P1-buchholz

As tantalizing as Boston hurler Clay Buchholz is to fantasy owners, the Red Sox's plan to limit his innings this season will limit his value.

J. Meric/Getty Images

By Dennis LePore, Sandlot Shrink, Special to SI.com 

Most experts consider the term sleeper in many ways. He could be a youngster poised for his first breakout season. A veteran attempting a comeback from a serious injury.  A rookie expected to make an impact. A journeyman minor leaguer thrust into a starting role. A bench player waiting behind an injury-prone regular. Or even a utility man valuable simply for his versatility. Recently we analyzed the season's best hitter sleepers; this week, we turn our attention to the pitching mound.

American League

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: Buchholz, the best pitching prospect in the league, threw a no-hitter in his second major league start last year just hours after being called up, but has struggled in camp this spring. Great pick for the future but his innings will be limited (up to 180) this season.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees: Chamberlain, who finished the final two months as a reliever last year, might begin the season in the bullpen again. But that could change at any time. He increased his velocity into the high-90s and dominated at every stop last season but is having trouble with his command this spring. Will produce whether as a starter or set-up man, but he's limited to 140 innings either way. He's a great prospect, but everybody wants him, so he likely will be overpriced in most drafts this year.

Matt Garza, Rays: Garza throws hard and says he's willing to mix his pitches more. But he struggled early at Rochester (4-6, 3.62 ERA) before settling down last year. Most scouts think he has top starter potential. He was the key acquisition for the Rays over the winter. Great pick for the future.

Jon Lester, Red Sox: Lester has excellent poise for a lefty so young. Plus, at 225 pounds, he's 20 pounds heavier than a year ago -- all of it added muscle -- after winning a battle with lymphoma. He needs to work on his command a bit. Bosox players get a lot of hype, so don't overpay.

Francisco Liriano, Twins: Liriano missed all of last year following Tommy John surgery but has been throwing in the mid-90s this spring. He could come relatively cheap but his stamina needs work.

Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays: Litsch pitched well for AA New Hampshire last year and throws strikes but has just average velocity. He's the kind of guy who could have some short-term success until hitters figure him out.

Deep Sleepers

Scott Baker, Twins: Baker was stuck in the bullpen and also weathered a demotion to the minors last year. Once he finally got a chance at regular rotation work he pitched well. He's not afraid to go after hitters and is also willing to change speeds to keep them off balance. He relies on command rather than velocity and improved his mechanics, but he has trouble with lefties sometimes.

Jose Contreras, White Sox: Contreras struggled with his command last year and had an awful season. He also gets down on himself when things aren't going well, which doesn't help matters any. He improved a bit the last two months, which offers hope for a rebound, but he needs to improve his consistency.

Lenny DiNardo, Athletics: DiNardo, a groundball pitcher, has traditionally pitched better out of the bullpen but he was a successful starter last year until late. With all of the injuries to the A's starters this spring, he has a rotation spot locked up for now.

Justin Duchscherer, Athletics: Duchscherer, penciled into the rotation this spring, missed most of last year with a strained right hip followed by surgery on July 11. He's had great success as a reliever, but has not started since 2003. The A's think that regular rotation work will keep his arm strong.

Dana Eveland, Athletics: Eveland is contending for a spot in the Oakland rotation. He spent the majority of last season in the  minors (1.65 ERA in 33 innings) and on the DL with a strained finger ligament. He is described as "a David Wells-type" in size as well as stuff -- a finesse guy in the low-90s with a decent curve, slider and change. He could surprise if he maintains his command and his weight (a knock against him in the past).

Gavin Floyd, White Sox: Floyd, a one-time top prospect, has great stuff but has never been able to put it all together. His numbers are not great this spring, but his confidence remains high. If he can harness his stuff, he could surprise this year.

Top Prospects

Gio Gonzalez, Athletics: Gonzalez went 9-7 with a 3.18 ERA in 27 starts at AA Birmingham last year and will challenge for a rotation spot this season. He led all minor leaguers with 185 strikeouts and is a much-improved prospect.

