*** A NOTE *** You might have seen that a Cowboys homerwrote thi, and have just expected I picked the Cowboys to win. You're wrong. I think the Cowboys WILL win the game, but I have NOT picked a winner in the blog.
Now, I was thinking about the Cowboys- Packers game, and, for all the talk about how much hype there would be, there has been surprisingly litte talk compared to other games. However, that is likely due to a certain unfortunate happening that happened this week in the NFL.
Anyways, I was thinking of breaking this game down piece by piece. But I don't have the time right now, and I know that I wouldn't convince any of you. So I am gonna borrow some words from Dr. Z (who I think nailed it on the head with his analysis), and then throw in my two cents on what I would do if I were the defensive co-ordinator for either team.
First, Dr. Z's analysis of the game (as seen on his Power Rankings):
| 2 | 2 | ![]() | Dallas Cowboys (10-1) I think a big part of the Thursday nighter against Green Bay will be which officiating crew is assigned to the game. Various scribes and announcers have described Packers cornerback Al Harris as a "shutdown corner," which is nonsense. He doesn't shut anyone down, he roughs 'em up, and if it'll be the kind of crew that is fairly liberal, then he'll be in decent shape in his battle against T.O., which everyone assumes will take place all over the field. But if it's one of those prissy crews that calls everything tight, Al will get two, maybe three, interference calls and T.O. and Tony Romo will have a big night. |
| 3 | 3 | ![]() | Green Bay Packers (10-1) I'm really curious to see if they'll come out with the same run 'n shoot type of thing with which they deviled the Lions. I'm guessing they'll slam No. 25, Ryan Grant, into the Cowboy defense for openers, just as a kibbitz, and then voila! Here come the five wideouts spread across, with Favre snapping off his passes to them in 1.5 seconds, and then the Cowboys will start dropping their big, sleek pass rushers, 6-7 Chris Canty, 6-4 DeMarcus Ware, 6-6 Greg Ellis, 6-3 Anthony Spencer, back into coverage ... look, it's the old Zone Blitz! ... fouling up the passing lanes, batting passes in the air. And then, here they come, faking the drop and rushing all at once, the maniac blitz, trying to bloody Favre's nose. Oh yes, it'll be an orgy of strategy. Final score, Cowboys 31, Pack 27. |
Alright. Dr. Z hit it on the HEAD right here. First, what he said in the Cowboys' section. One of the big keys to the game will be the officiating crew. While I don't think he gives Harris enough credit, one of the big things that Harris does IS roughing up receivers, and not always legally. He thrives on contact after five yards, and pushing and shoving while the pass is in the air. If he doesn't get called, he'll have a great night. For some reason, despite his size, TO has seemed to struggle a bit recently when corners get more physical with him. However, if Harris is penalized early, it will force him to back off a bit, as well as give TO a confidence boost, and Harris a morale blow, as you can bet he has been working on getting ready to roughhouse TO all week.
Another storyline to watch is the Charles Woodson situation. Woodson has not practiced much and his toe is still swollen. Turf toe can often take more than a week to heal. Now, the Pack are being very mum on Woodson and calling him a game time decision. This leads me to believe he will be OUT for the game. That would, of course, be a huge blow to the Packers. Patrick Crayton is a shifty receiver who thrives on poling holes in the coverage. But let's be honest, he isn't incredibly gifted physically for an NFL receiver, though he does have a tendency to lull opposing corners into a sense of security, and then bust open for a big play.
