While outfielder Matt Holliday proved a terror on pitchers at Coors Field, he also demonstrated the ability to punish thr baseball on the road, too.
Robert Beck/SI
By Greg Ambrosius, National Fantasy Baseball Championship, Special to SI.com
Fantasy baseball seasons may come and go, but one thing remains the same: The outfield is the place to look for top offensive talent. It's been that way since rotisserie baseball was developed in 1980 and it will remain that way in 2008 as well.
Whether it's power, speed or average, this position will fill the bill with a multitude of options. Last year, 40 outfielders hit 20 or more home runs, while 14 outfielders drove in at least 100 runs. A total of 47 outfielders also stole 10 or more bases, with 21 stealing 20 or more bases. The position boasts quality veterans like Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford and Grady Sizemore, solid second-year players like Hunter Pence and Delmon Young, and rising prospects like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin and Kosuke Fukudome.
Here now are my top 20 outfielders to get on draft day, along with their AL-only or NL-only rotisserie dollar values and their 2008 projections:
1. Matt Holiday, Colorado, $35
Holliday's star ascended to the top of the fantasy outfield mountain last season as he set career highs in average (.340), home runs (36), RBIs (137) and OBP (.405). A five-category threat, he was a dominant hitter, batting .302-9-30 vs. left-handed pitchers and .346-27-107 vs. righties. Although he feasted at Coors Field (.376-25-82), he also delivered strong production on the road (.301-11-55). He also reached double-digit SBs for the third consecutive season as he finished with 11. He signed a two-year deal worth $23 million in January and is our No. 1-rated outfielder in '08.
Projection: He'll deliver a standout .326-37-122-12 season for Colorado.
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, $35
Soriano's debut season with the Cubs got off to a slow start as he had only one home run in the first month. But his bat warmed up (.309-15-33 before the break; .283-18-37 in the second half) and he finished with strong production once again. Hitting leadoff resulted in fewer RBIs and a drop in OBP (.337) led to a decline in SBs (from 41 to 19). But he tore up right-handed pitchers (.311-24-54; .254-9-16 vs. LHPs) and was terrific on the road (.325-20-42, compared to .274-13-28 at home). The Cubs have promised to be careful with him this spring and to limit his running to protect a bum hamstring.
Projection: If he can stay healthy and play at least 155 games this year, he will hit .284-36-87-28 for the Cubs.
3. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay, $35
Crawford battled through an injury-plagued '07 season -- wrist, ankle and groin injuries limited him to 143 games -- but he still hit a career-best .315 and won his fourth stolen base crown in the last five years. He tied Brian Roberts with 50 stolen bases and set career highs in OBP (.355) and doubles (37). A strong hitter against both left-handed pitchers (.318-3-38) and RHPs (.314-8-42), he sizzled on the road (.342-5-39 compared to .287-6-41 at home). He hit .358-5-29 in the second half before being shut down with the groin injury.
Projection: He's a five-category star who will hit .306-15-83-53.
4. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland, $34
Sizemore's average (.277) and home runs (24) dipped a bit last season, but he more than compensated by topping 30 stolen bases for the first time in his career and posted a career-high .390 OBP. His production was strong in the first half (.280-15-46) before dropping down the stretch (.273-9-32). The decline in average was due primarily to his struggles against right-handed pitchers (.274-18-48 compared to .284-6-30 vs. LHPs), but he did top 110 runs for the third straight year and played all 162 games for a second straight year.
Projection: He's an elite fantasy OF who will reward his owners with a .288-26-82-28 season.
5. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets, $31
Beltran battled through knee injuries last season, but still delivered another banner season for fantasy owners, topping 30 home runs and 110 RBIs for the second straight season. His strikeouts increased to 111 and that contributed to a decline in his OBP (.353). But he hit well against left-handed pitchers (.301-11-30 compared to .262-22-82 vs. RHPs), while faring much better on the road (.282-22-63) than at home (.269-11-49). His 23 stolen bases (in 25 attempts) were his most since 2004 and he's reached double-digit SBs in 10 straight seasons.
Projection: He's an elite player who will hit .277-34-109-19.
6. Carlos Lee, Houston, $31
At some point, the Astros will probably regret signing Lee to a six-year, $100-million deal but he more than rewarded them in Year 1 of the contract. He topped 30 home runs for the fifth straight season, topped 100 RBIs for the fourth time in five years and reached double-digit stolen bases for the seventh time in eight seasons. His OBP was .354 and he was a standout hitter against left-handed pitchers (.324-7-29) and right-handed pitchers (.290-25-90), while thriving at home (.345-17-69, compared to .262-15-51 on the road).
