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Point/Counter-point

Wayne: Burnett to the Yankees Would be Just What the Playoff Doctor Ordered

Most of the would-be American League playoff teams are one solid bat or one solid arm away from giving their club the advantage heading into the last 50 games of the season. GMs and fans think alike in this manner: What impact would a Jason Bay have on the young Rays? Will a Francisco Liriano call-up put the Twins over the top, or do they need to make a move for an Adam Dunn?

And of course, no mid-season transaction discussion is complete without the following question: When will the Yankees make a move?

Most people felt the Bombers would go after CC Sabathia, but surprisingly enough the Brewers jumped in and took the big lefty off the market before anyone in the Bronx could say “yea” or “nay”. Now it would appear that the best starter option for the Yankees is Blue Jays hurler A.J. Burnett.

Burnett is having a down year in terms of his ERA: 4.84 versus a career 3.88 and an 85 ERA+ versus a career 109 ERA+. But aside from this year, Burnett has been quite consistent in ERA, posting ERA+ of 112, 115, 115 and 119 over the past four years.

Importantly for the Yankees, Burnett has the ability to dominate games, as witnessed by his eight strikeout, one run win over the Yankees on July 13. Burnett is leading the American League in strikeouts with 132. In fact, Burnett’s 8.232 strikeout per nine inning rate ranks 11th among active pitchers and 22nd all time. When healthy, Burnett has the potential to dominate. And he’s healthy this year.

The Yankees haven’t had a dominant strikeout pitcher as a frontline starter since 2003. That year, when the Yankees won 101 games, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina all had strikeout/nine inning rates of around 8.0.

Couple Burnett with newly anointed full-time starter and fellow strikeout demon Joba Chamberlain (10.6 strikeouts per nine innings), and the Yankees would have a pair of aces who could sit down 20 or more opposing hitters on back to back days without ever having the ball put into play. That’s the type of production that gets a team deep into the playoffs – and helps them get to the playoffs.

Throw in the veteran savvy and playoff tested mentalities of Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, and the Yankees would have the starting staff to make another run. They have the offense; now the Yankees need to make A.J. Burnett that final piece to the puzzle.

Moore: Stay Away From Burnett

There is no doubt the Yankees need another arm, and A.J. Burnett has a good one. Burnett would be an upgrade over Darrell Rasner, whose smoke and mirrors effectiveness is beginning to fade, and Sidney Ponson, who is about as stable as the San Andres Fault. If it were as simple as plugging Burnett into the rotation, sitting back, and cruising to the playoffs, the deal would already be done.

Of course, it is not that easy.

There is much more to Burnett’s situation, the main component of which is his contract. Burnett is in complete control of his situation, which makes most general managers nervous. He has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years of his contract after this year, which he might do if he thinks he can sign another long-term deal this off-season. If he continues with his current struggles, he is likely to stick around and take the $24 million that is owed to him in 2009-2010. While many teams would prefer to have Burnett stay for the additional two years if they have to give up any top prospects in the deal, they don’t want to be stuck with an average pitcher to the tune of $12 million annually. More importantly, general managers need to be the ones who make the decision, not the player.

The prospects needed to acquire Burnett are another issue. The Blue Jays are looking for at least as much as they would receive in compensation should Burnett leave via free agency at the end of the season. If he leaves, the Blue Jays will receive a couple of high draft picks, so they essentially will be asking for two players, each with first-round talent.

That’s a lot to give up for two months of A.J. Burnett.

From the Yankees, the Blue Jays would be looking for either one of their young outfielders (Jose Tabata or Austin Jackson) or one of their young pitchers (Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy). More than likely, it would take one of each to get Burnett out of Toronto.

If Burnett was a difference-maker for the Yankees (the way CC Sabathia is for the Milwaukee Brewers), then he would be worth consideration. But the way it stands now, Burnett might not even start in the post-season, should the Yankees indeed get there. Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Joba Chamberlain would all take the mound before Burnett. And that doesn’t even take into consideration the potential return of Chien-Ming Wang.

Another issue with Burnett is his injury history. The Yankees have had their fill of mediocre pitchers with injury problems and large contracts. Burnett might be a better version, but he has all the same symptoms and risks as Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. Burnett has only made 30 starts once in the last five seasons, and even the Yankees can’t afford to waste more money on disabled pitchers.

All in all, Burnett could help the Yankees, but the negatives simply outweigh the positives. The Yankees would benefit significantly more from acquiring bullpen help.