Anyway, on to Dr. Z's second point: The zone blitz. What he says there is a phenomenal idea. Now, if Bill Parcells and Mike Zimmer were still the HC/ DC combo, there would beno zone blitzing. It would still be the same vanilla defense that we always had (we'd also be 6-5 instead of 10-1.) However, Wade Philips is much more creative than that. You CAN expect to see all sorts of creative schemes and zone blitzes. One thing people forget about the Cowboys is their size, speed, and athleticism on defense. Not only are DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis great pass rushers, they are also both taller than all of the Packers receivers and tight ends and both are very athletic. DeMarcus Ware is arguably the most nimble and athletic pass rushing linebacker in the NFL. But it isn't just them. Rookie Anthony Spencer can do some damage out there. Also, the defensive line can get into the act. Typically, a 3-4 defensive line isn't one you can zone blitz easily with, as most of the guys are fat wads of flesh. But left end Chris Canty is a highly athletic player. At 6'7", 295 pounds, Canty is one of the most athletic of all defensive linemen in the NFL. His long arms not only come up to clog sight lanes for shorter QBs like Brett Favre (who is only a tad under 6'2"), but the man can run a bit too. You can expect to see some crazy alignments on the Cowboys' behalf thanks to Wade Philips and Brian Stewart. Not to Brett Favre: Watch out if you guys go with two wide receivers and pass. You might suddenly see Chris Canty and 6'6" Greg Ellis where you expected to see Donald Lee, with several linebackers rushing.
Now, obviously there is a downside to this for the Cowboys. If the Cowboys zone blitz and don't get pressure on Favre, he'll pick them apart. Even a veteran like Favre can make a mistake and throw a dumb pass to a guy like Chris Canty when the pressure is in his face and a D-lineman appears where his hot receiver is. But if there is no pressure, the Cowboys are cooked. A zone blitz can only hold up so long. Face it, who do you want out there in coverage: your speedy little linebacker or your defensive end? now, the Steelers have been killing people for years with the zone blitz, but they run the scheme all the time. If the Cowboys run the scheme well, they CAN and WILL win this game. If the Cowboys can get pressure on Favre, he'll throw the little passes to his hot receiver, usually a guy like James Jones. But if a 6'6" guy is there, Favre will be in for a long day. But the risks of the zone blitz are big, and if the Cowboys break down in a zone somewhere or fail to get around the Green Bay offensive line, it could get ugly quickly for the starry helmeted men.
Two other things to watch for: History and linebackers. History- well, Favre is 2-8 all time against the Cowboys. At Texas Stadium, where the game will be held, Favre is a disastrous 0-8. You wouldn't expect this Cowboys team to be the first to lose to Favre in Texas, but the Pack aren't exactly push overs. 2nd- linebackers. Both teams have a lot of depth at linebacker and have some very good linebackers. If the defensive co-ordinators get crafty, you may be in for a linebacker treat. The Cowboys could theoretically play 5 or 6 linebackers at once if they are using the zone blitz. With so many good linebackers, the Cowboys could take a page from the Patriot play book and run a 1-5-5 against three or four receiver sets, with Tank Johnson at the nose, and DeMarcus Ware, Greg Ellis, and Bradie James at linebacker with some combo of Akin Ayodele, Kevin Burnett, Anthony Spencer, and Bobby Carpenter manning the other two spots, with 4 cornerbacks and one safety in the secondary.
The Pack could also go linebacker happy. With KGB likely out, the Pack could opt to confuse Romo instead of pressuring him. They could try an unbalanced line with Aaron Kampmann on one side for a pass rush, with two defensive tackles stacked on the other side of the line with 4 linebackers in the game. For example, they could put a speedy guy like AJ Hawk over Kampmann and blitz him as well for the pressure. Throw in guys like Barnett, Poppinga, and the small but quick Tracy White over the middle of the Cowboys line, and you have an interesting match-up. With the unbalanced tackles over the left side of the line (the offense's right side), the Cowboys would need to commit the right tackle and right guard to the tackles, and probably a tight end as well. You want to commit at least a tackle and tight end to Kampman. However, then the Cowboys are in a heavy protection set. So you'd want to give them the guard and tackle. But this leaves just Andre Gurode and a back in to block. If the Packers blitz, say Tracy White and Nick Barnett, there is a good chance someone will get through and at least get their hands up in front of Romo, if not sack him.