Projection: He can mash with the best of 'em, so draft him early and expect .302-34-111-11.
7. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels, $31
Guerrero remains one of fantasy's most productive outfielders, although his five-category status took a major hit as he stole a career-low two bases last year because of a bum knee. He did post his highest OBP (.401) since joining the Angels and he topped 100 RBIs for the ninth time in 10 seasons. He excelled against both left-handed pitchers (.321-5-19) and righties (.318-22-106), while hitting well at home (.332-13-58) and on the road (.316-14-67).
Projection: He chose not to have off-season knee surgery, but should be recovered from shoulder and triceps injuries to hit .323-31-119-7.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle, $31
Ichiro remains one of the game's premier hitters. He has hit over .300 in every MLB season and his .351 mark was his best since '04. A keen eye at the plate resulted in his second-best OBP (.396) of his career and he has also topped 30 stolen bases and 110 runs for the seventh straight time. A quality hitter against both left-handed pitchers (.331-1-10) and RHPs (.356-5-58), Ichiro was sensational at home (.369-3-32) and merely incredible on the road (.334-3-36).
Projection: Forget about the power, but take the 210-plus hits per year and expect another solid season of .325-7-64-34 in '08.
9. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay, $28
It took awhile, but Upton finally found an everyday position -- CF -- and with a chance to play everyday he flashed the talent that has dazzled major-league personnel people for the past few years. He not only produced a 20-20 season, but despite striking out far too often (154 times), he finished with a .386 OBP (65 walks). He hit better against right-handed pitchers (.295-16-58) than LHPs (.281-8-24) while producing sizzling numbers on the road (.335-11-39, compared to .266-13-43 at home). His blend of power, speed and average will make him a standout fantasy option at two positions this season as he also qualifies at second base.
Projection: Upton has the potential to produce a .284-22-91-27 season.
10. Lance Berkman, Houston, $28
Berkman frustrated his fantasy owners at the start of last season, hitting just .244-6-28 through the first two months of the season, but he bounced back to hit .294-28-74 from June 1 on. A much better hitter against right-handed pitchers (.282-29-78) than lefties (.265-5-24), the switch-hitter still topped 30 home runs and 100 RBIs for the second consecutive season. Surprisingly, he struggled at home (.256-13-47) while flourishing on the road (.299-21-55). He'll be more consistent and his multi-position eligibility (he also qualifies at first base) gives him increased value.
Projection: Look for .294-36-111-5 from Berkman in '08.
11. Curtis Granderson, Detroit, $28
Granderson broke through in a big way last season, becoming just the third player in MLB history to record 20 homers, 20 triples, 20 doubles, and 20 stolen bases in the same season. He still struck out a lot (141), but he walked enough to raise his OBP to .361 and easily set a career-high in stolen bases (26). He hit a solid .333-20-64 against right-handed pitchers, compared to just .151-3-10 vs. lefties, while hitting better on the road (.318-13-38) than at home (.286-10-36).
Projection: He's come into his own as a power-speed threat and at the age of 27 is capable of producing a .294-23-79-22 season in 2008.
12. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit, $27
Ordonez continues to age gracefully, winning the American League batting title last season with his .363 average and topping 20 home runs and 100 RBIs for the second time in as many seasons with the Tigers. He posted an incredible .434 OBP as he tore up left-handed pitchers (.393-8-30) and right-handed pitchers (.349-20-108), while walking 76 times. A standout hitter both at home (.389-17-73) and on the road (.340-11-66), Ordonez likely won't hit .363 again, but he could top his career average of .312.
Projection: He remains a strong source for power and average and will post a .305-26-105-2 season in '08.
13. Alexis Rios, Toronto, $27
Rios improved his power last season and his improved discipline at the plate resulted in a lower strikeout rate and a higher OBP (.354). He was a standout hitter against left-handed pitchers (.345-6-26, compared to .277-18-59 vs. RHPs) and he fared well both at home (.287-13-41) and on the road (.307-11-44) as he stayed injury free. He also has increased his stolen bases each of the past two seasons, swiping 17 in 21 attempts in '07. He has 20-20 potential, and combined with his strong average, he is a top-flight fantasy outfielder.
