Johan Santana is likely to find the offenses to his liking in the National League this season.

AP

By David Sabino, SI.com

By the nature of the fantasy beast it is, pitching is the hardest to predict. So many factors affect the effectiveness of a starting pitcher that luck and the ability to stay on top of trends throughout the season are as important as a good draft.

Just take a look at this season's crop of available fantasy hurlers. The first thing you notice is how many brand name arms are in various states of recovery from serious injury issues, many of which torpedoed lots of fantasy seasons last season. You've got Cy Young Award winners (Randy Johnson, Bartolo Colon), up and coming stars (Francisco Liriano, Adam Loewen) and the always injured (Mike Hampton, Mark Prior). Given the questionable status of these hurlers, we decided to remove them from the general rankings and put them into a section of their own, which can yield incredible rewards for you should you choose wisely.

As for the rest, it's a good year to load up on Tigers, Mets, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, but you should tread lightly if you decide to go beyond Roy Oswalt in Houston, Rich Harden and Joe Blanton in Oakland or are willing to take a chance on any of the Twins.

• Most Valuable: Johan Santana, Mets; Josh Beckett, Red Sox
• Most Overrated: Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers; Barry Zito, Giants
• Most Underrated: Aaron Harang, Reds; Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
• Most likely to breakout: Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays; Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
• Most improved: Felix Hernandez, Mariners;  Tim Lincecum, Giants
• Most likely to flop: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks; Jose Contreras, White Sox
• Comeback starters of the year: Randy Wolf, Padres; Rich Harden, A's
• Best rookies: Clay Buchholz, Red Sox; Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
• Best $1 Long shots:  Aaron Laffey, Indians; Paul Maholm, Pirates

Locked at the Top

1. Johan Santana, Mets: Like many pitchers who switch from the AL to the NL, the majors' best pitcher will likely be even better in 2008 than he was in '07. No longer having to face lineups stacked from one to nine, Santana could put up historic numbers for a team in dire need of a strong bounce back after last season's late collapse.

2. Jake Peavy, Padres: The NL's pitching triple crown winner was a single win away from leading the major leagues in ERA (2.54), strikeouts (240) and wins (19, one behind Beckett and tied with John Lackey and Fausto Carmona).

3. Josh Beckett, Red Sox: The majors' top winner over the last three seasons, Beckett and Santana are the only pitchers to win at least 15 games in each of those years. A scary thought: He's still 27 years old until the middle of May; Beckett is just now entering his prime.

4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks: Over the last three years Webb has been one of the most dependable pitchers in baseball, averaging seven innings per start and winning 48 percent of the time he takes to the hill. Despite his reputation as a sinkerballer, he ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts since '05 after tallying a career-high 194 Ks last season.

5. Justin Verlander, Tigers: In two full seasons, Verlander is 35-15 with 307 strikeouts and has a no-hitter to his credit. With the firepower the Tigers added in the offseason, it may be possible for Verlander to exceed the major league best 7.32 runs average run support he enjoyed last year.

6. Erik Bedard, Mariners: Courtesy of a trade just before Spring training the highly sought after southpaw is now in the Pacific Northwest, perhaps the perfect place for his immense talents. How special a pitcher is he?  On a team that finished the season 24 games below .500, Bedard's record was eight games over .500. That automatically makes Seattle a pennant contender.

7. Chris Young, Padres: The ex-Princeton cager was second in the NL to his teammate, Peavy, in allowing only 10.25 base runners per nine innings. He has yet to have a big winning season, but it's coming.

8. Cole Hamels, Phillies: In a season during which he missed nearly a month with an elbow strain, the unquestioned ace of the NL East champion staff became the first Phillies southpaw since Steve Carlton in 1983 to win 15 games with an ERA under 3.50.

9. Roy Oswalt, Astros: Few players have been more dependable for their fantasy owners than Oswalt, who reached the 14-win plateau for the seventh time in seven seasons. With a beefed up offense and Jose Valverde behind him, don't look for Oswalt's value to take a dive any time soon. 

10. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks: Quick: Who had the most quality starts in the AL last season? Give yourself a prize if you answered Haren, who tied Peavy for best in the big leagues while setting career bests in wins, ERA and strikeouts.

11. C.C. Sabathia, Indians: Coming off of the finest of his seven seasons with the Tribe, Sabathia is pitching for a new contract and could blow up even more than he did last year when he led Cleveland to the ALCS after winning 19 games.

