After making his presence known in 2006, Mariners reliever J.J. Putz became a full-fledged star last year.
Brad Mangin/SI
One of the toughest positions to secure on draft day is the closer's job as saves are vitally important to the success of any fantasy baseball team. The fact that 40 percent of the closers at season's end weren't closers at the beginning makes it crucial to pick the right ones each year. Once again, this year's grab bag of closers consists of proven stars, has-beens and wannabes.
Last season, a total of 18 relievers had 30 or more saves, and they include sure-fire stars like Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz and Mariano Rivera. It also includes closers like Jose Valverde, who led the league with 47 saves but was then traded to Houston, and Toronto's Jeremy Accardo, who may not hold onto the job this year. We may also see new closers in old names like Troy Percival and even Kerry Wood.
Here now are my top 20 closers to get on draft day, along with their AL-only or NL-only rotisserie dollar values and their 2008 projections:
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston, $28
The Red Sox scrapped plans to make Papelbon a starter late in spring training last year and he went back to his closer's role with impressive results. He became the fourth pitcher in major league history to reach 30 saves in each of his first two seasons as he converted 37 of 40 chances. Batters hit just .146 against him (.104 for left-handed batters; .200 for right-handed hitters) and he pitched well both at home (20 saves, 2.40 ERA) and on the road (17, 1.27).
Projection: The 84 strikeouts were nice, so expect more dominance with 3 wins, 42 saves, 79 Ks, a 1.96 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.
2. J.J. Putz, Seattle, $28
After a breakthrough season in '06, Putz took another step forward last season, increasing his saves (from 36 to 40) and wins while lowering his ERA (1.38) and WHIP (0.70). He converted 40 of 42 save chances last year and held batters to a .153 average (.148 for left-handed hitters; .158 for right-handed hitters). He was equally effective at home (6 wins, 24 saves, 1.39 ERA) and on the road (0/16/1.37). Although his strikeout total dipped, he still averaged more than 1 K/IP.
Projection: He's an elite closer who will deliver 39 saves, 4 wins, 84 Ks, a 2.24 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP for fantasy owners in '08.
3. Francisco Rodriguez, L.A. Angels $27
K-Rod had another dominant season for fantasy owners, reaching the 90-strikeout and 40-save levels for the third straight season. He converted 40 of 46 save chances and held batters to a .196 average (.178 for left-handed hitters; .210 for right-handed batters). He was equally effective pitching at home (18 saves, 3 wins) and on the road (22/2), but his ERA was over a run higher than '06 and his 1.25 WHIP was a career high. But he's only 26, so expect him to be an elite closer for several more years.
Projection: Project 4 wins, 42 saves, 93 Ks, a 2.52 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota, $27
Nathan had another standout season in '07 and the Twins picked up his $6 million option for '08. He topped 35 saves for the fourth straight season, posting all 4 of his wins at home with 19 saves (18 on the road). Batters hit just .198 against him (.205 for left-handed hitters; .191 for right-handed batters) and he again averaged more than a strikeout per inning. There has been talk the Twins could deal Nathan as part of their rebuilding mode, but he'll be an elite closer no matter where he pitches.
Projection: For '08, project five wins, 38 saves, 84 Ks, a 1.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
5. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers, $25
At age 38, Saito is no youngster, but he pitched with plenty of youthful enthusiasm and production last season for the Dodgers in his first full season as the closer. He converted 39 of 43 save chances and held opposing hitters to a .151 average (.186 for left-handed hitters/.114 for right-handed hitters). His best work came at home, where he picked up both of his wins while adding 22 saves and a 0.97 ERA (compared to 17 saves and a 1.98 ERA on the road). Averaging over 1 K/IP, Saito will hold off Jonathan Broxton for the closer's job this season.
Projection: He will dominate in '08, so look for 35 saves, 3 wins, 76 Ks, a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
6. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees, $24
The 38-year-old Rivera saw his saves decline for the second straight season, but he remains a standout closer, and the Yankees re-signed him to a three-year deal worth $45 million in November. He blew only four save chances last season, although batters hit .248 against him (.255 for left-handed hitters/.241 for right-handed batters). He finished with 13 saves and a 3.21 ERA at home compared to 17/3.11 on the road. He again averaged more than 1 K/IP.
