Highy-touted reliever Joba Chamberlain may help the Yankees cool off more than a few offenses but likely won't help many fantasy owners this season.

Robert Beck/SI

Every Thursday from now until September, you can come here to find an in-depth look at fantasy baseball's sell-high and buy-low candidates. But, as anyone who got up at 6 a.m. to watch A's-Sox earlier this week knows, "real" Opening Day is still a couple days away. We've spent the preseason looking at the boom and bust picks at each position. This week, we'll wrap up preseason baseball with a look at relievers ...

BUY LOW

Brian Wilson, Giants

He throws hard, he's kind of crazy, he has a bunch of tattoos and he wrote some of the most influential music of all-time on Pet Sounds. (I know. Obvious joke of the week award.)

Everyone generally agrees that, as long as he throws strikes like he did late last season, Wilson is as close as you can get to a surefire successful first-year closer. Especially since he has virtually no pressure on what figures to be the NL's worst team, and the Giants have no one to push him for the role (Vinnie Chulk, anyone?).

But many fantasy owners are shying away from Wilson, who generally has been among the last five or so closers taken. It's because of the assumption that the Giants are going to stink. And that's wrong. Well, not wrong; the Giants are going to stink. It's just that the negative impact it will have on Wilson's value is a myth.

Take last year's Giants. Of their 71 wins, 47 of them were by three runs or less. Now, take the case of Jon Papelbon, often the first closer off the board. His Red Sox won 96 games last year. But only 49 of them were by three runs or less. (And for the record, that's not to say Wilson should be taken anywhere near Papelbon, the far superior pitcher.)

You see, the Giants have pitching (Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry, yes, even Barry Zito). What they lack is offense. When they do win this season (on nights when the wind is really swirling around, I could envision this Giants lineup scoring literally multiple runs in a single game), it's not going to be of the 10-2 variety very often.

So maybe the Giants only win 60 games this season. That would still generate about 40 save opportunities for Wilson. Even in a bad year, he locks down 30. That's why he should be coming off the board no later than 20th among relievers.

Masa Kobayashi, Indians

Taking set-up men is pretty much guesswork because even if they dominate, even mediocre closers usually pitch well enough to hold them off. And most managers take the age-old (and grammatically repulsive) approach of "if it ain't broke don't fix it." But let's use some logic to predict the future in Cleveland.

It's June 2008, and the era of technological singularity has dawned. Most of the human race has been enslaved by super-intelligent computers, and Major League Baseball games are now held in abandoned mines, with dirt clumps instead of baseballs and branches as bats. But one thing has remained constant: Joe Borowski's dirt clumps are often hit a long way. Last season, Borowski became the first pitcher in baseball history to record more than 35 saves to go along with an ERA over 5.00.

While mediocre relievers are always wildly unpredictable from year-to-year, the soon-to-be-37-year-old Borowski will likely continue to pitch like a mop-up man in '08. And considering the Indians have virtually no margin for error going against the re-stocked Tigers, they can't have Borowski on too long a leash.

Now, I know what you all are saying now: If it's not Borowski, it will be top set-up man Rafael Betancourt. And you might be right. As of now, I do not have the technology to read manager Eric Wedge's brain. But consider this: Wedge threw out the "closer's mentality" argument when justifying Borowski as his closer last season. And even during the Tribe's throw-anyone-into-the-role days of 2006, Betancourt never got an extended look.

If you're talking about closer mentality in Cleveland, look no further than Kobayashi. He spent the past eight seasons as Chiba Lotte's closer, and with 227 saves he's one of three pitchers in Japanese baseball history to top 200 career saves. Sounds like a Wedge-type of guy.

On top of that, Kobayashi is more than just a funky delivery that will throw off hitters. Kobayashi gets his fastball into the 90s, and assuming he adjusts to slightly larger U.S. baseballs, his splitter and slider should be plus pitches.

We're talking about last-round flier, or priority free agent, material here. But Kobayashi brings the same potential as 90 percent of the league's set-up men, but at a much cheaper price.

SELL HIGH

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees

Seriously, what to you want from this guy?

He's a set-up man right now. And set-up men shouldn't be going in the top 150, which is where Joba is landing in most drafts (your weekly reminder: we're talking about re-draft, not keeper leagues).

Chamberlain is not in line for saves. He'll move into the rotation later this season, but that will involve the delicate process of stretching out his arm. Since he's on an innings limit, he's unlikely to be more than a six-inning starter, limiting his chances for wins. And you can't take a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 12.75 K/9 that he put up in 24 innings last year and project similar numbers over 150 innings. All those rate numbers will drop. And if you're in a league that counts holds (the most meaningless statistic in the history of sports) drop out of said league and never play fantasy baseball again, because it's just not for you.

And of course, there's no guarantee of success once he moves into the rotation. There's a psychological aspect to facing hitters for a second, third and fourth time in a game that isn't there when you're in the bullpen. After all, if Chamberlain's profile that much different than inferior failed-starters-turned-relievers like Arizona's Juan Cruz (87 Ks in 61 innings last season), Florida's Justin Miller (72 in 61.2), or even the immortal Tyler Yates (69 in 66)?

Joba is going to have a big impact this season. But if you're one of the owners who passed on Chad Billingsley, A.J. Burnett, Jered Weaver, Joakim Soria and/or Kevin Gregg to nab Joba ... well, you've made a big mistake.