12. John Smoltz, Braves: Smoltz proclaimed Tim Hudson the ace of the staff, and he'll have a lot of friendly competition from newly acquired longtime teammate Tom Glavine, but Smoltz remains the Braves hurler most likely to come through for you.

13. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays:  The AL's active leader in career winning percentage (.669) made at least 30 starts for the second straight season , winning 16 each time. But last year also saw him produce a full-season worst 3.71 ERA while failing to reach 150 strikeouts for the fourth straight year.

14. Brad Penny, Dodgers:    The Cy Young Award frontrunner at the All Star break (10-1, 2.39) came back to Earth in the second half (6-3, 3.84) but with back-to-back solid seasons he's still worthy of being one of your team's top two starters.

15. Tim Hudson, Braves: We're not sure who was wearing Hudson's jersey on the mound for the Braves in '06, but it couldn't have been the man who sports a career 3.51 ERA, mostly in the AL, could it? Whoever it was, the real Tim Hudson showed up last year in what was his best Atlanta season by far.

16. Chien Ming Wang, Yankees: Postseason collapse aside, Wang is a steady presence at the top of the rotation on one of baseball's best teams, and you'd be crazy to not want someone who has gone 38-13 in two seasons on your squad. 

17. John Lackey, Angels: This is Lackey's first foray into the top 20 after an incredible '07, but be a little wary as the groundball pitcher could be adversely affected by the instability at shortstop created by the departure of Gold Glover Orlando Cabrera.

18. Pedro Martinez, Mets: It's been quite a while since Martinez wasn't considered one of the five best pitchers in baseball, let alone not even the best on his own team. He looked strong in his late '07 return from shoulder surgery and has been healthy and happy thus far in the spring. He should be in for a very successful season.

19. Felix Hernandez, Mariners: When he first broke into the majors as a 19-year old, King Felix was supposed to be great. So far, he's been good, even quite good, but we'll stop short at calling a pitcher with a 30-25 record and 3.94 ERA great. However some pressure will be lifted from his powerful right shoulder with the addition of Bedard at the top of the M's rotation, a move that should translate into even further progress for the soon-to-be 22-year old. Target him especially in keeper leagues.

20. Fausto Carmona, Indians: What a difference a year makes. In '06 Carmona was 1-10 with a putrid 5.42 ERA mainly as a reliever and went more than a full calendar year between wins. After breaking the schneid in '07, Carmona became Cleveland's second ace, with 19 wins and stabilizing a rotation that for years had been the team's downfall.

The Next Best

21. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
22. Jeff Francis, Rockies
23. Ben Sheets, Brewers
24. Scott Kazmir, Rays
25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
26. Brett Myers, Phillies
27. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
28. Aaron Harang, Reds
29. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
30. Rich Harden, A's
31. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
32. Jon Garland, Angels
33. Rich Hill, Cubs
34. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
35. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
36. Jared Weaver, Angels
37. Barry Zito, Giants
38. Ted Lilly, Cubs
39. Aaron Cook, Rockies
40. John Maine, Mets
41. Greg Maddux, Padres
42. Tom Glavine, Braves
43. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
44. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
45. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
46. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
47. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
48. Joe Blanton, A's
49. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
50. Jeff Suppan, Brewers

