P1-pujols

Concerns over his elbow notwithstanding, Albert Pujols is too good a player to pass up in any auction.

AP

By Greg Ambrosius, National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Special to SI.com

Draft day 2008 will be here before you know it, so there's no time like the present to get your cheat sheets set and ready for the big day. I'm here to help you along by getting the top 20 players at each position ranked and rated, along with my projections for each player.

As expected, first base is loaded with fantasy sluggers. It contains two of the last three NL Most Valuable Players -- Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard -- and the 2006 MVP in Justin Morneau. They led a group of first basemen -- 11 in all -- who hit 25 or more homers last year, with 10 of them also driving in 100 runs. The veterans lead this position, but don't overlook rookies such as Cincinnati's Joey Votto and Oakland's Daric Barton because they will have big impacts this year as well.

Here now are my top 20 first basemen to get on draft day, along with their AL-only or NL-only rotisserie dollar values and their 2008 projections:

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis, $38:

Pujols became the first player in MLB history with 100 or more RBIs in each of his first seven seasons as he drove in 103 runs last year while hitting .327 with 32 HRs. Pujols was a consensus No. 1 pick last year in fantasy drafts and his final numbers were actually a disappointment. After hitting .310-16-52 in the first half, he boosted his average down the stretch by hitting .349-16-51 despite being bothered by an elbow injury. He decided against having offseason elbow surgery and has admitted that he will opt for surgery rather than play through the pain if it persists in 2008. The ongoing injuries are a concern and he's riskier than in years past, but he's too good to ignore among the top 10 picks on draft day.

Projection: He will go in the top seven picks and will hit .329-35-112-4 in '08.

2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia, $36

Howard's batting average suffered a major decline (.313 to .268) last year as did his on-base percentage (dropping 32 points to .392), but he remained a terrific source for power (47 HRs/136 RBIs). He got off to a slow start and landed on the DL on May 9 with a quad injury, hitting just .204-6-23 at the time. But from May 25 on, he hit .282-41-113 to lead the Phillies to the playoffs. He still struggles against LHPs (.225-16-46 compared to .297-31-90 vs. RHPs), but Howard is an elite power threat who should be a first round pick.
Projection:
He's been going in the top 15 picks overall in off-season drafts and will deliver a .286-48-137-1 season.

3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee, $36

Fielder elevated his production to an MVP-caliber level last year. His average (.288), OBP (.395), HRs (50) and RBIs (119) were all career bests as he kept the Brewers in the playoff hunt all year. Unlike his father, he's not an all-or-nothing swinger at the plate, showing good patience (90 walks). A better hitter at home (.301-27-71) than on the road (.276-23-48), Fielder did fade a bit in the second half (.293-21-49 compared to .284-29-70 before the break), but at the age of 23 his upside is so good that he's fast becoming a top 15 overall pick.

Projection: He'll hit third in the lineup ahead of Ryan Braun in '07 and will finish with a .289-44-116-2 season in '08.

4. Mark Teixeira, Atlanta, $33

Traded to the Braves at the July 31 deadline, Teixeira had no problems adjusting to National League pitching as he hit .317-17-56 with a .404 OBP in 54 games with Atlanta. For the season, the switch-hitter batted .351-6-36 vs. LHPs and .276-24-69 vs. RHPs. The only negative was 30 games missed due to a quad injury, which was a surprise given how he hadn't missed a game the previous two seasons. His strong second half performance (.309-18-64) proves that when healthy he's still among the best at this position and he's going in the top 25 in most off-season fantasy drafts. Projection: He's headed toward a .304-39-127-1 season.   

5. Lance Berkman, Houston, $29

Berkman has dual eligibility for fantasy owners as he qualifies at first base and in the outfield, but will play mostly at first base this year. Berkman frustrated his fantasy owners at the start of last season, hitting just .244-6-28 through the first two months of the season, but he bounced back to hit .294-28-74 from June 1 on. A much better hitter against RHPs (.282-29-78) than LHPs (.265-5-24), the switch-hitter still topped 30 HRs and 100 RBIs for the second consecutive season. Surprisingly, he struggled at home (.256-13-47) while flourishing on the road (.299-21-55). He'll be more consistent and will be a top 30 pick on draft day.

Projection: Look for .294-36-111-5 from Berkman in 2008.

6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota, $28

Morneau got off to a strong start last season, hitting .295-24-74 before the All-Star break, but his production tailed off considerably in the second half (.243-7-37). He said that participating in the Home Run Derby affected his swing in the second half, but a bad back didn't help, either. Morneau struggled at home (.252-15-52 compared to .288-16-59 on the road) and saw his OBP dip from .375 to .343. That didn't stop the Twins from signing him to a six-year, $80-million extension in January.

