Though headed for the rotation in the future, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is one of the few sure bets out of any bullpen in 2008.

AP

By David Sabino, SI.com

SI's resident fantasy guru, David Sabino, takes a preseason look at the fantasy prospects position-by-position and ranks the candidates in four tiers from the superstars to those who should be left at home. Today, we head to the bullpen ...

Shopping for relief pitchers is the riskiest proposition in all of fantasy baseball, if not all of fantasy sports. Anywhere from one-third to more than half of the pitchers who start the year as his team's ninth inning man will lose that role either due to injury, ineffectiveness or transaction. Today's great closer on a bad team could easily become tomorrow's setup man for a pennant contender. It's a position in which attitude, outlook and mental ability is as important as talent, which makes the closers who've proven themselves over time the most valuable. 

Due to the high rate of turnover, we're presenting these rankings differently. The closers are ranked in order of stability and ability, with their likely replacement alongside. The rest of the relief pitchers are then ranked below with much more emphasis placed on future potential than past performance, since bullpen results change dramatically depending on the roles the pitcher finds himself in.

Most Valuable: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
Most Overrated: Eric Gagne, Brewers
Most Underrated: Joe Borowski, Indians
Most likely to breakout: George Sherrill, Orioles
Most improved: Brian Wilson, Giants
Most likely to flop: Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
Comeback closer of the year: B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
Best rookie: Yasuhiko Yabuta, Royals
Best $1 Long shot: Al Reyes, Rays

Locked and Loaded

1. Jonathan Papelbon (Craig Hansen), Red Sox: The Red Sox insist he'll eventually move into the rotation, but for the time being Papelbon is the current gold standard against which other closers are judged, saving 72 of 82 chances over the past two seasons.

2. J.J. Putz (Brandon Morrow), Mariners: The imposing Putz had a second consecutive dominant year, saving 40 of 42 games with a 1.38 ERA and 82 strikeouts. With Erik Bedard on board, the M's will create even more save opportunities.

3. Trevor Hoffman (Heath Bell), Padres: His collapse in the epic play-in playoff game last season against the Rockies shouldn't be held against him. Even in his 16th season, he's as dependable in the regular season as anyone ever has been, and on a team with a low-scoring offense, excellent starting pitching and quality set-up men, Hoffman could be in for another huge saves season.

4. Francisco Rodriguez (Scot Shields), Angels: Acrimony over his contract could cause the Angels to deal Rodriguez late in the season if they somehow fall out of the pennant chase. With the big-armed Scott Shields on board, the transition wouldn't be as dramatic as most.

5. Mariano Rivera (Joba Chamberlain), Yankee: Given the makeup of the Yankees bullpen, there's no reason for Chamberlain to not be Rivera's primary setup man. Other much less attractive alternative options include the flammable LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth.

6. Joe Nathan (Juan Rincon), Twins: The model of job security and consistency, Nathan and all-time saves leader Hoffman are the only pitchers to reach 35 saves in each of the last four seasons.  

7. Billy Wagner (Duaner Sanchez), Mets: The outspoken southpaw hasn't worn out his welcome in New York like he did in Philly, and he has a chance to be a folk hero in New York in what could be a historic Mets season.

The Next Best

8. Bobby Jenks (Octavio Dotel), White Sox
9. Jose Valverde (Oscar Villarreal), Astros
10. Takashi Saito (Jonathan Broxton), Dodgers
11. Chad Cordero, (Saul Rivera), Nationals
12. Jason Isringhausen (Russ Springer), Cardinals
13. Manny Corpas (Brian Fuentes), Rockies
14. Rafael Soriano (Mike Gonzalez), Braves
15. Huston Street (Joey Devine), A's

Jenks is one of only three closers to reach 40 saves in 2006 and '07 (Hoffman and K-Rod being the others), but the arrival of Dotel puts him on a shorter leash than in the past ... The majors' saves leader with 47 in '07, Valverde will come back to the pack in Houston's home run happy ballpark ... Saito inherited the job when Gagne's arm blew out, and he's done a great job ever since, but Broxton is the most ready closer-in-waiting in all of the big leagues ... Pitching on another one-year contract, Chad Cordero will again be at the top of the shopping lists of every team looking for in-season relief help, so beware in NL-only leagues ... Beware: Isringhausen had nine fewer chances but eight fewer blown saves)in '07 than in '06. His saves total could drop significantly if the chances continue dropping and the blown saves return to normal ...