Projection: He'll again get plenty of save chances and will finish with 37 saves, 4 wins, 72 Ks, a 2.84 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
7. Billy Wagner, New York Mets, $24
Wagner remains one of the most consistent closers in the game as he's had at least 30 saves in eight of his last 10 seasons and last year he converted 34 of 39 opportunities. Opposing batters hit .216 against him (.241 for left-handed batters; .209 for right-handed hitters) and he pitched well both at home (16 saves; 2.58 ERA) and on the road (18/2.70). He remains a solid source for strikeouts as he's had at least 80 Ks in five of the past six seasons.
Projection: He did have back spasms late last year, but project a season of 37 saves, 3 wins, 84 Ks, a 2.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in '08.
8. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox, $24
Despite pitching on a bad team with a shaky bullpen, Jenks proved his mettle last season by recording his second straight 40-save season. He overcame the shoulder concerns which dogged him in spring training to convert 40 of 46 save chances while holding batters to a .198 average. He was more effective against right-handed hitters (.163 compared to .237 for left-handed batters) but his home/away splits were nearly identical (19 saves/2.78 ERA at home and 21/2.76 on the road).
Projection: He'll finish with 43 saves, 3 wins, 67 Ks, a 2.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 2008.
9. Jose Valverde, Houston, $24
Valverde stepped into the full-time closer role for the Diamondbacks last season and was a fantasy standout. He led the majors with 47 saves in 54 chances and was practically unhittable, holding batters to a .196 average (.202 for left-handed hitters; .189 for right-handed batters). His splits were close at home (26 saves/2.80 ERA) and on the road (21/2.48). Traded to the Astros in December, his save potential remains strong as he'll be supported by a powerful offense.
Projection: Look for him to finish with 36 saves, 2 wins, 77 Ks, a 3.03 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
10. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati, $23
After enjoying an All-Star season for the Brewers in '07, Cordero jumped to a division rival, signing a four-year, $46-million deal with Cincinnati in November. After falling out of favor in Texas, Cordero enjoyed a rebirth in Milwaukee. He converted 44 of 51 save chances last year and held batters to a .218 average (.225 for left-handed hitters; .212 for right-handed batters). He had most of his success at home and will miss Miller Park (1.09 ERA/28 saves, 6.55 ERA/16 saves on the road).
Projection: He'll excel and finish with 38 saves, 2 wins, 89 Ks, a 3.14 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but the move to a hitter's park is a concern.
11. Huston Street, Oakland, $21
An elbow injury limited Street to 48 games last season and he struggled at times in the closer role. He finished the season with 16 saves in 21 chances, but held opposing hitters to a .190 average (.224 for left-handed batters/.162 for right-handed hitters). He was more effective on the road (11 saves/2.92 ERA) than at home (5/2.84), but with better health he will bounce back and return to his 2006 level.
Projection: He'll deliver 33 saves, 4 wins, 73 Ks, a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.
12. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego, $20
It was a good news/bad news season for Hoffman in '07. The good news was he topped 40 saves for the fourth straight season. The bad news was he blew seven chances and had a high ERA (2.98). He had elbow surgery in October, but will be ready for spring training. Batters hit .228 against him as he struggled vs. left-handed hitters (.299 compared to .169 vs. right-handed hitters). A much better pitcher at home (23 saves/1.80 ERA) than on the road (19/4.84), Hoffman may be facing his final season in the big leagues.
Projection: For '08, expect 36 saves, 2 wins, 42 Ks, a 2.97 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
13. Manny Corpas, Colorado, $20
Corpas took advantage of injuries and poor pitching from Brian Fuentes to stake a claim to the closer's role in Colorado last season. He took over the job full-time after the All-Star break and converted 18 of 19 chances with a 1.54 ERA. Overall, he finished with 19 saves in 22 attempts and held batters to a .221 average (.234 for left-handed hitters and .207 for right-handed batters). He handled Coors Field with ease, picking up 9 saves to go with a 1.96 ERA (compared to 10/2.21 on the road).
