FanNation - The Republic of Sport

So, we're a couple days into the season and the Indians look pretty good so far. The lineup is playing out to be longer than I thought it was going to be, thanks in part to the fact that Franklin Gutierrez is learning to layoff the low and away sliders from righties. Twice against Javier Vazquez, Gutierrez was able to lay off average to above-average sliders that started middle out and ended up unreachable. Last season, this was a guaranteed strikeout for Gutierrez. Granted, he ended up striking out on a outside fastball a few pitches later, but the end result isn't important. By laying off those pitches, Gutierrez will drastically cut his K rate, and lengthen the Indians already patient lineup. In addition to cutting his k-rate and putting the ball in play, this will allow him to stay at the plat long enough to get those mistake pitches that he can crush. I don't want to jinx the beginning of a good season, but this could be the breakout year for this 5-tool player.


Asdrubal Cabrera is going to be a great contact hitter with above average peripherals, and he should be hitting second, sooner rather than later. He runs better than I expected, so having him and Grady up top would really be fun to see with Hafner (more on him later), Vmart, Garko and Peralta slotting in behind. Cabrera has good bat control and a confident approach. He rarely swings and misses, and seems to be willing to draw a walk or two, from last year's small sample size, Cabrera was on pace to draw 70-80 walks. He had higher walk rates at AA in Seattle/Cleveland farm systems, so it's safe to say he has a good chance of upping that total this year. It just seems like the inside-out single from the left side, that Jeter perfected from the right, is a natural thing for Cabrera to do. The only real concern is his lack of power, even gap power is hard for him to come by. He was able to speed his bat up on a low-and-inside changeup for a double against Vazquez. But even then, he was placing the ball, not hitting it past anyone. In order for him to be a truly special offensive player, he will need to develop that "cheat" swing that lets him drive the gaps on mistake pitches. Roberto Alomar perfected this approach and turned into a perennial All-Star with a pretty similar skill set, albeit slightly more impressive physical tools.

Travis Hafner is perilously close to going the way of so many lefty pull hitters: He will continue to hit 20-25 HR a year and always get 100 RBI in the middle of a good lineup. Those counting stats aside, he could strikeout 150 times a year and not really be a feared hitter until injuries and forced adjustments eventually take their toll. I don't think there is something fundamentally wrong with his swing, it looks very similar to that of his superb 2005 season. I think his swing is a little too quick right now (which sounds absurd) but when he is going right, he has a long-slow load that can be unleashed on inside pitches for plus-plus pull power. The same load was maintained for gap power to the opposite field when straight stuff is thrown away. Off-speed stuff away doesn't play well with his approach, so he must foul these off unless he has all of his weight back and can get the extension required to get on top and drive through the ball. The picture above illustrates the load being too-high and having more of a chop motion: unable to get the swing on plane in time on inside pitches, he strikes out. On outside pitches he either hits the ball on the down stroke and flys out to left, or pulls over the ball and grounds into the shift.

Another area of concern is how he looks at the plate. He looks confused, uncertain and at times, scared. Jenks is an overwhelming pitcher to many hitters, but Hafner is a premier hitter and shouldn't look helpless against anyone, let alone someone in his division. Recently, it seems like lefties are throw away ABs for Travis. He needs to get back to the grinding approach he used to have. He had the 2nd best OPS in the majors in 2005 because he treated every AB (or at least this is what appeared to happen from the outside) as a lengthy battle and worked walks from 1-2 counts or got pitches to turn on by fouling off low and away pitches until the count was more favorable.

Brief notes on the rest: Grady Sizemore looks great, should have a phenomenal season and increase his BB/K ratio for a 3rd straight year while maintaining 25/25 stats. Ryan Garko seems like a lock for 20-90 with a .29o/.345/.490 line while receiving about 100 fewer ABs than the standard 1B. Victor Martinez injury looks like it will only make him miss a handful of games, with his return coming as soon as Saturday against the A's. He came out of the gates in typical fashion with solid AB's from both sides of the plate and driving in runs whenever the chance is there. A repeat of last year looks about right. Jhonny Peralta is such a frustrating hitter; he has plus power to the opposite field and can bury balls down the left field line, yet he can never pull it together. Another .280-20-85 season with below-average defense and 120 K's is in the pipeline unless he learns how to stop missing the baseball. Casey Blake clutch, not clutch, who cares. He is a 9 hitter who will hit high-teens home runs and continue to be as inept at using the opposite field as he is at third. Jason Michaels will continue to be a serviceable platoon against lefties, but barely above league average. David Delucci seems to be hitting the wall, injuries and old-age don't allow for this wristy hitter to turn on mistakes as used to do with Texas. Still, he is a professional hitter and will be good for some walks and won't waste too many at bats. Both Michaels and Delucci are worse than Ben Francisco in terms of gross production, but together they make the lineup more difficult than Francisco's free-swinging approach would.