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Paul Catalano: Time To Trade Melky

The Yankees should trade Melky Cabrera for the same reason they called up Brett Gardner: there are better options out there.

That’s not to say that Melky isn’t any good. He covers Yankee Stadium’s spacious centerfield well and his arm is the best they’ve had in center in many a season. That said, it is becoming clear that his bat is not going to develop the way the Yankees had hoped and most likely won’t be much more than a no. 8 hitter in the Yankee line-up. His hitting against lefties has gotten progressively worse (.198 BA against lefties this year). He’s always had trouble against power pitchers (lifetime .245 BAA) as well as finesse pitchers (lifetime .241 BAA), but has done well against junkballers. Overall, Melky is the kind of hitter who may do well against back-of-the-rotation types, but can’t handle a good pitcher. Melky is adequate.

Adequate won’t cut it in Yankeeland. Especially not when there are other options. And there are. While Melky’s OBP is .309 and falling and his slugging is a sad .350, AAA prospect Brett Gardner in Scranton has an OBP of .412 and a slugging percentage of .429. He also has 34 stolen bases and an astonishing 10 triples!! Also, in 2006 Baseball America rated Gardner the best defensive outfielder in the Yankee system. Gardner, 24, could over time develop into a leadoff-pest type of run-producer who can take the extra base, be a threat to steal, and be a constant worry for opposing pitchers and catchers. And Lord knows his speed would be a jolt to the Yankees poky, station-to-station base-running roster. Currently, the Yankees have 48 stolen bases. To wit, the Devil Rays have 88, the Red Sox 74.

OK, so who can the Yankees get for Melky? Well, sure I’d love to shoot pie-in-the-sky and go for names like Eric Bedard or Ben Sheets, but the guy who the Yankees could realistically trade for and get great value for in return is a lesser-known name: Damaso Marte. A lefty reliever for the Pirates, Marte is exactly what the Yankees need; that is, a bullpen lefty who can get opposing lefties out. Marte has a dominating lifetime .198 BAA against lefty batters, something the Yankees will surely crave come the next time Big Papi is up with two on. Also, unlike a lot of National League pitchers who fold once they get to the American League, Marte has pitched in the AL before, and has pitched well. For four years, he threw for the Chicago White Sox and highest ERA was 3.77.

To the Yankees, Marte would be the unicorn standing next to a four-leaf clover at the end of a rainbow – an experienced lefty out of the pen come October.

It probably will take more than just Melky to get Marte. The Yanks might have to take Adam LaRoche off the Pirates hands as part of a Pirates salary dump: LaRoche is making $5M while batting a soggy .221. And the Yankees might even have to throw in a low to mid-level prospect to get the deal done. Mitch Hilligoss should do it.

Some might say this trade is too costly for the Yankees. After all, Melky is just 23, is a good defensive outfielder, and is a streaky hitter who can get hot—in fact, it was about this time last year when he got hot. However, the proposed trade is worth it. Marte can help a weak situation become strong and there are other options in centerfield. Better ones.

Don Ehrke: Don’t Sell Low

The art of business is knowing when to buy and when to sell. Today’s bargain may be tomorrow’s bust – or bonanza. We buy “low” in the hope of selling “high.”

Melky Cabrera presents a similar dilemma to the New York Yankees. Should they sell him now while he still has some value or should they keep him in the hope of future returns?

A quick glance at Cabrera’s performance indicates that the Yankees should trade him to another team. Cabrera’s OPS+ declined from 95 in 2006 to 89 in 2007. Midway through 2008, Cabrera’s descent continues; currently his OPS+ sits at a disappointing 78. While Cabrera’s defensive value is not included in OPS+ his lack of offensive development should concern the Yankee front office; maybe it’s time to move Cabrera before his value disintegrates any further.

But if the Yankees trade Cabrera now they would be guilty of the classic mistake of selling low; they’ve paid the price for Cabrera’s development and are about to trade him just when he’s prepared to pay dividends.

Besides defense, OPS+ doesn’t include age. Melky Cabrera is only 23 years old; many youngsters who play at his level mature into outstanding performers as they enter their prime seasons. Consider Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg. At age 22 Sandberg’s OPS+ was 90, at age 23 it slipped to 82. Sandberg’s OPS+ at 24 was 140. If the Cubs had traded Sandberg at age 23 they would have lost the services of the best second baseman of his generation.

Sandberg isn’t the only example; Cabrera can look across the clubhouse for inspiration. Johnny Damon’s OPS+ was 97 at age 21 before it regressed to 73 the following season. At 23 Damon’s OPS+ was still a substandard 88. At 24, it jumped to 100. The Tampa Bay Rays drafted current Yankee Bobby Abreu from the Astros and traded him to Philadelphia for Kevin Stocker. Abreu’s OPS+ in Houston at age 23 was 87; for the Phillies at age 24 it was 136.

Predicting the future based on the past is always a dangerous proposition. While there are countless examples of players greatly improving their performance at Cabrera’s age there are also examples of players who failed to mature. Nevertheless, the Yankees are taking a terrible risk in trading Cabrera now. It’s worth their patience to let him develop. If he doesn’t improve, they probably won’t get much less for him in a year than they will now; if Cabrera makes great strides, the Yankees will be glad to have kept him.

Never sell low.