Projection: He'll enter '08 as the closer and a full season in the role will result in 34 saves, 3 wins, 68 Ks, a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
14. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia, $19
Lidge had another up-and-down season in '07, losing his closer's job again with the Astros only to regain it before having knee surgery in October. The Astros dealt him to Philadelphia in November and he'll replace Brett Myers as the closer. He converted 19 of 27 save chances last year as batters hit .211 against him (.184 for left-handed batters; .229 for right-handed hitters). His inconsistency makes him a shaky option, but when he's right he can be a dominant closer.
Projection: He's an upside pick who will record 37 saves, 3 wins, 94 Ks, a 3.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in '08.
15. Chad Cordero, Washington, $19
After a down season in '06, Cordero bounced back in '07 for the Nationals and his fantasy owners. He wasn't the easiest closer to watch as he blew nine save chances and allowed a .253 average to opposing hitters. Right-handed batters were especially tough on him, hitting .295 (compared to just .207 for left-handed hitters). He had 18 saves and a 3.00 ERA at home while finishing with 19 saves and a 3.82 ERA on the road. The ups and downs of his game aren't going to vanish anytime soon.
Projection: He'll be good for 35 saves, 3 wins, 65 Ks, a 3.28 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
16. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta, $18
Soriano remained a standout set-up man last season and then stepped into the closer's role after Bob Wickman was released and Octavio Dotel was injured. He shined in that role, converting 9 of 12 save chances, and will enter spring training as the front-runner for the job this season. He held batters to a .181 average (.164 for left-handed hitters/.197 for right-handed hitters), but struggled at home (4.19 ERA compared to 1.91 on the road). He's no lock to keep the job all season.
Projection: Temper your expectations and hope for 27 saves, 2 wins, 77 Ks, a 2.89 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
17. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees, $17
Chamberlain burst onto the scene last season, showing standout strikeout potential while allowing just one earned run in 24 innings (0.38 ERA) and posting a solid 0.75 WHIP. He worked strictly out of the bullpen, appearing in 19 games and holding batters to a .145 average (.132 mark for left-handed hitters and .154 for right-handed batters). The Yankees have a glut of starters, so Chamberlain will start the year in the bullpen and could eventually move to the starting rotation. He's shown quality starting skills in the minors, going 9-2 last season with 135 Ks in 88.1 IP in 15 combined starts at Class A, Double-A and Triple-A.
Projection: He has big time talent and he will deliver 9 wins, 2 saves, 152 Ks, a 3.58 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season.
18. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis, $17
Entering last season, there were questions about whether Isringhausen would pitch again due to a hip injury, much less remain a top-level closer. He answered them soundly, converting 32 of 34 save chances and topping 30 saves for the seventh time in eight seasons. He held batters to a .166 average (.165 for left-handed hitters; .167 for right-handed batters) and was strong both at home (20 saves/2.57 ERA) and on the road (12/2.37). He's healthy and poised for another strong season.
Projection: Look forward to 34 saves, 4 wins, 50 Ks, a 2.69 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
19. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh, $17
Capps took over as the Pirates' closer in June and was a standout in that role, blowing only three save chances while posting a stellar 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Opposing batters hit .220 against him, but most of that production came from left-handed hitters (.281 compared to just .181 for right-handed batters). A more effective closer at home (11 saves/1.99 ERA) than on the road (7/2.58), Capps is hampered by a woeful offense, which won't give him many save chances.
Projection: He'll convert the ones he gets, so project 30 saves, 5 wins, 64 Ks, a 2.69 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
20. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs, $17
With Ryan Dempster moving into the starting rotation, the Cubs will be holding auditions for the closer's role during spring training and Marmol has emerged as a popular favorite in fantasy circles despite the presence of Kerry Wood and Bobby Howry. He fared well as a set-up man in 2007, sporting strong WHIP (1.10) and ERA (1.43) totals, fanning 96 in 69.1 IP and holding opposing batters to a miniscule .169 average. He flourished both at Wrigley (1.53 ERA) and on the road (1.32) and he has the makings of a strong sleeper pick.
Projection: Watch the competition this spring and if he emerges as the closer, project a season of 29 saves, 3 wins, 102 Ks, a 2.13 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
Greg Ambrosius is the director of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship -- the industry's only multi-city high-stakes fantasy baseball event. Send questions to Greg at greg.ambrosius@fwpubs.com.



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