Projection: He's still going in the Top 30 overall and will bounce back to hit .302-32-114-2.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs, $28

Lee stayed healthy last season to play in 150 games, but his power numbers were a major disappointment. His 22 HRs and 82 RBIs were his fewest in a full season since '01. His OBP (.400) remained strong and he hit for a good average overall (.317) and in the first half (.330-6-42) and after the break (.302-16-40). The HR increase down the stretch is a good sign as it's obvious the broken wrist from '06 still bothered him early on. A much better hitter at Wrigley (.371-16-49) than on the road (.265-6-33), Lee is going in the top 40 overall in most offseason drafts.

Projection: He'll recapture his power and hit .309-28-101-9.

8. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay, $24

A journeyman heading into '07, Pena set career highs across the board last season. He finished second in the AL in home runs (46) and slugging (.627), and fourth in RBIs (121), while hitting .282 with 99 runs. His .411 OBP was a career high, and he proved to be consistent -- hitting .287-20-52 in the first half and .277-26-69 after the break. A better hitter against RHPs (.286-35-82) than LHPs (.271-11-39), Pena was the best fantasy free agent pickup of '07. The Rays rewarded him with a three-year contract worth $24.25 million in January, and fantasy owners are making him a top 60 overall pick.
Projection: Don't chase last year's production, but expect a worthy season of .273-30-101-1.

9. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego, $24

Gonzalez built off the success of his first full season as a starter by increasing his HRs (30), RBIs (100) and runs scored (101). His OBP dipped a bit to .347, but he flashed better numbers down the stretch (.302-16-48 after a .264-14-52 first half). A better hitter against RHPs (.290-21-68) than LHPs (.263-9-32), he fared much better on the road (.295-20-64) than at home (.266-10-36). He needs to improve his discipline at the plate (140 strikeouts), but despite that flaw his power and average numbers make him a strong fantasy option. And at the age of 25, the best is yet to come.

Projection: A season of .288-31-104 can be expected.  

10. Carlos Guillen, Detroit, $24

Guillen will move to first base permanently for the Tigers this season, but will still qualify at SS and 1B for all of this season. The reason for the move is to keep Guillen fresh and avoid the type of second-half fade that plagued him last year (.267-7-35 after a .325-14-67 first half). He will be used in most fantasy leagues at shortstop, but is still a top 10 pickup at first base. He had a .357 OBP, but saw his stolen base output dip (13) after reaching 20 in '06.

Projection: If the move to 1B keeps him healthy, he'll hit .302-18-93-12 for the Tigers this season.

11. Victor Martinez, Indians, $22

Martinez is one of the game's premier catchers, but his 1B eligibility gives him added value on draft day. He was a monster in the first half last season, hitting .324-16-68, but numerous injuries led to a decline in production after the break (.273-9-46). A good hitter both at home (.288-12-51) and on the road (.312-13-63), the switch-hitter batted .307-18-80 vs. RHPs and .289-7-34 vs. LHPs. He's tough, has good power, has a good eye at the plate (.374 OBP) and he's still just 29.

Projection: He'll be one of the first two catchers drafted and will hit .307-24-105 for the Indians this season.

12. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, $22

Konerko's numbers took a big hit last season as he hit just .259-31-90. He failed to reach the 100-RBI level for the first time since '03, his OBP dropped from .381 to .351 and his batting average dropped 64 points, from .313 to .259, his lowest since '03. His best production came before the break (.262-18-48 compared to .254-13-42 in the second half), and he struggled both at home (.258-17-43) and on the road (.260-14-47). He remained healthy all year, so blame the decrease on a dropoff in skills.

Projection: Draft accordingly and expect a .275-33-95 season from Konerko in '08.

13. Nick Swisher, Chicago White Sox, $18

Swisher moves from Oakland to Chicago after an offseason trade, a move that could be good for his offensive numbers. Last year, he hit only .252-8-26 at home, compared to .270-14-52 on the road, so the move to U.S. Cellular Field can't hurt. He also had a second half fade last year as he hit .263-11-46 before the break, but only .260-11-32 down the stretch. He had a .381 OBP as he walked 100 times, but he has an all-or-nothing approach at the plate, evident in his 393 whiffs the last three years. The White Sox hope he can bring some pop to the lineup, and at the age of 27 there is time to bust out.

