Considered in many quarters one of the top players in any draft, Florida's Hanley Ramirez may get off to a slow start due to offseason shoulder surgery.
Robert Beck/SI
By Greg Ambrosius, National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Special to SI.com
Once a position of weakness in fantasy baseball, the shortstop position has quickly evolved into one of the most desired spots in the game. Even with Alex Rodriguez now entrenched at third base, the shortstop position has been replenished by young superstars who are dominating the early portion of fantasy drafts. Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are all going in the top 10 in 2008 and in some cases all three go in the top 5.
Rollins is the reigning National League MVP as he led all shortstops last year with 30 homers. In all, eight different shortstops hit 20 or more homers last year and 16 different shortstops stole 10 or more bases. Veterans such as Derek Jeter, Carlos Guillen, Michael Young, Rafael Furcal and Edgar Renteria add value to this position, while youngsters such as Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki and Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta add great depth to the position.
Here now are my top 20 shortstops to get on draft day, along with their AL-only or NL-only rotisserie dollar values and their '08 projections:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida, $39
Ramirez has quickly become the top fantasy shortstop in the game. He exploded onto the scene in '06 and was even better in '07, showing significant improvements in average, power and on-base percentage (.386). However, he had shoulder surgery on Oct. 3 and may be slowed to start spring training, which is a concern. But despite playing hurt last year (his left shoulder popped out), he still tore up left-handed pitchers (.381-8-27) and right-handed pitchers equally (.309-21-54). The shoulder is a concern, so watch his progress this spring, but in offseason drafts he's going in the top 5 and most likely second or third overall.
Projection: Just 24, the best is yet to come, so look for him to deliver a .311-26-89-48 season.
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets, $39
One of the most dynamic players in the game, Reyes saw his average and power drop last season, but he more than compensated by setting a career-high in stolen bases with 78 (in 99 attempts), scoring 119 runs and matching his '06 OBP at .354 with 77 walks. He was a fantasy MVP candidate in the first half when he hit .307-4-35, but his performance then dipped down the stretch (.251-8-22). The second-half fade is a bit of a concern, but in this powerful lineup Reyes should bounce back and again be a fantasy MVP candidate.
Projection: Reyes is a unanimous Top 5 pick who is so talented that a rebound of .285-16-70-69 can be expected.
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia, $37
Another five-category stud at this position, Rollins had a career year in 2007 and won the National League's MVP Award. Rollins became the first player in league history to have at least 200 hits, 25 homers, 15 triples and 25 steals in a season. Overall, he hit .296, had a .344 OBP with 38 doubles, 30 homers, 94 RBIs, 41 stolen bases, 212 hits and an NL-best 20 triples and 139 runs. A good hitter against both left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers, Rollins is still just 29 and getting better with age.
Projection: He's going in the top 6 overall picks on draft day, so look for him to reward his owners with a .294-28-92-39 season.
4. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, $27
Jeter was bothered by a knee injury for much of last season and that resulted in a drop-off in terms of power (12 HRs) and speed (15 stolen bases). He still put up a quality season, hitting over .300 for the third straight season and finishing with a .388 OBP, but 19 fewer stolen bases was disappointing. Jeter continues to be one of the most consistent hitters in the game and he's a gamer who plays through injuries. Over the last three years, he's hit .325 while competing in an average of 156 games per year. With better health, his power should return this season, although at age 33, it's unlikely he'll top 30 stolen bases again.
Projection: The dropoff from the top three shortstops is noticeable, but Jeter is a worthy top 50 pickup who will hit .314-14-82-20 in '08.
5. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado, $26
Tulowitzki had a banner rookie season ion '07 for the Rockies, setting a league record for most home runs by a rookie shortstop (24) and finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. The Rockies rewarded him with a six-year deal worth $31 million in January. He provided power, a good average, and even though he struck out 130 times, he still had a solid OBP (.359). He took full advantage of playing his home games at Coors Field, where he hit .326-15-60 compared to .256-9-39 on the road. He doesn't offer much help in terms of stolen bases (7 last year), but playing 81 games at Coors Field will keep his numbers high.
Projection: Just 23, he will hit .292-26-104-9 this season.
