FanNation

Now Batting Fifth: Alfonso Soriano

The 1970s brought us team mascots, robin egg blue uniforms (except in Chicago where the White Sox wore softball uniforms), lots of Astroturf and the Designated Hitter rule, among other assorted madness. Those were strange times.

During those long ago days (henceforth known as the “pre-sabermetric era”) managers hadn’t a clue about how to select a leadoff hitter. The consensus was simple: put your fastest player at the top of the order. Such nonsense produced predictable outcomes. Low on-base percentage players such as Frank Taveras, Freddie Patek and Omar Moreno weren’t only leading off, but were considered good at it.

Perhaps the worst use of a hitter was in San Francisco. The Giants’ Bobby Bonds could hit 30 home runs but he was also fast, so he batted leadoff. The power-starved Giants should have dropped Bonds into the middle of the lineup, but they usually didn’t. Even after Willie Mays left the club, Chris Speier, Elliott Maddox, Steve Ontiveros, Dave Kingman and Ed Goodson all were given opportunities to bat in the heart of the order instead of Bonds. With that kind of thinking, it’s little wonder that the Giants struggled.

Thankfully, strategy evolved – managers know that speed is not the sole criteria for selecting leadoff men. Except, that is, on Chicago’s North Side. Alfonso Soriano should not be leading off for the Cubs. It’s as if we’re watching a Hollywood sequel: Bobby Bonds II. Soriano’s misuse as a leadoff man is costing the Cubs runs.

Alfonso Soriano is not a good leadoff hitter. He was primarily a leadoff hitter in 2002- 2003, and 2006-2007. He is, of course, still batting leadoff in 2008 (and off to a slow start, but he’ll improve). In his first four seasons as a leadoff man Soriano’s on-base percentages (as a leadoff hitter) were .329, .342, .368, and .345. These numbers were only slightly better than the major league average for leadoff hitters (.332, .333, .343, and .345). In terms of on-base percentage – the most meaningful statistic for leadoff hitters today – Soriano is only average.

Worse, the Cubs are wasting Soriano’s power. During 2002-2003 and 2006-2008 Soriano hit 159 home runs, yet those home runs only yielded 224 RBIs. In other words, Soriano has driven home a total of 65 base runners on home runs in four-plus seasons. 111 of Soriano’s 159 home runs were solo shots.

This is far below average. Alfonso Soriano has hit 244 career home runs. 14 other active players have between 224 and 264 career homers. Here’s the value of their home runs:

Soriano is the only leadoff hitter in the group; the Cubs are cheating themselves of the full value of his home runs. This is particularly true in the National League where Soriano bats behind the pitcher after the first inning.

It’s true that Soriano’s two seasons in the heart of the order (he batted third and fifth in 2004-2005) weren’t his best seasons. Nevertheless, this corresponds solely with his time in Texas; it’s time to give him another chance to drive home runs from a spot lower in the lineup.

The solution is simple. The Cubs should drop Soriano to fifth and move newcomer Kosuke Fukudome to the top of the order. Fukudome is demonstrating the talent that makes a man a good leadoff hitter. Fukudome currently boasts an on-base percentage over .400 and has some speed. He’s also hit only two home runs; power not indicative of a number five hitter.

The Cubs ought to switch Soriano and Fukudome in the line-up. If they don’t, they should switch back to their pre-sabermetric robin egg blue uniforms.