Projection: The trade will be good for Swisher as he will hit .268-26-82-4 in 2008.

14. Alex Gordon, Kansas City, $18

Gordon began the season as a near-consensus pick for the American League Rookie of the Year, but he failed to live up to those expectations, hitting just .247-15-60 and striking out 137 times while finishing with a meager .314 OBP. But he did flash enough talent, specifically with his 15 HRs and 14 SBs, to have fantasy owners excited about his potential. After hitting just .232-6-28 in the first half, he rebounded after the break, hitting .264-9-32. He struggled badly against LHPs (.217-5-21 compared to .258-10-39 vs. RHPs) and fared much better hitting at home (.265-8-38) than on the road (.231-7-32). With a full season under his belt, look for Gordon to improve in '08.

Projection: He'll step up and hit .269-19-77-19.

15. Todd Helton, Colorado, $18

Helton achieved his lifelong dream of playing in the World Series last season, but his power continued to dip in his 11th big league season. He had fewer than 20 HRs for the second straight season and less than 100 RBIs for the third straight year. His OBP remained strong (.434), and he thrived at Coors Field (.333-9-41, compared to .308-8-50 on the road), but his best days are clearly in the past.

Projection: Take the average, bid accordingly and expect a season of .311-16-84-1.

16. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets, $18

Delgado was a major disappointment last year, hitting a career-worst .258 and belting only 24 homers. His 87 RBIs were his fewest since 1995 and his OBP dropped from .361 to .333. He started slowly (.242-14-49 in the first half) and finished only slightly better in the second half (.285-10-38) as he battled hip and wrist injuries. He's healthy for the start of spring training, but his days as an elite slugger are in the past.

Projection: Hope for improvement to the tune of .264-27-94-3 this season from this 15-year vet, but keep the bidding under $20.

17. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers, $17

Loney started the '07 season at Triple-A, hitting just one HR in 233 ABs, but when Nomar Garciaparra got hurt in early June, Loney stepped into the starting lineup and never left. He hit .331 with 15 HRs in 344 ABs and finished with a .381 OBP. A good hitter against both RHPs (.336-13-54) and LHPs (.319-2-13), Loney hit well at home (.296-5-33) but was a terror on the road (.370-10-34). He'll open the season as the starting first baseman for the first time in his career, and although he lacks standout power potential, his eye at the plate will reward the owners who draft him.

Projection: Consider him a rising young talent who will hit .303-21-83-2 this season.

18. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh, $17

After a breakout season in '06, LaRoche struggled in his first year with the Pirates, hitting just .272-21-88. His average was weak in the first half (.239-13-51) and then his power faded down the stretch (.312-8-37) as he battled a knee injury. He had a .345 OBP, but struggled badly on the road (.237-11-39 compared to .304-10-49 at home). Prone to strikeouts (131), LaRoche brings no SB potential, so he needs to rebound in the power categories to become a worthy fantasy option.

Projection: He did hit .322 from Aug. 1 on, and if he's completely healthy he will bounce back and hit .278-26-93 in '08.     

19. Joey Votto, Cincinnati, $16

Votto saw his first action with the big-league club last season, and flashed the offensive skills that have the Reds enamored with his potential. He hit .321, drove in 17 runs in 24 games and posted a .360 OBP. That came on the heels of a standout season at Triple-A Louisville, where he hit .294-22-92 with 17 SBs and a .381 OBP in 133 games. A standout hitter against RHPs (.345-4-16 compared to .269-0-1 vs. LHPs), Votto is expected to open this season as the starting first baseman for the Reds. Although he needs to improve his plate discipline (15 strikeouts in 84 ABs), his power, speed and average potential make him a standout rookie to chase on draft day.

Projection: As the starter, he'll hit .295-20-76-9 in '08.    

20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston, $16

Youkilis built upon the success he enjoyed in '06, playing a key role in Boston's run to the World Series championship. He got off to a strong start (.328-9-44 before the break), but a wrist injury hampered him in the second half (.238-7-39). Despite that, he finished with a .390 OBP with 77 walks and hit well against both LHPs (.290-2-13) and RHPs (.287-14-70). He didn't enjoy hitting at Fenway Park very much, however, batting only .268-8-40 compared to .311-8-43 on the road.

Projection: He's coming into his own and will deliver a season of .286-17-88-5 if he can stay healthy.

Greg Ambrosius is the director of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship -- the industry's only multi-city high-stakes fantasy baseball event. Send questions to Greg at greg.ambrosius@fwpubs.com.