6. Carlos Guillen, Detroit, $24
Guillen will move to first base permanently for the Tigers this season, but will still qualify at shortstop and first base throughout '08. The reason for the move is to keep Guillen fresh and avoid the type of second-half fade which plagued him last year when he hit just .267-7-35 after a .325-14-67 first half. He had a .357 OBP, but saw his stolen-base output dip (13) after reaching 20 in '06. He's going in the top 60 overall thanks to the dual eligibility.
Projection: If the move to first base keeps him healthy, he'll hit .302-18-93-12 for the Tigers this season.
7. Michael Young, Texas, $24
Young's home runs declined for the second straight season, but he compensated with another .300-plus season, driving in at least 90 runs for the third consecutive year and reaching double-digit stolen bases for the first time since '04 (13-of-16 stolen base attempts). He finished with a .366 OBP and delivered quality production both at home (.317-8-57) and on the road (.313-1-37). He remains one of the top fantasy shortstops in the game whose home runs will return.
Projection: Look forward to a .312-13-97-11 season from Young in '08.
8. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers, $24
Plagued by back and ankle injuries, Furcal missed 24 games last season and saw his production decline across the board in his second campaign with the Dodgers. His OBP dipped to .333 and his average dropped 30 points from the prior season (from .300 to .270) as he struggled badly against RHPs (.247-6-31 compared to .306-0-16 vs. LHPs). A much better hitter at home (.298-4-25) than on the road (.241-2-22), Furcal is expected to be at full strength this spring as offseason surgery wasn't needed for his ankle.
Projection: A bounce-back season of .288-13-59-36 is in store for Furcal.
9. Miguel Tejada, Houston, $23
Tejada had his worst season since 1999 as he missed 29 games with a fractured wrist after playing in 1,152 straight games. His still hit .296 with a .357 OBP and he hit well at home (.321-12-53 compared to .268-6-28 on the road). The Orioles dealt him to Houston in December and he faces a potential investigation from the Department of Justice based on inconsistencies between the Mitchell Report and statements he made in an interview back in '05. Tejada's fantasy value is sinking fast because of the potential legal problems, but if he can clear those he could be a surprise value pick.
Projection: Moving to a hitter's park will help, but the investigation is a concern so .298-24-92-4 is likely his ceiling.
10. Edgar Renteria, Detroit, $20
The emergence of Yunel Escobar made Renteria expendable in Atlanta, so the Braves dealt him to Detroit in November for a pair of minor leaguers. It may seem like he's been around forever, but Renteria is only 32 and still a quality hitter with respectable speed potential. An ankle injury limited him to 124 games last season, but when healthy he had a .390 OBP and he's reached double-digit stolen bases in every season of his career except one.
Projection: With better health in '08 he'll hit .300-14-73-14 for the Tigers.
11. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox, $18
Cabrera enjoyed another productive season for the Angels in '07, but he was traded to the White Sox in November and will supplant Jose Uribe as the starting shortstop. Cabrera set career highs for average (.301), runs (101), and OBP (.345) last season and stole 20 bases for the fifth time in seven seasons. A good hitter against both left-handed pitchers and right-handed pitchers, he brings quality fantasy production to every category except home runs.
Projection: He's a strong second-tier fantasy shortstop who should continue to run in Chicago as Ozzie Guillen will try to manufacture runs, so look for him to hit .283-8-81-21 this season.
12. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee, $17
Hardy was a fantasy monster in the first half last season, hitting .280-18-54 before the break and earning his first trip to the All-Star Game. His power faded in the second half, however, as he hit .273-8-26. His inability to get on base consistently (.323 OBP) led to him bouncing up and down the batting order. His production was similar at home (.279-15-42) and on the road (.276-11-38), but he has better potential if the Brewers move him back into the No. 2 spot behind Rickie Weeks.
Projection: If he moves to the bottom half of the lineup as projected when Mike Cameron returns, expect a slight decline to .279-18-77-3.
13. Khalil Greene, San Diego, $16
Greene finally stayed healthy and flashed plenty of power last season for the Padres, hitting 27 homers with 97 RBIs. But his .291 OBP ranked last among NL shortstops and he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts (120) in order to avoid being an average killer for his fantasy owners. His average was sub-par against both left-handed pitchers (.242-6-27) and right-handed pitchers (.249-21-70) and he was dreadful hitting at home (.216-12-40, compared to .288-15-57 on the road). The power improvement was great to see, but the lowly average and health risks are still there.
