FanNation - The Republic of Sport

(Updated 2/29/08) 

I'm just going to come out and say it... the Baltimore Ravens will be the Super Bowl XLIII Champions and Troy Smith will be your Super Bowl MVP.

Maybe that's a bit much to be predicting just yet and pretty unrealistic. However, 2009-10 seems a little more hopeful. In 2005-06 the Ravens went like 6-10 or something then followed up in the 2006-07 season with a 13-3 season, best in franchise history. 2005 was a year of injuries and bad luck: Kyle Boller was injured in the first game of the year against the Colts and Anthony Wright played most of the season as starting QB. This left a mediocre offense in even worse shape. Along with injuries at QB, the defense suffered from injuries to even more valuable players. Though, the defense was still very respectable. The end of the season did give fans some hope when Boller produced two amazing games against Green Bay and the Vikings and was Fed-Ex Player of the Week.

The next summer before the 2006 season began McNair came to the Ravens, a rested and healed team with a dangerous defense. The Ravens showed the league what they could do with all the right pieces in place. They were the #2 seed in the AFC and had the best defense in the league. Even though they lost to the Colts (a team that found a rebirth in January and eventual Super Bowl champs) in the playoffs, they stopped them from scoring a single touchdown the entire game. Neither the Patriots, nor the Bears in the following weeks could contain the Colts. This past year: more injuries to the old people and the team suffered its worst record under Billick and ultimately his firing.

In 2008, the Ravens have a new coach, kept their defensive mastermind (Rex Ryan), and brought in some new weapons (Cam Cameron). The Ravens are serious contenders, when healthy. Though John Harbaugh is young, he has already made some wise decisions with his coaching staff. He has put in place two very experienced coordinators for offense and defense, and he is a special teams expert. The Ravens have a lot of possibilities with QB: they can have a healthy McNair teaching Smith, with Boller as a backup (who had a 100+ rating as a backup in 2006), they could have Boller starting with McNair as backup, or less likely Troy Smith starting with Boller and McNair as backups. It mostly depends on McNair's ability to play. He's a great quarterback when he's healthy, but when he's not you get a season down the drain we the Ravens learned. Plus, there are rumors that the Ravens are interested in McNabb. Is this a good idea? That's a different discussion that a lot of people have a lot of opinions about. With Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, etc. resting after a very rough season, the Ravens are seeing some very similar conditions as they did before the 2006 season.

It's true, the Ravens could be a surprise team this year, but they have a very demanding schedule ahead of them. Here is a table of the 2008 schedule and the opponent's 2007 record, including playoffs: 

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This is by far not an easy schedule, playing two of the strongest divisions in the NFL: AFC South and NFC East. They play only three teams who had below a .500 winning percentage last year, four if you include Bengals twice. Assuming the Ravens are a decent team next year, the only "gimme" game on the schedule is Oakland. You can't really consider the Dolphins a definite win because there's no telling what they're going to be like next season with the spring cleaning their facing. As for the Bengals, anyone who is a fan of a team in the AFC North knows records mean nothing between these teams. None of them like each other and they all know each other well. As with every division, each team plays the other three twice resulting in six division games per team. Five of those games are going to be battles. So except for one or two games, the Ravens are going to have to fight for every win. Projecting their final record, with luck they might be able to pull off 10 or 11 wins. Not likely though, probably more like 8 or 9, which is not good enough to make it to the playoffs in the AFC most of the time. A 12+ win season is a very unrealistic goal with a complete purging of coaching staff. Producing an 8-8 or better season would be a very big accomplishment in the Ravens’ current condition. Not every team is going to have the same success of the new coaches these past couple seasons. The Ravens have a lot of potential but aren’t as complete as say the Steelers were for Tomlin or the Cowboys were for Phillips. A new coach in that position has much more of an advantage to succeed early; kind of like giving them training wheels on a new bike. Same time, look at what Mike McCarthy did with Green Bay and what Sean Payton did with the Saints. You never know.

The Ravens have a much better chance going all the way in the 2009-10 season. Based on what we know about the teams today, where they’re headed and assuming no big surprises (even though there always are), the 2009 schedule is still difficult but possibly more forgiving:

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The AFC West division has lost much of its power. A year or two ago, it was a very difficult division, but now with Denver and Kansas City in transition, and Oakland being Oakland, it is substantially weaker. Also, there is good chance that the NFC North will be a weak division in a couple years. Sure, Green Bay was a great team this year, but Brett Favre is old and will retire or burn out eventually (at least, according to the 2^nd Law of Thermodynamics). Chicago is currently in a QB funk with Rex Grosman as their best prospect. When you’re best player is on special teams, you have some holes in other areas. What happened to that defense?! Minnesota could be a super power, it could be a flop. We’ll see over the next year or two, but most likely this will be decided by the evolution of Tavaris Jackson. Detroit doesn’t have much of a future in sight, so it’s difficult to predict what kind of team they’ll be in a year. However, if we look at history, it won’t be much of one. The Ravens have more potential of being a better team in two years than these four.