A fifth straight 200-inning year is part of the reason for Zambrano's rise in ERA and losses ... Francis, Morales, Cook and Jimenez, have blown up the notion of  avoiding Colorado pitching. In fact, Francis has put together the best two seasons ever for a Rockies pitcher, first in '06 then again last year ... Always a risk for injury, Sheets is the go-to guy on one of the NL's best teams. Even with lost time and the possibility his once impeccable control has given way to some wildness, he'll win enough to be considered one of the better NL-only starters ... One could only imagine how big a star Kazmir would be today if he pitched as well over the last two years with the Mets, in the nation's largest market, as he has in Tampa Bay with minimal coverage. In the second half last year he led the majors in strikeouts while finishing second among all starters in ERA ... If the Jays keep McGowan in his normal turn he'll be great. Last year in 15 starts following regular rest his ERA was 3.06. In 12 starts with five or more days rest between, it ballooned to 6.49 ... Adding Brad Lidge (injured again) to the bullpen benefits the Phillies rotation as Myers is allowed to return to the rotation as the team's second-best starter. With the talent on his team, he'll shatter his career high of 14 wins ... Matsuzaka's 15-12 record and 4.40 ERA was a disappointment to most of his first-time owners, but don't be discouraged. He'll experience a sophomore surge ... Harang's '07 was eerily similar to his '06, which certainly was cause to celebrate for those who had more faith in him than distrust of a Reds pitcher ... Buchholz was untouchable in the offseason after throwing a September no-hitter. With Schilling expected to be out for a sizeable portion of the year, Buchholz will get a regular turn in Terry Francona's rotation ... After coming clean about his HGH use, you can book Pettitte for another 15 to 20 wins ... Jon Garland is headed for a contract year, with a new team that hits and catches the ball better than his old one. Another 18-win season isn't out of the question ... The Giants have virtually no offensive firepower which will make Zito very fortunate to reach the career-low 11 wins he achieved in his season on the other side of the Bay ... In the cases of Maddux and Glavine, age is merely a number. The old guys still have a lot left ... For a player like Dontrelle Willis, going from the moribund Marlins to the confident Tigers means much more than the difficult switch from the NL to the AL ...

From the Risks to the Reaches

51. Matt Cain, Giants
52. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
53. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
54. Phil Hughes, Yankees
55. Franklin Morales, Rockies
56. Oliver Perez, Mets
57. Tim Lincecum, Giants
58. Homer Bailey, Reds
59. Randy Wolf, Padres
60. Nate Robertson, Tigers
61. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
62. James Shields, Rays
63. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
64. Paul Byrd, Indians
65. Boof Bonser, Twins
66. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
67. Jose Contreras, White Sox
68. Matt Garza, Rays
69. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
70. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
71. Gil Meche, Royals
72. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
73. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
74. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
75. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
76. Ian Snell, Pirates
77. Brian Bannister, Royals
78. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
79.Yovanni Gallardo, Brewers
80. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
81. Jon Lester, Red Sox
82. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
83. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
84. Noah Lowry, Giants
85. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
86. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
87. Scott Olsen, Marlins
88. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
89. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
90. Carlos Silva, Mariners
91. Zach Greinke, Royals
92. Mike Mussina, Yankees
93. Aaron Laffey, Indians
94. Chris Capuano, Brewers
95. Matt Belisle, Reds
96. Joel Piniero, Cardinals
97. Joe Saunders, Angel
98. Jake Westbrook, Indians
99. Miguel Batista, Mariners
100. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
101. Jason Jennings, Rangers
102. Kevin Slowey, Twins
103. Shawn Hill, Nationals
104. Braden Looper, Cardinals
105. Kyle Lohse, Free Agent
106. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
107. Andy Sonnastine, Rays
108. John Patterson, Nationals
109. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
110. Esteban Loaiza, Dodgers
111. Sergio Mitre, Marlins
112. Paul Maholm, Pirates
113. Adam Eaton, Phillies
114. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
115. Horacio Ramirez, Mariners
116. John Danks, White Sox
117. Chris Volstad, Marlins
118. Josh Towers, Rockies
119. Jon Lieber, Cubs
120. Phillip Humber, Twins

Lincecum came up with the Yankees, who will be relying heavily on the tandem of Kennedy and Hughes but neither will be a workhorse, so don't expect more than 12-14 wins each ... Wolf is with his third team in three years, but few places are better to pitch than Petco ... Guthrie was one of the Orioles' few bright spots after being picked up from the Indians but could take a major step back by being put at the front of the rotation ... Perez had his second double-digit year in wins but also his fourth in losses. He is pitching for a contract and could return to the 200-strikeout level ... Moyer is about 100 years old but remains effective for wins, however his ERA (5.01) is discouraging ... Shying away from El Duque is a mistake. He's effective nearly every time he takes the hill and while it's a certainty that he'll get hurt, most leagues have DLs ... Kershaw could earn a spot in the Dodgers rotation, if not out of spring training, at least sometime during the summer ... Sleeper alert: Laffey has a history of big wins and small WHIPs in his minor league career and he's got a very good chance of being in the Indians rotation from Day 1 ... There's no good reason to draft any starters from the Rangers, Marlins or Nationals but former fantasy wasteland Kansas City has three quality candidates in Meche, Bannister and the rookie Hochevar. ... You can do a lot worse than a rock bottom budget rotation comprised of Owings, Snell, Saunders, Kuroda and Wainwright.

