Today's Absurd Prediction:
The Panthers will once again fail to send any players to Hawai'i.
Last year, the Panthers didn't have a single Pro Bowler, not even an injury replacement. This year, I expect the same. This means Steve Smith and Julius Peppers not having a renaissance year, DeAngelo Williams not stepping up as the starting RB, the NFC East linemen dominating those selections largely based on name recognition, and none of the young guys turning the corner to be come superstars at this time.
Coaching Changes: The Less Things Change, The More They Stay The Same (A)
It looks like the whole crew is staying together this year; not a single new name has been brought on to the coaching staff. Many of their assistant coaches have been there for five years or longer. However, John Fox is often brought up as a “hot seat” coach for this year, and if he disappoints this season, he and several assistants are likely to be replaced. It’ll be interesting to see Jeff Davidson’s performance in his second year as offensive coordinator – his climb up the coaching ranks has been steady, and if he puts together a good offense, he could enter the mix as a head coaching candidate in a few years.
Draft: The Panthers didn’t need a QB like I don’t need health insurance (C+)
Jonathan Stewart is my kind of running back, short and big, patient finding holes, and fighting past initial contact for additional yards. He’s a great fit for Carolina – he’s not unlike Stephen Davis – and should flourish in a system that prioritizes power running and a strong offensive line. However, his ability to effectively platoon with DeAngelo Williams is questionable; neither is a speed guy, so defenses can stock up on run stuffers and not worry about getting burned around the end. OT Jeff Otah was a good value pick at 19th overall; he plays the position smartly and seems hard to knock off balance. I’m not a big fan of CB Charles Godfrey – he seems like the type to go for the big play, and I imagine he’ll give up a number of touchdowns at the NFL level by making bad decisions. ILB Dan Connor was a smart choice to replace Dan Morgan, though something strikes me as odd about the way he tackles; maybe it’s just that he keeps holding on to the ballcarrier long after the whistle blows. He’s a guy who can anchor the defense for a long time; what he lacks in physical skills he makes up with his mentality. Connor is a very smart and hungry player. TE Gary Barnidge isn’t much of a blocker, and I don’t really see what he’s doing in Carolina. It’s not a good fit. DT Nick Hayden can make a play or two in relief, but can’t hold up for a full game, and seventh-rounders DE Hilee Taylor, OT Geoff Schwartz, and G Mackenzy Bernadeau probably won’t get past special-teams play. Taylor is too small to play DE, Schwartz can’t move side-to-side fast enough, and I don’t know anything about Bernadeau, which probably isn’t a good sign. But here’s what I can’t understand most of all about the Panthers’ draft. Last year, you’re so desperate for a passer that you call a 43-year-old out of retirement, then later have to start an undrafted rookie, and you lose the division to Tampa Bay, who, instead of trusting that all will go well, stockpiles quarterbacks like a nuclear holocaust is coming. This year, with nine picks, you draft zero quarterbacks. I’m not saying they should have taken Flacco in the first round (though I thought they would), but instead of Barnidge, they could have gotten very good value by drafting Erik Ainge, Matt Flynn, or Josh Johnson, who by the way went to Tampa Bay.
Player Movement:
The Panthers had to make some tough cuts, including the perpetually concussed Dan Morgan (insensitive, I know, I just wanted to say “perpetually concussed”), G Justin Hartwig, and DeShaun Foster, the last of which came as a surprise to me, considering the general effectiveness of the Foster-Williams pairing over the past two seasons. They also cut David Carr, but I don’t see that as a “tough cut.” Mike Rucker’s retirement leaves them weak at defensive end. Free agency defections from the Panthers include WRs Keary Colbert and Drew Carter. The team plugged a few holes through free agency – at guard, they pulled in Toniu Fonoti and Keydrick Vincent; at RB they picked up LaBrandon Toefield, and at defensive tackle they took two guys from the Bears, Ian Scott and Darwin Walker. WR D.J. Hackett and the return of Muhsin Muhammad form the latest attempt to get another target in the receiving game, and Ricardo Colclough and Terrence Holt bolster the secondary. But I don’t think new DE Tyler Brayton will offset the loss of Rucker – they needed to upgrade the position, not downgrade it. The solution to the “what happened to Julius Peppers” problem would have been to give the defense another rusher they have to worry about, and the Panthers didn’t address that through free agency nor the draft. And if you’re keeping count, they didn’t add any quarterbacks either. Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, Brett Basanez – that’s your depth chart.