Luke Hochevar, Royals: Hochevar was the first overall pick in the '06 draft but struggled at times last year, going a combined 4-9 with a 4.86 ERA in 27 games at Omaha and Wichita. He throws in the mid-90s with a power slider, curve and change. Good future potential, but might not be ready to produce this year.

Phil Hughes, Yankees: Hughes has command of four pitches and poise beyond his years, but needs to improve his changeup for initial success at the major league level. He also looks like he's regained most of the lost velocity caused by last year's hamstring injury. He's good, but don't get overhyped. He's only had 13 big league starts. Great pick for the future.

Ian Kennedy, Yankees: Kennedy, the Yanks' No. 1 pick in '06, will battle for a rotation spot this spring. He is a poised and intelligent with pretty good finesse stuff and outstanding control, but is not overpowering. Good pick for the future. Could be over-hyped and overpriced, though.

National League

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers: Gallardo throws in the mid-90s with a curve, slider and good control. He also showed very good poise last year at this young age. He was dominant in the minors and held his own just fine in 17 major league starts. But he will begin the season on the DL following arthroscopic knee surgery to repair torn cartilage. He hopes to return by late April. Big upside.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies: Jimenez throws hard (high-90s fastball, knee-buckling curve) and added 15 pounds of muscle due to a vigorous offseason workout program over the winter. The team hopes the added weight will help his stamina to pitch deeper into games. Could break out if he improves his control.

Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers: Kuroda throws a mid-90s fastball, slider, forkball and a "shuuto" that resembles a reverse slider. He had great control in Japan and is expected to be the  No. 4 starter. He has a 103-89 record with a 3.69 ERA in 11 Japanese seasons. He could put up similar numbers as his career ERA indicates.

Deep Sleepers

Kevin Correia, Giants: Correia learned to be aggressive as a reliever (and in eight starts late in the season) and is penciled in as the fourth starter. Has been inconsistent this spring though.

Edgar Gonzalez, Diamondbacks: Gonzalez throws fastballs and sliders from a sidearm motion and says he has a better feel for his changeup and curve. If he maintains his command, he'll be worth a pickup on reserve.

Sean Marshall, Cubs: Marshall has good stuff but was rushed to the majors in '06 and struggled with his command. He came back strong last year and is now waiting for an opening in the rotation. It will come. Grab him late or on reserve.

Andrew Miller, Marlins: Miller, a top prospect, was the key player in the Cabrera deal over the winter. He makes for a good pick for the future but needs to work on his control. He's a lock for the rotation this year by default.

Top Prospects

Homer Bailey, Reds: Bailey throws in the mid-90s with a hard-breaking curve and was one of the top pitching prospects in the minors last year. He will contend for the fifth starter's job this spring but still needs to develop a changeup and improve his command.  Great potential but risky for '08.

Johnny Cueto, Reds: Cueto has had a lights-out spring and should win the No. 3 spot in the Reds rotation heading north. He has a live arm and excellent control.

Jair Jurrjens, Braves: The hard-throwing Jurrjens has had a good spring and looks like the fifth starter as of this writing. He has good command and good stuff.

Wade LeBlanc, Padres: Bud Black likes this finesse hurler and thinks he has a shot at the rotation despite having not appeared in a game above AA-level yet. He needs to improve his fastball command.

Part II coming next week ...

Dennis LePore is the head  writer and editor of the Sandlot Shrink, a group of sportswriters with a direct pipeline to general managers, managers, coaches, players and scouts in Baseball, Football and Basketball. LePore's columns have appeared in several national newspapers, web sites and magazines over the years. At the Shrink site, he combines scouting reports and statistical data to develop his player rankings and dollar values. LePore is also the author of the Shrink's two annual books, the Fantasy Baseball Insider and the Fantasy Football Insider.