Huge Risk, Big Reward (all coming off injury and therefore not ranked)

Francisco Liriano, Twins: His see-saw career continues after an amazing rookie season in '06, sitting out all of '07 following Tommy John surgery and now returning to the Twins as Santana's replacement at the front of the rotation.

Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks: Will probably retire at the first sign of another major injury.

Jason Schmidt, Dodgers: Early reports have been encouraging for a strong return to form for the pitcher who has yet to lose 10 games in a season in the '00s. As is, he still has only one win to show for the three-year, $47 million contract he signed before last season with the Dodgers because of a bad shoulder.

Kelvim Escobar, Angels: Will miss the first few weeks of the season and could be gone for much longer.

Mike Hampton, Braves: Two and a half years since his last big league pitch, Hampton is having some spring success and is a favorite to reclaim a rotation spot.

Mark Mulder, Cardinals: The former ace is taking it slowly and could be sidelined at least through April.

Bartolo Colon, Red Sox: The '05 Cy Young Award winner signed a minor league deal as Curt Schilling insurance for Boston.

Matt Clement, Cardinals: Reports of him being ready after shoulder surgery in September were obviously exaggerated as he's not going to be ready to start the year for his new team.

Mark Prior, Padres: He's the ultimate heart-breaking, injury-prone fantasy pitcher, so spend no more than $2 for his services in auction leagues and cross your fingers.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: It'll be August at the earliest until he finds himself toeing the rubber in Busch Stadium again.

Adam Loewen, Orioles: He's coming back from a fractured elbow to a team markedly worse than the one he left in May.

Curt Schilling, Red Sox: Depending on who you believe, Schilling could be out for half the year, for the whole year, or his career could be over.

Don't Even Think About

121. Brandon Backe, Astros
122. Garrett Olsen, Orioles
123. Chuck James, Braves
124. Lenny DiNardo, A's
125. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
126. Felipe Paulino, Astros
127. JoJo Reyes, Braves
128. Livan Hernandez, Twins
129. Ervin Santana, Angels
130. Zach Duke, Pirates
131. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
132. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
133. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
134. Josh Fogg, Reds
135. Sean Marshall, Cubs
136. Matt Morris, Pirates
137. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
138. Duchscherer, A's
139. Jeremy Sowers, Indians
140. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
141. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
142. Andrew Miller, Marlins
143. Dave Bush, Brewers
144. J.D. Durbin, Phillies
145. Jason Marquis, Cubs
146. Shawn Chacon, Astros
147. Clay Hensley, Padres
148. Kyle Davies, Royals
149. Matt Albers, Orioles}
150. Kevin Correia, Giants
151. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
152. Virgil Vazquez, Tigers
153. Brian Burress, Orioles
154. Brandon McCarthy, Rangers
155. Jason Hirsch, Rockies
156. Billy Buckner, Diamondbacks}
157.Chad Gaudin, A's
158. Jason Bergmann, Nationals
159. Mark Hendrickson, Marlins
160 .Luke Hochevar, Royals
161. Yusmeiro Petit, Diamondbacks
162. Kip Wells, Rockies
163. Jeremy Affeldt, Reds
164. Steve Trachsel, Orioles
165. Woody Williams, Astros
166. Kris Benson, Phillies
167. Scott Baker, Twins
168. Shawn Estes, Padres
169. John Lannan, Nationals
170. Dana Eveland, A's
171. Brett Tomko, Royals
172. Edwin Jackson, Rays
173. Chris Sampson, Astros
174. Edinson Volquez, Reds
175. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins
176. Jason Hammel, Rays
177. Gustavo Chacin, Blue Jays
178. J.P. Howell, Rays
179. Matt Chico, Nationals
180. Mark Redman, Rockies
181. Scott Atchison, Giants
182. Tim Redding, Nationals
183. Jamey Wright, Rangers
184. Cha Baek, Mariners
185. Carl Pavano, Yankees

SI.com's 2008 Fantasy Preview:

• Avoiding holes key at catcher
• Power in short supply at first base
• Bargains can be found at second base
• Though top heavy, SS pool is deep
• No position is hotter than hot corner
• Options many, but pickings slim in OF 
• Uncertainty only sure thing about relievers