Projection: He'll reward fantasy owners with a season of .298-23-88-21.
14. Nick Markakis, Baltimore, $27
This '03 first-round pick has blossomed in a hurry, and the best is yet to come. He struggled before the break last season (.279-9-51), but came alive in the second half in a big way (.325-14-61). He just missed a 20-20 season while hitting a career best .300 with 97 RBIs and 112 runs. He finished with a .362 OBP and was a standout hitter against right-handed pitchers (.313-16-75 compared to .250-7-37 vs. lefties). A good hitter both at home (.299-15-61) and on the road (.300-8-51), Markakis has the potential to be a superstar very soon.
Projection: If Markakis can get off to a better start this year, he will hit .297-25-107-20.
15. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees, $27
Abreu's home run output of 16 was a disappointment again and his average dipped to .283, but he topped 20 stolen bases for the ninth time in 10 seasons, topped 100 RBIs for the sixth time in seven seasons and topped 100 runs scored for the seventh time in nine seasons. In other words, he's still an upper-echelon fantasy outfielder. He finished with a .369 OBP and hit better against right-handed pitchers (.283-15-80) than lefties (.262-1-21), while hitting much better at Yankee Stadium (.326-10-54) than on the road (.241-6-47).
Projection: He still runs well and is capable of hitting .289-18-102-22 on this solid team.
16. Manny Ramirez, Boston, $26
Ramirez battled through an injury-plagued season for the second year in a row, as an oblique injury caused him to miss 29 games. His production declined noticeably as his 20 home runs and 88 RBIs were his fewest since 1997. He finished with a .388 OBP and terrorized left-handed pitchers (.344-9-22 compared to .276-11-66 vs. RHPs), while hitting well both at Fenway (.303-10-45) and on the road (.289-10-43). He's still an elite hitter, but he's now 35 and injury prone, having missed 61 games the last two years.
Projection: Hope for at least 135 games and a .302-27-101 season.
17. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels, $24
After enjoying another standout season, Hunter struck it rich in free agency, signing a five-year, $90-million deal with the Angels in November. His 28 home runs last season were the third-highest total of his career as he topped 100 RBIs for the second time. He finished with a .334 OBP while hitting much better against left-handed pitchers (.314-10-26) than righties (.276-18-81). He'll take over in center field for the Angels with Gary Matthews Jr. likely moving to left field or DH to accommodate him.
Projection: He's a rock solid power/speed producer who will enjoy his new digs and hit .282-27-99-19 in '08.
18. Eric Byrnes, Arizona, $25
Byrnes had a season for the record books as he became the 11th player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season. He has made himself into a solid player, setting career highs last year in RBIs (83), runs (103) and OBP (.353), while playing in 160 games despite his reckless abandon. He hit well against right-handed pitchers (.295-14-66; .248-7-17 vs. LHPs) last year and he also hit well at home (.295-11-49) and on the road (.277-10-34).
Projection: He likely won't steal 50 bases again, but another 20-20 season is in store as he hits .282-22-82-37 in '08.
19. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati, $24
Dunn sure loves hitting 40 home runs. He did it for the third straight season in '07 and he now has hit at least 40 homers in four consecutive seasons. He also topped 100 RBIs for the third time in four seasons. Most importantly, he improved his OBP to .386 and his batting average to .264. He still strikes out a ton (165), but the improved average helped ease the sting a bit last season. Dunn hit much better against right-handed pitchers (.278-31-77) than lefties (.237-9-29) and better at home (.277-19-56) than on the road (.252-21-50).
Projection: Be wary of the average and project .258-42-102-8.
20. Hunter Pence, Houston, $24
Pence made an immediate impact in fantasy circles after taking hold of the starting center field job for the Astros in early May. The '04 second-round pick flashed a standout average (.322), quality OBP (.360) and a good blend of power and speed. He finished third behind Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he was hitting .330-12-45 before suffering a broken wrist on July 22. He did come back to hit .306-5-24 down the stretch to prove that he's fully recovered from the injury. He was a strong hitter against both left-handed pitchers (.354-4-16) and right-handed pitchers (.308-13-53) and delivered nicely both at home (.336-7-34) and on the road (.306-10-35).
Projection: He's a top young talent who will hit .302-23-83-16 in '08.
Greg Ambrosius is the director of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship -- the industry's only multi-city high-stakes fantasy baseball event. Send questions to Greg at greg.ambrosius@fwpubs.com.



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