Conor

Conor Jackson won't turn 26 until Mary, but he'll likely hit more homers than his age this year.

AP

Thursday February 28

By Gary Gramling, SI.com 

Every Thursday from now until September, you can come here to find an in-depth look at fantasy baseball's sell-high and buy-low candidates. But, as anyone with a sundial can see (thanks SkyMall!), it's still February. Since most auctions and drafts haven't taken place just yet, we'll spend the next few weeks taking a closer look at the boom and bust picks at each position.

This week, we'll look at corner infielders ...

BUY LOW

Conor Jackson, 1B, Diamondbacks: Seems like that new prospect smell has worn off of Jackson. He's entering his third season. And he spent his second season sharing time with Tony Clark, who is old enough to be portrayed by Morgan Freeman should the D'Backs' 2007 season be made into a movie. Or Ben Vereen if it's an off-Broadway play. (With Elijah Wood as Eric Byrnes. This thing actually writes itself.)

But this is the first year that Jackson looks poised for a breakout that only Clearasil can stop. And a lot of it has to do with simple math. With Clark out of the picture, and assuming Arizona doesn't ink, say Jack Clark between now and Opening Day, Jackson figures to see about a 25-percent increase in playing time at least. So even if he stays at exactly last year's levels, Jackson is looking at a .284, 19-HR, 75-RBI, 70-run season.

But Jackson isn't 26 until May. And he hit .308 with 25 extra-base hits -- including 10 homers -- in just 182 at-bats after the All-Star break last season. He slugged .555 in that span. He's not a 40-home run masher, but the power is coming. A 30-HR season is within reach in ‘08.

Jackson is slipping outside the top 20 first basemen in a lot of drafts, but he's definitely better than that. He could be top 10 by midseason.

Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers: This sounds like an episode of House. Blalock was suffering from tingling and numbness in his arm last season. So doctors fixed the problem by removing a rib. Obviously.

But according to reports, so far so good. And not just because of the obvious commercial tie-ins with the McRib. Blalock was able to DH last season. And he's making throws across the diamond this spring. But there's more reason for optimism than a return to health.

Blalock's Achilles' heal has always been an inability to hit lefties. Entering last season, he had a career .221 mark against southpaws, striking out once every 4.1 at-bats. In his disappointing 2006 season, Blalock hit them at a .216 clip. Small sample size alert. Blalock only logged 47 at-bats against lefties last season, but he hit them at a .298 clip, striking out once every 5.2 at-bats.

Better yet, after Blalock returned last September, he hit .313 with five homers in just 64 at-bats. Obviously, he's one of the riskiest picks in fantasy baseball -- his success against lefties last season might have been a fluke. But like the McRib, Blalock might only come this cheap for a limited time.

SELL HIGH

Daric Barton, 1B, A's: I like Barton. I really do. Not in a weird way. I just like the fact that he hits a lot of line drives. And he's patient, but doesn't strike out much. And he's a young lefty hitter who holds his own against southpaws. And I hear he has an enchanting musk. OK, that last one is weird.

So I can understand why fantasy leaguers are ready to pounce on Barton. But in re-draft leagues, it's a mistake. He's a 22-year-old who hasn't shown more than gap power, even in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. And now he'll play half his games in pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum. There's 30-homer potential, but it's unlikely to show up for another season or so.

And Barton isn't exactly joining a high-powered offense. He'll likely bat second this season, limiting his RBI opportunities. Barton will hit for average and get on base, but he'll likely be counting on the ghost of Eric Chavez and Mitchell Report star Jack Cust to drive him in.

Even if he plays up to his future All-Star status, it's tough to see Barton producing well enough to be a top 20 first baseman.

Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox: Remember "productive outs"? It was the in thing to do a couple years back when the Florida Marlins were winning titles behind Juan Pierre & Company. It's a fad that has gone the way of the pet rock, Ska music, and Matthew McConaughey films (well, hopefully on that last one).

Except PO's, not Sabermetrics, are still the "in" thing for Ozzie Guillen. And that's bad news for Fields. Guillen will probably go out of his mind with new OF Nick Swisher's patient approach at the plate. But Swisher is a proven producer who came to Chicago for a heavy price.

Fields, on the other hand, is relatively unproven, and strikes out even more often than Swisher does. And despite legitimate 30-home run power, Fields isn't going to make many productive outs striking out more than once every three at-bats (as he did last season).

Unless Kenny Williams swings another deal, Swisher and Jermaine Dye are guaranteed spots in the outfield. Jim Thome isn't going anywhere at DH. Hack-at-everything 3B Joe Crede is back after missing almost all of last season. That leaves Fields to battle with Jerry Owens for that last outfield spot. Owens is a Guillen favorite. And it's obvious why: with his free-swinging approach and speed, Owens must remind Guillen of Pierre.

Even if Fields does beat out Owens this spring, he's never going to hit for average striking out so often. And he's going to hit in the bottom half of the order, limiting chances for RBIs and runs. Plenty of owners consider Fields a top 15 third baseman because of his 23 homers in two-thirds of a season. But you shouldn't consider him as anything more than a late-round flier.