Other Considerations:
There are new faces on the offensive line, which could throw off the blocking game for a little while until they get good at working together. It’s tough to see how the Panthers will be able to handle injuries at most positions, and there’s plenty of historical reason to believe that Steve Smith or Jake Delhomme might not make it for all 16 games. Matt Moore did well in three games to close out the season, and all against division champs, so he should be given a chance, but keep in mind: it was only three games, his performance was seen as good because he came out of nowhere, and teams had no idea what to prepare for. He’s got a lot to prove.
The Grade: The Panthers will have a C- season, which may not be enough to save John Fox's job.
Other predictions:




Jessica White
Jarah Mariano

Comments (16) Add A Comment
The bombs have fallen, the fallout rests lightly on every surface, you unseal and open a metal hatch with a nuclear symbol on it, you climb down a ladder into the fallout shelter, and what do you see? John Gruden playing poker with six or seven quarterbacks.
Great blog as always, Dan.
Curly Lambeau
Total Comments (4520)
HAHA Curly.
I think you're being generous with the C-. But the biggest plus they have is, like you said, the coaching staff is unchanged. And that can have a huge impact.
Very nice job Dan.
i B4 e:FN blows…
Austin, TX
Total Comments (6340)
Perpetually Concussed ?
I like it !
Im stealing it !
As always.. a well done blog !
KPKahder
Still Believe, MA
Total Comments (37088)
God Dan, if your going in order, the Patriots wont be up for MONTHS !
KPKahder
Still Believe, MA
Total Comments (37088)
Hartwig was a center that was released, not a guard, Wahle was the guard the Panthers released, who later signed with the Seahawks. If you going to talk junk about the Panthers, at least get your facts straight. Are you getting paid for this?
Robs
Total Comments (4)
Rob, the Steelers are considering moving Hartwig to Guard.. maybe thats what he meant ?
KPKahder
Still Believe, MA
Total Comments (37088)
Lighten up Robs. Just because the Panthers sucked last year don't take it out on a man just sharing his opinion.
i B4 e:FN blows…
Austin, TX
Total Comments (6340)
Smith will return to the pro-bowl as Jake has returned and he has more receivers to take the double teams off him. Peppers is in a contract year and players always do their best work in contract years. He will have something to prove and get 12-15 sacks this year.
Godfrey if you didn't know was a corner for Iowa in 2007. He didn't surrender 1 TD all year while getting 5 picks, 9 PDs and 65 tackles. How he is now going to give up a ton of them playing slot receivers and deep cover as a free safety.
Connor is currently listed as a third teamer in OTAs behind Johnson and Diggs. Johnson had 143 tackles to lead Cincy before being traded to Carolina. Connor won't see the field much this year but will play on STs.
Barnidge won't play in run sets, King and Rosario will. But Barnidge runs a 4.6 and at 6'5" and 247lbs is a receiver in a TE body. Few safeties or linebackers will keep up with him as we use him to stretch the field.
Tell me why we would draft a quarterback in the third round to sit on the bench for years as a back-up when we have Moore who was 2-1 as a starter and had a passer rating of 87 against Tampa, Seattle and Dallas (all playoff teams). Maybe Ainge would do better?? Basanez is also there and this is his second year in Davidson's scheme.
Jake is healthy two months ahead of schedule. He injured his elbow in 2003 and played another 4 years and took 100 sacks on that bum elbow before it finally blew in 2007. How is he now fragile after his elbow is surgically repaired and he has rehabbed his whole body for the past 9 months. Sure it is Tommy John surgery but Jake is a fast healer. In 2006 he hurt his thumb on his throwing arm and was supposed to be out 6 weeks but came back in three. If he were a major league pither, then maybe but non-pitchers routinely come back in 7 months. The torque on his arm is not nearly the same as a major league pitcher who throw 90 MPH curves and sliders on a pitch count often over 100 on a five day rotation.
