Sports By The Numbers Guy
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17 days ago
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If a major league team holds a four-and-a-half game lead with 39 games left to play, how many games do they need to win the rest of the season to guarantee baseball in October for their fans? What if the second place team only has 38 games left to play – and they trail by five in the loss column?
Well, it depends.
If you told me the team in question is the New York Yankees then I’d say they need to post 21-18 and see how bad the Red Sox want to repeat. If you lost 18 times, that means you still would win 96 games – and Boston would have to close at a torrid 25-13 clip to draw even.
Except, well – you know we aren’t talking about the Yankees . . . at all, because they are in third place and barring a math-miracle they will be sitting at home this October.
The Devil Rays are in first place.
Now this really is a word problem – because first place is not something we have grown accustomed to using in conjunction with the Rays, despite the fact they have spent 61 days on top of their division this season already.
They have also eclipsed the previous franchise high of – ahem – 70, wins. Yet they are only twelfth in the league in terms of attendance, so clearly even the home crowd isn’t accustomed to what we are seeing.
How many games do the Rays need to win to clinch the division?
Well, all of them.
They can’t afford to lose any – and they especially can’t afford to lose two or three in a row. They lost three key players last week, but still won 7 of 10 on the road.
Not bad – not enough, either.
The truth is that if the Rays play 20-19 ball in the final weeks, the Red Sox would still have to play 24-14 baseball the rest of the way to catch them.
Here are some interesting tidbits on the Red Sox – their longest win streak this season is seven games, and their best record for any one month so far is 16-11.
The Rays worst month so far this season is 13-12.
How are they playing right now? Boston is 10-5 in August, but Tampa is 12-4.
The best positive going for the Rays is that Boston is seven games under .500 on the road – and they have 18 road games remaining.
The Rays have 19 road games remaining – including three in Boston, and three in New York, and the truth is that it will likely come down to how the Red Sox and Rays play each other, and how they play New York.
It is very unlikely that the Yankees can catch both the Red Sox and the Rays – meaning they are probably done. That does not mean, however, that the Yankees won’t have a say in who wins the division.
The Red Sox and the Rays have six games left against New York – all of them in September. Tampa closes out the season with four games in Detroit, while Boston hosts the Yankees for three.
The worst negative going against the Rays is that the final week of the season Boston is at home and the Rays are on the road – but the truth is, at 75-48, and five up in the loss column, the Rays are actually in control.
If they can split the six games with Boston and split the six games with New York, then they will do the unthinkable and win their division.
Take six games off the schedule and call them a wash – which is what splitting six games with Boston would do – and what you have left is a 33 game schedule with a five game advantage in the loss column.
Do the math, and the Rays could post 17-16. Boston would only have 32 games left, so the Red Sox would need to play 21-11 down the stretch against a schedule that includes the Yankees (6), Baltimore (6), and Toronto (9) – division rivals that would love nothing more than to keep Boston out of the playoffs.
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