It's all a chess match. This should be a good one.





Larisa & Marisa Coy
Anne V

Comments (6) Add A Comment
Yep, good job. Should be good, agreed. My take:
Although there's no such thing as a sure thing, the Packer's 5-wide set, the way they're playing right now, is pretty close. Nobody's stopped them yet, anyway. It seems questionable as to whether the Pack's D will be healthy/lucky enough to stop Romo, Owens, Barber, Witten, etc. However, I don't see any chance that the Cowboys will stop the Pack's Offense. Blitzing won't work. Favre's seen it all, and the groove he's in with his receivers is nothing short of amazing. Whatever you do, they'll figure it out, adjust, and use it against you.
So, this's just one guy talkin', but I'm very confident that the Pack'll win this one.
Curly Lambeau
Total Comments (4520)
I'd say that Dr. Z was right on about Harris, btw. He gets flagged and gives up plays now and then. But, by the time the game's over, the receiver he's covering has trouble remembering his own name. He consistently makes people look BAD just because he shakes 'em up so much (the two best examples from this year would be Santana Moss and Calvin Johnson. Someone watching those games, if they weren't familiar with Harris and the way he plays, would probably wonder "what's WRONG with him today!" Answer: Al Harris is making him secretly cry for his mother).
Curly Lambeau
Total Comments (4520)
Good analysis but I agree with curly and also, if the Packers were to play an unblanced 3-4 which wouldn't happen because not only is that not thier scheme but KGB is just a pass rush specialist and Cullen Jenkins is the starting DE, but if they did play it Tracy White would not be the 4th Linebacker, he is an OLB and a better cover guy, Desmond Bishop would be the second ILB with Barnett and would be a better hole plugger and pass rusher
Buddhasillegitimatec…
Pacific , MO
Total Comments (2703)
Bishop would also be a better fit for 3-4 because he is a speedy big time hitter rather than a bigger guy
Buddhasillegitimatec…
Pacific , MO
Total Comments (2703)
Yep, right on, Buddasreallylongnamethat'snofuntotype. Tracy White's their special teams guy. ...he's good at it, too, although he's dinged up right now.
Curly Lambeau
Total Comments (4520)
First off, great blog. I love the total breakdown of the defensive schemes and the case for either team to step up and win the game. I felt that a lot of credit was given to the Dallas depth and not the Packers (what with all the name dropping of every Dallas defensive player).
Curly - I believe Harris was on Roy Williams during the Lions game. Woodson was on Johnson until he got hurt. Johnson couldn't catch a ball that came near him that game. Harris, however, picked up Williams and WWE bodyslammed him at the line of scrimmage more than once. I'd give my kidney to see him do that to T.O., not that I wish that he hurt anybody.
I agree with Bud, White would play OLB if at all (he's a special teams guy). I expect Barnett to have a great game and continue to lead the team in tackles.
What wasn't brought up in this blog was the run defense. I believe with such a strong secondary, Romo will find it more difficult to complete the passes he's used to throwing and will have to get Jones and Barber in the mix. GB does have a solid run defense, but Barber is still my favorite RB in the league (I'm a Golden Gopher fan, so I pay attention to the ones that go pro). On the other side, the hybrid zone-blocking of the Packers and the quick decision making of Ryan Grant allow for bigger holes down the field and better opportunities for bigger run gains (they proved this during the Minnesota game).
My plan is to leave work and head straight to the beer hall to reserve a seat under one of those plasma tv screens. I live in Minneapolis, so the only to get ANY Packer game is to go the beer hall, so just because this game is on NFL Network doesn't mean my schedule gets rearranged...well, except that it's on a Thursday night.
I predict Woodson will play and that his injury is under wraps simply to keep Dallas on their toes (no pun intended). Oh yeah, and the Pack will win.
jonnyganas
Minneapolis , MN
Total Comments (53)
Comment
Remember to keep your posts clean. Profanity will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.