Finally they have more depth at most positions then they ever have. We can withstand an injury to most positions without much of a dropoff. As for Smith, he has not mised a game since the 3rd game of the 2005 season. How is he injury prone??
I could go on about Brayton and Taylor, etc. But suffice it to say that you appear to form your opinions from reading too much ESPN and popular opinion. Visit some message boards and local writer's articles and blogs of the teams you write about. Many times they can give you a better understanding then the supposed experts.
Panthers55
Concord , NC
Total Comments (1)
If Stewart is better at power running than Foster was, they'll be a great tandem. That alone will be worth a win.
Last year Carr was horrible, and that's why they were scrambling at QB. This year they have Delhomme back, and two young QBs that they trust. It's not bad depth, and the Panthers don't depend on their QB to win games. If Delhomme lasts the season, that's easily worth a win or two.
This year the schedule is pretty soft on the Panthers. They play the Falcons twice, the Raiders, the Chiefs, the Broncos, the Lions and the Cardinals. That's a lot of cupcakes compared to last year, which might be worth a win itself.
Last year the Panthers went 7-9 despite the injuries and terrible QB play. They only managed 16 points a game. If they can improve on that and get it to the 22-24 range, then they're likely a playoff team.
Just my absurd prediction... :)
Cyberjag
Concord , NC
Total Comments (2)
definitely a "glass half empty" point of view, and I may be being very generous.
The only reason you draft a QB and pay him that kind of money is if you think Jake is not gonna return healthy. Obviously Fox and co. felt confident enough about Jake during the draft and did not think that Ainge (or the others mentioned) would do any better than what Moore or Basanez could in necessary relief.
If that is the biggest portion of his complaint, I do not see any reason to read future submissions.
No mention of Godfrey or the versatility Carolina gains with the players they picked up or how they added depth at key positions for down the road. He mentioned "special teamers" like that was some kind of curse carefully forgetting how dismal kickoff coverage was last season and that it is a definite need in Charlotte. He thinks Brayton is a downgrade to Rucker and while that may prove true over Rucks whole career, Ruck had nothing in the tank last year. Tyler Brayton is a young athletic machine who is hungry to get an opportunity to prove his 1st round status and is DEFINITELY an upgrade compared to what Carolina had opposite Pepp in 07 in my opinion. He is physically capable and comes packaged with a very favorable hunger/price ratio attached which makes him a stellar pickup as cap space goes.
Downplaying Moose and Hackett after making a point to bring the Carter/Colbert "FA defection" to light is almost as damning a path of logic as any sports writer or fan can have as far as credibility goes.
Also I agree that neither RB is "fast" but they are both very quick and very strong and that is precisely what a power game is looking for...
Duuuuh!! Didn't the dude acknowledge that he understands that this is the offense Carolina runs?????
So Dan, in short, please relay the message to all those "dominant" teams in the east to stuff the inside run, not to ever worry about a bounce, and basically stack the box since Smith won't have a "renaissance year", we lost Colbert and Carter, and we did not draft Danny Ainge.
carolinarolls
Total Comments (1)
wow, lotta novelists in Carolina. I've got catching up to do.
KP is right, Robs, I saw Hartwig now listed as a guard and mentioned him as such... it didn't sound right, I thought I remembered him as a center. If I had a team of editors, this kind of thing wouldn't happen.
Curly, i, KP, thanks for stopping by as always.
The other guys - you each get your own comment, hang on.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2104)
Panthers55, I don't read much ESPN at all, I'm an SI and Yahoo! guy, but none of those helped me form my opinions of the Panthers much. They're too busy talking about Spygate and Jason Taylor. I also didn't read any of the local guys - I agree with you that they and you know the team more intimately than I do, but I have something you don't - objectivity, so I won't agree that you can look at your team's chances this year more realistically.
