FanNation

Cy Guys

Johan Santana and Brandon Webb aren't ready to give up their Cy Young crowns just yet. The reigning owners of the American and National League Cy Youngs, respectively, are making a late charge after slow starts.

Overshadowed for much of the season by the AL's stable of up-and-coming young stars, Santana set a team record on Sunday with 17 strikeouts in a 1-0 win over the Rangers to improve to 13-9 and lower his ERA to 2.88.

Webb, meanwhile, has decided he's never going to allow another run. Back on July 20, after a loss to the Cubs, the master sinkerballer was 8-8 with an ERA of 3.38. Since then, he's 5-0 with an ERA that matches Blutarsky's grade point average: 0.00. Webb's scoreless streak of 42  innings is two shutouts shy of Orel Hershiser's record of 59.

Arizona Dreamin'

On Tuesday night Arizona lost 14-5 to Florida in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. After one of the many pitching changes D'backs manager Bob Melvin had to make, a Marlins TV announcer said, "Melvin hasn't had many nights like this."

Uh, yes he has.

More than two-thirds of the way into the season, the biggest conundrum in baseball has to be the Diamondbacks and how they have managed to lead the National League in wins despite getting taken to the woodshed on a regular basis. Tuesday's rout was just the latest example. On Aug. 2 they lost to the Padres 11-0, and a couple of days before that they gave up two touchdowns in a shutout loss to the Braves.

The blowouts have become so common -- Arizona has allowed double-digit runs in losses 13 times this season -- that the D'backs, despite being 14 games over .500, have been outscored by a healthy margin (30 runs). Going strictly by run differential (or Pythagorean record), the D'backs should have a 57-63 record. Instead, they are 67-53 and sitting in the catbird's seat in the NL West.

That means Arizona is playing 10 games above its run differential, which is unusual but not unheard of (the 2004 Yankees played 12 games above their run differential). The only other team close to the D'backs in this regard is Seattle, another Cinderella contender, which is plus-6. (The Mariners' unlikely success was covered ably recently by Fungoes writer Cliff Corcoran.)

The point of looking at Pythag records isn't necessarily to rule on a team being a fluke or a legit contender. It's more of a model that can serve to tell you some things about a team. For example, one of the tenets of Pythag theory is that the truly good teams win close games and blowouts. They have enough talent to simply overpower teams sometimes. Here are the records of the six current division leaders in one-run games and blowouts (5-plus runs):

Boston Red Sox

What's wrong with Gagne?

Game over? Not quite.

As Boston's lead in the AL East shrinks by the day -- it's down to four games over the rival Yankees heading into Monday's games -- the harsh glare of Red Sox Nation has focused in on Eric Gagne, the formerly indomitable closer for the Dodgers who resurrected his career with the Rangers this season.

The key phrase there being "with the Rangers." Let's all be honest now: How many Rangers games have any of you watched this year and how often had you seen the 2007 version of Gagne take the mound prior to his debut with the Red Sox on Aug. 2?

Pennant Race Predictions

With the trade deadline and the Bonds Watch squarely in the rearview mirror, it's time to take stock of the pennant races. Who's in the race, who's out and who will win? Here are my picks for the American League along with my pithy observations on each ballclub. (For National League picks, go HERE.)

All standings updated heading into Wednesday's games.

AL East

Who's in?
Boston Red Sox
Raise your hand if you thought Coco Crisp  (.402) and Dustin Pedroia  (.436) would both have a higher slugging percentage than J.D. Drew (.378)? Even Julio Lugo (.762 OPS since the break) is starting to hit a little. But the key to this team is run prevention -- pitching and defense. Boston has allowed the fewest runs in the AL, 454, by a wide margin; second-place Oakland has allowed 485.

New York Yankees, 5.0 GB

NL Pennant Race Picks

Who's in the race, who's out and who will win the coveted playoff spots in the National League? See below. (And please click HERE for my American League predictions.)
 
NL East

Who's In?
New York Mets
They don't always make it look easy but this is still the best team in the NL. Its grip on that title is tenuous though, depending greatly on the health of Moises Alou and Carlos Beltran, the nerves of rookie outfielder Lastings Milledge, the fortysomething right arm of Orlando Hernandez and the long-awaited comeback of Pedro Martinez. As much as everybody loves Paul Lo Duca, this is a better team when Ramon Castro gets at-bats.