As for the AFC North, Pittsburgh is usually the place you need to go through to get to the top. They are the most dominant team in the division thus far without a doubt. They are beatable and the Ravens have shown that. They have a good history against the Steelers, better than either Cincinnati or Cleveland. The year the Steelers went 15 and 1, the Ravens were that 1. The following year, when Pittsburgh brought home the Lombardi trophy and the Ravens went 6-10, they still took a game off the Steelers. This past season, last game before playoffs, the Ravens had nothing to play for and the Steelers needed a higher seed so they wouldn’t have to play the Jaguars. The Ravens played spoiler and sent the Steelers into a one-and-done playoff record. There’s no arguing that the Ravens and Steelers have a rough history between each other. In the past four years, the only year the Ravens and Steelers didn’t split 1-1 was 2006 when the Ravens completely dominated the Steelers in both games. In fact, when the Ravens hosted the Steelers that year, they set the record for sacks in a game. I was there, it was amazing.

Cincinnati and Cleveland are two lesser threats. Cincinnati is in the beginning of a complete meltdown. Marvin Lewis seemed like he was on his way to making the Bengals a successful team, but the lack of discipline is taking its toll and Lewis’ career is on the hot seat. Cleveland had success this year, but their future is uncertain. There’s still a lot of concern with Anderson as QB and when Brady Quinn will take over. This transition could give the Ravens the chance to take over the division.

It’s a tough division to predict because all four teams have great potential. The Steelers have been a very consistent team and you can never count them out. Cleveland showed a lot of potential this past season with rising stars like Joe Thomas. Cincinnati is having its problems, but if the coaching can gets its players back together as a team, a decent defense, and keep Carson Palmer healthy, they could be dangerous. Same time, there are a lot of ifs that could go against these teams too. If Roethlisberger gets hurt, the Steelers are neutralized. If Cleveland’s QB hopes flop, they’re back to mediocrity. If Cincinnati continues down the path it’s headed, it’ll be a deep hole to climb out of.

The Ravens are on a steady path to building a great team. If they can continue their great defensive personnel record and use their new coaches to get the offense to a respectable level, they’re going to be a serious team. There may not be immediate success, but the Ravens are definitely going in a better direction than a lot of other teams.

Right now, the obvious dominant teams are the Patriots, the Colts, the Cowboys, maybe the Chargers, and [insert some NFC team here]. Things are going to change. The Cowboys probably have the brightest future. They have a good coach on board now, with a possible great coach in the making. They have a young QB with amazing potential and a lot other great players. Only problem is T.O. is entering the latter years of his good career, so they’re going to need find a replacement in a few years. Yes, Jason Witten is awesome, but you need more than a good TE. The Patriots are an old team. Brady, Moss, and the defense aren’t going to be around forever. Plus, the past 10-15 years have shown that the Super Bowl loser tends to self destruct. No, they won’t be the next Oakland Raiders, and they’re in better shape than most other past Super Bowl losers, but they probably won’t be the next Buffalo Bills either. Plus, with all this Belichick controversy who knows what’s going to happen to them. The Colts too are an aging team with a coaching change in the near future. The Chargers appear to be a force to be reckoned with, but LaDanian is a running back and they don’t have a long shelf like generally. Sure they have a young, talented QB and some great offensive weapons, but Norv Turner doesn’t have the best coaching record. Then there’s usually some NFC team that gets hot for a year or two (e.g. Bears 05, 06). Minnesota has a good possibility of becoming a great team. The Seahawks also might be a contender next year because Holmgren’s going to go all out for one last chance at winning a championship for Seattle, but after that they probably won’t be anything more than the usual decent team in a bad division. Of course, you’ve got to mention the Giants. They showed they have the potential to be a great team, but it’s hard to say it they had a hot streak or if they can back it up. Every year we’re reminded the NFC is full of the unpredictable.

As the superpowers of the 2000s begin to decline, new empires grow towards the 2010s. Dallas, Tenessee, Minnesota, Houston, Cleveland and Baltimore all have possible greatness in their futures. Dallas is the obvious one, already seeing a lot of success. Perhaps more when Garrett takes over. Minnesota has an extremely talented running back in Adrian Peterson and a young QB who’s shown a lot of good, but also a lot of bad. More than likely they’ll find a way to be successful. Houston is a young organization, but they’re looking better each year. One day they’re going to break out and be a great team. However, they haven’t dealt with success as a team or organization before, so it’ll be hard to hold onto it for long. Look at the Panthers, they made it to the Super Bowl and crumbled. They’re on their way back up though; another team who’s been suffering from devastating injuries. Cleveland has shown a lot of growth under Romeo Crennel, however the Browns lack the buzz you need to step up. Already Kellen Winslow is shopping around for a new team. If they can keep growing they could be a really good team. Baltimore has a great organization behind them and potentially it just got a lot better. Their record for drafting and picking personnel has been excellent in the past, except for QB, but with Cam Cameron hopefully they can even develop a lasting quarterback for the first time in their history. Though some of the team is older, they are great teachers and you have to believe that the Ravens will hold up on defense they way they have for so long.

In a couple years there will be room for another team or two to come to power in the AFC (there’s always room in the NFC). The Patriots and the Colts can’t beat up on everyone forever and the Ravens have a great shot at improving over the next couple years. With the right decisions and a little luck, they have a chance to take that vacancy.