Since I'm so determined to look at these teams as objectively as possible, I do most of my blog based on stats and video research, particularly of the rookies. Most of the players drafted have video clips that I watch on SI.com or rivals.com. I watch the videos first, make my impressions, then read scouting reports to see if what scouts say match what I see. I understand, in watching the video, that it's a highlight reel; I'm not going to see when they blow a play. But I can see from the way a guy plays what kind of mistakes he might make; if he makes an interception on a play because he gambled and got lucky, or because he read the situation and took the right course of action. This brings us to your guy, Godfrey.
You ask, based on his college stats, how he's going to give up TDs against slot receivers, etc. Have you considered the fact that in college, he was mostly playing against guys who WON'T EVER be good enough for the NFL? Who was that one TD given up to? Could it have been James Hardy's 39-yarder on Sept. 29th? James Hardy... got drafted by the Bills and will possibly be the sort of guy Godfrey will have to cover in the NFL as his team's #3 receiver.
We love WRs in TE's bodies, don't we? By we, I mean you, because I don't. And if Carolina's a power running team, shouldn't they be more concerned about run blocking TEs?
Yes, Jake is a fast healer, but he's also a fast hurter. The guy has missed games. They need a backup. Steve Smith has missed three games in the past two years, and if injury isn't the reason his numbers have steadily declined, what else could it be, and why should we believe he'll be back to his Pro Bowl self?
That ought to do it for you.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2104)
Cyberjag, your points are fine. Except I take issue with one of them - it's ludicrous to assess strength of schedule based on last year's performance, when teams easily jump from playoff caliber to bottom-feeder and back all the time. But you didn't feel the need to rip me while disagreeing, so I'll leave it at that, and say thanks for reading.
Thanks for reading!
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2104)
carolinarolls - is that anything like California rolls? Mmm... - I'm talking about a fifth-round pick. Those guys don't cost much. And Moore is a fine #2 option, but making Basanez compete with someone for #3 is a GOOD IDEA.
Should I be talking about you in the third person? Gotta say THAT was a turnoff.
"No mention of Godfrey," except for the part where I mentioned Godfrey.
Brayton's the sort of guy who could surprise us all and face-plant all six Bucs quarterbacks in one game. But the fact is, the Raiders weren't interested in extending his contract, either because of ineffective play or anger problems. The Raiders.
As for the mention of the WRs coming and going - and let's face it, it's a constant revolving door in Carolina - dude, it was a list of transactions. And if you think I'm crazy to think that an aging Moose and D.J. Hackett won't do better than Carter and Colbert... I think you're crazy.
And I assume you meant Erik Ainge, not Danny. Was that a joke, or a beautifully ironic un-researched fact at the end of your critical piece on my blog?
Oh, and just for the record, of course I don't get paid for this. But you're welcome to send me a check.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2104)
Dan -- at the risk of sounding like I'm just your fanboy, I thought your views on the players and draft were dead on accurate. Frankly, I've love to see the Panthers have a good year, but I just don't know what Fox is doing.
I've got a friend here in Indy who's a Panthers fan, and he insists the problem is John Fox -- that he's not a tough enough coach for the style of play and the personnel they have. I'm not sure I agree with him on the specifics, but I have to wonder if the time has come for a new coaching regime. I know you liked that the coaching hadn't changed, but the Panthers haven't done much in a while... at what point does a consistent coaching staff become a liability?
strangedavid
Bargersville , IN
Total Comments (92)
Thanks, David. I don't think toughness is Fox's problem, but if he lost the locker room like Brian Billick did in Baltimore last year, it wouldn't surprise me. But yeah, when I say I like continuity in a coaching staff, I really mean I don't like discontinuity because it's the sort of thing that can go overlooked and cause a team to tank the season, even if it helps in the long run. Since I'm looking season-by-season, I'm just worried about the immediate effect, therefore continuity =good.
Dan TM is Stupendous…
Evanston , IL
Total Comments (2104)
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