From the Risks to the Reaches

16. B.J. Ryan (Jeremy Accardo), Blue Jays 
17. Todd Jones (Fernando Rodney) Tigers
18. Francisco Cordero (Dave Weathers), Reds
19. Matt Capps (John Grabow), Pirates
20. George Sherrill (Chris Ray), Orioles
21. Eric Gagne (Derrick Turnbow), Brewers
22. Bobby Howry (Kerry Wood), Cubs
23. Brad Lidge (Tom Gordon), Phillies
24. Brandon Lyon (Tony Pena), Diamondbacks
25. Joakim Soria (Yasuhiko Yabuta), Royals
26. Joe Borowski (Rafael Betancourt), Indians
27. Brian Wilson, (Tyler Walker), Giants
28. Kevin Gregg (Matt Lindstrom) Marlins
29. Troy Percival (Al Reyes), Rays
30. C.J. Wilson (Eddie Guardado), Rangers

If you draft Ryan, be sure to grab Accardo as well since there's a very good chance that Ryan's rush back to the majors will result in some time on the sidelines, but when healthy, he's a top 5 closer ... The only knock against Todd Jones is that he's the least sexy closer in the majors, but you can't question his effectiveness with 115 saves in 132 chances over the last three seasons ... Lidge already has had spring surgery in his already repaired knee and will be replaced at the start of the year by Flash Gordon. Don't go overboard in drafting him, but if Lidge is a bargain, he's someone to take a chance on ... Francisco Cordero has lost his closer's job on his last two teams (Texas and Milwaukee). Will the third time be the charm in Cincinnati after he signed a four year, $46 million deal? ... The search is on for a stopper in Chicago with Ryan Dempster expected to take a rotation spot. Howry has a slight edge on Wood with Carlos Marmol a dark horse if Wood breaks down again ... He may or may not be effective, but it's nice to see Percival back as a closer less than a year after making a successful comeback with the Cardinals. He can only hope his comeback is as successful as Borowski's has been ... It's assumed that Everyday Eddie Guardado will take over for C.J. Wilson, but the incumbent could hold on for a while and Guardado has been very successful as a setup man for the Twins in the past.

Set Up and Middle Men Worth Considering

1. Rafael Perez, Indians
2. John Rauch, Nationals
3. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
4. Joe Beimel, Dodgers
5. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
6. Luis Vizcaino, Rockies
7. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
8. Pat Neshak, Twins
9. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
10. Santiago Casilla, A's
11. Matt Wise, Mets
12. Chad Bradford, Orioles
13. Alan Embree, A's
14. Aaron Fultz, Indians
15. LaTroy Hawkins, Yankees
16. Matt Guerrier, Twins
17. Jamie Walker, Orioles
18. Geoff Geary, Astros
19. Aaron Heilman, Mets
20. David Riske, Brewers
21. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
22. Ryan Madson, Phillies
23. Randy Flores, Cardinals
24. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
25. Eric O'Flaherty, Mariners
26. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays
27. Jimmy Gobble, Royals
28. Jesse Crain, Twins
29. Cla Meredith, Padres
30. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
31. Mike Timlin, Red Sox
32. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
33. Joel Zumaya, Tigers
34. Damaso Marte, Pirates
35. Kevin Cameron, Padres
36. Luis Ayala, Nationals
37. Will Ohman, Braves
38. Kyle Farnsworth, Yankees
39. Wil Ledezma, Padres
40. J.C. Romero, Phillies
41. Royce Ring, Braves
42. Dustin Moseley, Angels
43. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
44. Brad Hennessey, Giants
45. Rudy Seanez, Dodgers
46. Taylor Tankersley, Marlins
47. Matt Thornton, White Sox
48. Justin Speier, Angels
49. Doug Brocail, Padres
50. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
51. Mike Stanton, Reds
52. Justin Miller, Marlins
53. Ross Ohlendorf, Yankees
54. Scott Proctor, Dodgers
55. Kazuo Fukumori, Rangers
56. Reynal Pinto, Marlins
57. Edwar Ramirez, Yankees
58. Neal Cotts, Cubs
59. Jesus Colome, Nationals
60. Keith Foulke, A's

SI.com's 2008 Fantasy Preview:

• Avoiding holes key at catcher
• Power in short supply at first base
• Bargains can be found at second base
• Though top heavy, SS pool is deep
• No position is hotter than hot corner
• Options many, but pickings slim in OF