FanNation

No one expected the Houston Astros to really compete this year (except perhaps their own general manager Ed Wade), but through the middle of May, they have managed to stay right with the hot-starting Chicago Cubs and surprisingly successful St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. They have managed to do so behind strong production from the middle of their lineup and solid middle relief, both of which are currently compensating for weak starting pitching and no production from the leadoff spot or the bottom third of the lineup.

The Astros rotation has one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that’s Shawn Chacon, who made four starts (and 60 relief appearances) all of last year. To have faith that his success will continue takes more conviction than any fan should have. The only other starter who has had any success this season is Wandy Rodriguez, and he is currently on the shelf with a sore groin. Even perennial all-star Roy Oswalt has struggled, though I’m going to make the assumption he will turn things around.

Tejada/Berkman/Lee/Pence form one of the best 3-6 combinations in the National League, but the line-up also includes two regulars batting under .200 (Michael Bourn and J.R. Towles). Both Bourn and Towles are in their first full seasons, and fans can expect them to improve as the season continues. They can’t possibly hit any less, can’t they?.

So the most pressing issue is the rotation. The Astros need another reliable starter. They will score enough runs to be competitive, but they need someone to keep them in games. The rotation as it stands now is:

1. Roy Oswalt (5.33 ERA)
2. Brandon Backe (4.64)
3. Shawn Chacon (3.53)
4. Chris Sampson (6.27 ouch!)
5. Brian Moehler (4.26, one start), who replaced Jack Cassel (5.59, two starts), who replaced the injured Wandy Rodriguez

Oswalt will turn things around, and Backe has been consistent, if nothing else. Expect Chacon to regress some, but he can still be reliable as a fifth starter. Once Rodriguez comes back, he will be the number 2, bumping Backe down to 3 where he belongs and Chacon to 4. This leaves one hole in the rotation which they need to fill to remain competitive in at least the wild card race. But where could they possibly find extra pitching?

They don’t need an ace (although it would be nice), but more importantly, after cleaning out their farm system in trades for Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde, they don’t have the prospects to get one anyway. The Astros need someone who can be make his starts every fifth day and get them through six innings.

Few teams are in a position to be trading away such a player, but the San Diego Padres might very well be one of them. Currently with the worst record in baseball, the Padres, already nine games back of the division leading Arizona Diamondbacks, see little hope on the horizon of turning their season around. Only in mid-May, they might be looking to unload some of their veteran players in the start of what should be a quick rebuilding process. They have no reason to unload good young pitchers like reigning Cy Young winner Jake Peavy or Chris Young, but after taking a one-year flyer on left-hander Randy Wolf this off-season, they have little reason to hold on to him when he could garner a decent haul in return for a trade.

Over the past few years Wolf has hardly been a model for healthy pitchers, but he has made his starts this year and has performed with relative consistency. His one-year deal valued at $4.5 million for the full year would be pro-rated for the rest of the season and would be as reasonable a financial commitment as the Astros could find.

So what would the Astros need to give up to land Wolf? More importantly, what do they have left to offer?

The Astros have next to nothing left. Baseball America rated their farm system as last coming into the season, and that included two prospects in their top 10 (No. 1 Towles and No. 4 Bourn) that are currently in their major league lineup. Their No. 2 prospect (SP Felipe Paulino) is injured, and their No. 3 prospect (P Juan Gutierrez) was traded to the Diamondbacks in the Valverde deal. The rest of their top-10 only qualifies by default.

Many experts and fans (myself included) disagreed (and still do) with Wade’s philosophy of trading prospects for veterans since it didn’t look like they’d be able to compete in 2008. Even now, the Astros roster is not strong enough to remain competitive, so more will need to be done. If they were willing to mortgage the future to win now, they had better make sure they win. While giving up more young talent to acquire another veteran will leave the cupboard barer than it already is, the Astros have already gone this far and must continue down this path to the end. To not follow through with the plan would mean it was all for naught. Once you have 90 % of your chips in the pot, you might as well go all in.

