difference in the division from last season.  With a typical season of 35 starts, we can expect to stay close in many of those, and hopefully get the wins for Tommy.  His presence on the mound alone should give us the support needed to edge out opponents.  Secondly, that's 10+ wins that we're taking away from the New York Mutts, which leaves Atlanta to fight it out with the Phillies and the Marlins (*okay, the Marlins comment was a joke*).  Finally, Tom is a decent hitter.  With an OBP of .246 (*.188 BA*), he draws a lot of walks and is able to put the ball in play.

   The second change for Atlanta was the loss of Andruw Jones to the Dodgers.  First it was Furcal, now Andruw.  Sure, he had an awesome ability in center field.  His skills will be greatly missed.  What won't be missed, however, was his .222 last year.  A. Jones typically had slumps every year, but he worked out of them and brought his average around.  Last year was much different.  He seemingly started off bad, and kept it up the entire season with a few "lucky" shots here and there.  Andruw turned into one of those guys that wanted EVERY hit to be a HR.  Sure, it was a contract year and he wanted to get what he deserved, but what he ended up doing was making it worse, much worse.  One example of this was when I took my wife to a Braves vs Rockies game.  Smoltz was on the mound, so that was good considering I bought the tickets a month in advance and had no idea of how the rotation would turn around.  Anyways, Jones came up four times, and on three of those occasions he struck out swinging.  That's bad enough, but it gets worse.  On each of the three strikeouts, not only did he swing, but he made HORRIBLE swings -- down to his knee and yet he still spun around.  Are you trying to hit the ball or look silly?  To wrap it up, I'll miss his wall-climbing, but I won't miss his lackluster offensive performance.

   The change that I think will make the biggest impact is the abilities of Mark Teixeira.  Sure, I'll miss Salty (*Jarrod Saltalamacchia*), but his skills at first were greatly needed.  Scott Thorman - need I say more?  In Big Tex's 54 games, he ammased 66 hits (*27 for extra bases, including 17 HR's*), 27 walks, scored 38 runs and brought home 56 RBI's (*that's right, an RBI every game, plus a couple*).  Do I think he'll end up with 50 HR's this year?  No, probably not.  I expect (*translated as "hope"*) to see 40+ HRs, 120ish RBIs and hits out the wazoo...  With the Jones Brothers officially split up, I can only wish that the Jones-Tex combination bring the Braves offense back to where it used to be.

Here are some things that I see that might cause some issues:

1.  Centerfield - Josh Anderson.  He's only been in 21 pro games.  He doesn't look very speedy (*1 SB out of 2 attempts*) and his .358 BA is very deceiving considering his limited playtime.  Willie Harris would have made a decent replacement, but he was shipped out to the Nationals (*sucks to be him*) to cover CF for them.

2.  Pitching - After you make it through the first three starters (*Smoltz, Hudson & Glavine*) you drop off severely.  Can the Braves afford to have questionable pitching in 40% of their games?  No, of course not.  The best we can hope for is a lucky break from the mound or an offensive burst to hold us in those games.  Of course I'm not saying that the Braves are going to win the first three games every time, but the chance is good.  To follow up on that, I point to the bullpen.  Soriano as a closer is a "decent" choice.  Braves fans have seen better closers, but we'll have to make due.  He went 9 for 12 in save opportunities, and 3-3 when he got a decision.  His K/BB ratio is almost 5:1, so he's got the numbers needed to make it work.

3.  Third base - Yes, I know, Chipper is healthy again.  For how long though?  Can we count on 100+ games from him again?  I sure hope so - we definately need his offensive numbers.  Aybar is listed as the backup for 3B - hopefully he has all of his "issues" worked out this year and he can man the corner when needed.  Infante was brought in from the Tigers and is listed as the third-string 3B (*as well as the second-string for SS and 2B*).

I hope that the issues listed above work themselves out.  Will we trade down and get a better closer?  Probably not.  Can we force Chipper to stay healthy all year, of course not.  We can only sit back and watch it unfold (*not on TBS though - that's gonna suck*)

Long live the Braves!

David