Scott Baker's promising command of the strike zone offers the Twins a silver lining after an offseason in which they traded Johan Santana to the Mets.

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

By Gary Gramling, SI.com 

Every Thursday from now until September, you can come here to find an in-depth look at fantasy baseball's sell-high and buy-low candidates. But, as anyone who has just realized their "sick" co-workers are in a windowless bar watching college basketball right now knows, it's mid-March. Since the regular season isn't under way yet, we'll spend the next few weeks taking a closer look at the boom and bust picks at each position. This week it's a look at starting pitchers ...

BUY LOW

Scott Baker, Twins

Baker isn't Johan Santana. He's better.

There's a little free piece of marketing advice for the Minnesota Twins. Of course, that statement is completely false. But there's a need to overcompensate when it comes to Baker. There's not a more underappreciated young arm in baseball, especially within his own organization.

Baker has had Triple-A stints in three straight seasons now. He hit a rough patch in 2006 after a strong showing with Minnesota in '05. But last season, rather than plug Baker into the rotation, Minnesota tabbed Ramon Ortiz and Sir Sidney Ponson (and, because of that, both of those guys now have to wait another year before they're eligible for Hall of Fame inductions.) There's really no metaphor that would do this one justice: the then-25-year-old, live-armed Baker was passed over for a rotation spot because the Twins thought they were better off with Ramon Ortiz. And Sidney Ponson.

Predictably, Baker tore through Triple-A bats for a month. And predictably, Ortiz and Ponson were two of the worst pitchers on the planet for a month. By mid-May, Baker was back with the big club and the world made a little more sense. And after a couple rough outings early on, Baker seems to have settled in. And more important, he finally seems to have the trust of manager Ron Gardenhire.

Here's what to like about Baker: He's 26, he changes speeds well, and he pounds the strike zone. Baker was 17th in the majors in K-to-BB ratio last season. He works up in the zone a little too often, but he started to correct that late last season. And even when he does work up, Baker can get away with it in the pitcher-friendly Metrodome.

The Twins offense is unlikely to generate a ton of support. But Baker went 6-6 with a 3.44 ERA and 61 strikeouts after the All-Star break last season. Go a little more than double on those numbers, and you've got a pretty accurate projection for 2008.

Edinson Volquez, Reds

We gotta get out while were young/'cause tramps like us, baby we were born to run.

Little known fact: Springsteen actually wrote that song about the plight of a couple 21-year-old live-armed prospects in the Texas Rangers system. Luckily for Volquez he got out while he's young, shipped to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton.

There might not be a franchise who can match the Rangers' futility when it comes to developing pitchers. Since 1990, the top homegrown starters Texas can boast include are Rick Helling and Doug Davis. If you're really being nice you can give them partial credit for Chris Young, though Young pitched his minor league ball in the Expos system.

So even though Volquez, once the "V" in the Rangers' highly-touted "DVD" trio (if you were wondering, John Danks is in the White Sox rotation and Thomas Diamond is still stuck in the Texas system), now goes to homer-friendly Cincinnati, there's reason for cautious optimism.

Volquez is a 24-year-old who became increasingly dominant through his years in the minors. Last season was by far his best, as his strikeout rate jumped and walk rate dropped (166 Ks and 56 walks in 144.2 innings between three minor league levels). And take it with a grain of salt, but Volquez looked even better this spring, where he has seemed to clinch a rotation spot.

Like any young pitcher who doesn't have extreme groundball tendencies, Volquez will be homer-prone in Great American Ballpark. But if he continues to keep the walks down and be more economical with his pitches, he'll get the run support to do some things in Cincy. Double-digit wins, 150 strikeouts, and an ERA and WHIP around the league average look awfully good for a guy who is still going undrafted in many leagues.

SELL HIGH

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox

I guess I'm a little confused. I can't figure out why everyone was so giddy over the arrival of the right-handed Wandy Rodriguez.

Granted, Dice-K is attractive to fantasy owners because he'll continue to get big run support, as well as a lot of help from the bullpen. And he's capable of repeating his 200-strikeout rookie season. But Dice-K's disastrous second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) can't be ignored.

There's no way of pinpointing for sure what the problem was. The Sox may have simply mismanaged him in light of all those reports of Matsuzaka's mysterious Far East indestructible arm. Or, worse than that, the league simply caught up to Dice-K's wide array of pitches and arm angles. But clearly something went wrong, and Boston essentially has three options to prevent Matsuzaka from becoming the sequel to Hideki Irabu.

1) They can have him pitch to contact more often. Matsuzaka threw more pitches per start than anyone in baseball last season. But his flyball tendencies make that a very risky proposition in Fenway Park. He was fortunate to have only given up 25 home runs last season. Not to mention, there's no guarantee of how Matsuzaka will react to a potential tinkering of his approach. For fantasy owners, this route could lead to more wins, but will certainly lead to fewer strikeouts.

2) They can cut back on his innings in order to keep him strong late in the year. Take quality over quantity. Of course, fantasy owners wouldn't like that. Fewer innings means fewer strikeouts and fewer chances for wins.

3) They could bury their heads in the sand and pretend last season actually didn't look a lot like the beginnings of a nine-figure disaster.

Whatever happens, Matsuzaka enters 2008 as a huge risk for fantasy owners. But according to the fine folks at MockDraftCentral.com, Dice-K has still been a top 100 pick in most drafts, more often than not going higher than guys like Roy Halladay, Javier Vazquez and Fausto Carmona. If you're such a thrill seeker that you feel the impulse to take Matsuzaka over one of those guys, might I suggest you, go bungee jumping. Or failing that, jam a fork in your toaster. (Legal disclaimer: do not jam a fork in your toaster.)

Tim Lincecum, Giants

Everyone likes Lincecum. He's approximately 4-foot-2, weighs approximately 53 pounds, and hits approximately 127 MPH with his fastball. He struck out more than a batter an inning as a rookie, and settled in nicely as the season went on.

But Lincecum also has the most cringe-inducing delivery in baseball. He is San Francisco's biggest draw in what promises to be an ugly start to the post-Barry Bonds era. How can his right arm hold up?

I really do like Lincecum. He could easily be among fantasy baseball's top 20 starters this season if he stays healthy. But you have to factor in the injury risk, the pitch counts and, oh yeah, the support from arguably baseball's weakest lineup. You'll likely be able to get someone along the lines of Brett Myers, Chad Billingsley, or James Shields when Lincecum is ready to come off the board. He is a risk that isn't worth taking in 2008