Projection: Look for a season of .256-22-88-5 in '08.
14. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland, $16
Peralta bounced back from his disappointing '06 season, regaining his power stroke (21 homers, 72 RBIs) and improving his OBP to .341. He's now delivered 20 home runs and 70-plus RBIs in two of his past three seasons as laser-eye surgery last off-season seemed to help him see the ball better. A much better hitter at home (.297-16-46) than on the road (.243-5-26), Peralta lost some weight last offseason and added an element of speed to his game, converting 4-of-8 stolen base attempts.
Projection: Still just 25, his stock is on the rise as he will deliver a .274-22-77-4 season in '08.
15. Felipe Lopez, Washington, $15
Lopez was a major disappointment in '07. He finished with 20 fewer stolen bases from the year before, his average declined significantly for the second straight season and his OBP fell to just .308. He never got untracked at the plate, hitting just .230-5-31 vs. right-handed pitchers. He hit just .246-2-16 at home and .245-7-34 on the road, while striking out 109 times as the Nationals' No. 1 or 2 hitter in the lineup.
Projection: His speed potential and dual-eligibility are enticing, but expect just .258-10-52-25 in '08 as he continues to struggle.
16. Stephen Drew, Arizona, $15
After showing plenty of promise in '06, Drew was a bust for fantasy owners last season. His batting average tumbled badly (.238) as he got off to a rough start (.242-4-29 in the first half) and never got untracked (.232-8-31 after the break). Handicapped with a .313 OBP, he struggled badly at home (.218-6-28 compared to .257-6-32 on the road). He stepped up offensively in the playoffs, a positive sign heading into this season, but a six-month slump is a bad sign.
Projection: He's just 25 and the '04 first round pick has 20-20 potential, so look for him to bounce back and hit .267-14-70-11 in '08.
17. Julio Lugo, Boston, $15
Lugo continues to be a one-dimensional fantasy player, speed being his one major asset. His 33 stolen bases marked the fourth straight season he had at least 20 and he did finish with 73 RBIs and 71 runs, but that career-low .237 average was a killer. His OBP was a weak .294 and he hit poorly against both left-handed pitchers (.219-3-23) and right-handed pitchers (.239-5-50). He did enjoy hitting at Fenway Park, however, batting .286-2-40 there, compared to a mere .190-6-33 on the road. In this lineup, he should garner solid run production numbers again.
Projection: Draft him for the stolen bases and project .265-9-63-30.
18. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta, $14
Escobar will take over as the Braves' starting shortstop now that Renteria has been traded to Detroit. Escobar showed little power or speed in the minors (.333-2-29, 7 stolen bases at Triple-A Richmond last year) or during his 94 games with Atlanta last season (5 SBs), but he did hit .326 with a .385 OBP for Atlanta. A strong hitter both at home (.331-3-14) and on the road (.322-2-14), Escobar could develop into a double-digit stolen base threat in the near future. But for now, his best assets are his average and versatility as he starts '08 qualifying at second base, shortstop and third base.
Projection: Look for him to settle into his starting role at shortstop for Atlanta and hit .294-8-41-8 this season.
19. Ryan Theriot, Chicago Cubs, $12
Theriot is Lou Piniella's kind of player. He isn't overly skilled, but he's versatile, plays hard and brings a spark to the lineup. That's definitely true on the basepaths, where he swiped a career-best 28 bases in 32 attempts. He rarely strikes out (50 times in 537 ABs) and he had a .326 OBP last season with a .266 average. He's slated to start at shortstop for the Cubs this season.
Projection: If he gets at least 500 ABs, he'll hit .269-4-48-29.
20. Jason Bartlett, Tampa, $10
Bartlett saw increased playing time last year following the trade of Luis Castillo and he posted career highs across the board. He hit .265 with a .339 OBP and was effective on the basepaths, stealing 23 in 26 chances. Bartlett suffered a late season shoulder injury that didn't require surgery and will be ready for spring training.
Projection: Traded to Tampa Bay in November, he'll be the starting shortstop and will hit .266-6-47-20 in the Rays' solid lineup.
Greg Ambrosius is the director of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship -- the industry's only multi-city high-stakes fantasy baseball event. Send questions to Greg at greg.ambrosius@fwpubs.com.



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