Astros get:

• Randy Wolf – SP
• Brian Giles – OF

Padres get:

• Michael Bourn – OF
• Wesley Wright – RP
• Jack Cassel – SP/RP

The benefit to the Astros here is fairly obvious, and it would be immediate and substantial. Wolf will change the face of their rotation as long as he remains healthy. Giles would move right to the leadoff spot in the order and his .380 OBP would be a lineup-changing upgrade over Bourn’s .269. He would play right field and Hunter Pence would shift back over to CF, where he played last year. When Rodriguez returns, the new Astros would look like this:

1. Giles (RF)
2. Matsui (2B)
3. Tejada (SS)
4. Berkman (1B)
5. Lee (LF)
6. Pence (CF)
7. Wigginton/Blum (3B)
8. Towles (Catcher)

1. Oswalt
2. Rodriguez
3. Wolf
4. Backe
5. Chacon

Whoa. That’s good enough to compete for the wild card at least, and that offense and the top three in the rotation could position them for a run in the playoffs.

The deal is extremely short-sighted for the Astros, but so has been their entire off-season philosophy. It makes little sense to stop now. The only snag on this deal would be owner Drayton McLane’s refusal to take on Giles’ salary. Giles is making $9 million this year, and it will take a $3 million buyout to get out of his $9 million for 2009 should the Astros want to do so. Not only is McLane’s willingness to accept this contract to his team an important variable, but so is the Padres’ desire to unload it from their roster.

This deal does not return equal market value to the Padres, as the Astros do not have the prospects available to even equal the value of Wolf alone. The Padres interest in this deal would lie in two places:

• Their desire to unload the contract of Brian Giles
• Their interest in Michael Bourn

Bourn is the only real piece the Padres would get in return that would have substantial value for them. Wright is a young reliever having some success and Cassel is a known commodity to the Padres as he was with them in 2007, but neither offers substantial value. The success of the deal for the Padres would hinge on Bourn.

Bourn, still just 25, has been a top 10 prospect in two different organizations and, while currently batting below .200, he has shown an average eye at the plate and is leading the league in stolen bases (a perfect 17-for-17). He’s also playing a strong centerfield, something that would prove invaluable in spacious Petco Park. Bourn profiles as a .270 hitter (which would put him at around .340 OBP given his career walk rates), and that is enough for him to lead the league in steals (by far) and get on base enough to be the top of the order threat needed to play “small ball” at Petco. The Padres do not have any players like this in their organization at any level.

The most important factor in this deal, however, is the unloading of Giles’ salary. While McLane might not want to take on the extra money, he must realize (although probably would not) that his general manager has absolutely nothing to offer, so all he can do to acquire the players he needs is to take on salaries that other teams do not want. It is similar to how the Red Sox were able to get Josh Beckett from the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez (among others), simply because they were willing to take on the Marlins contract with Mike Lowell. In hindsight, that worked out pretty well for both sides.

This deal does not have quite that potential, but the theories are the same. The Padres 2008 payroll of $73 million plus is as high as it has ever been, and with their performance so far this year, it seems certain that things will change this off-season.

The Padres have a substantial amount of money coming off the books after 2008. If you were to include the $9 million owed to Giles now coming off via this trade, they would have over $35 million of expiring contracts while losing only 5 players: Greg Maddux, Giles, Trevor Hoffman, Wolf, and Tadahito Iguchi. That equals almost half the Padres payroll.

The Padres also would be able to maintain their strong young nucleus of Peavy, Young, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, and top prospect Chase Headley. Michael Bourn would add a dimension of speed noticeably missing from this group of talented players. It was this nucleus that they thought would have them in contention this season, but will now keep them from having to go through a 3-5 year rebuilding phase. They should be able to respond relatively quickly.

This deal would allow Padres general manager Kevin Towers to spend over $20 million this off-season (should he so choose) and still only bring the payroll up to the 2004-07 levels of between $50-65 million. With a free agent class potentially full of power hitters like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell and pitchers like C.C. Sabathia, Towers might be able to find some productive ways to spend another $20M per year.

This deal is all about plans. The Astros have demonstrated they think they can win now. If they truly believe it (which they better because no one else seems to) then they need to follow through with it one hundred percent. The Padres had a plan for this year, but it has not worked. Luckily, their rebuilding phase will be expedited because of their strong core of young players. Adding Bourn to this mix will help, and they will need only the addition of a few key free agents to once again be competitive in the NL West.