Stay away -- far away -- from most Orioles hurlers this season, especially Daniel Cabrera.

AP

Hello again, readers, especially Chicago Mike Kelly who has been trying to track me down. Here I am.

Last year I won an NL-only keeper league by maxing out my pitching points and staying competitive in offense, and the other owners complained that it was luck. I am always amazed when team owners neglect 50 percent of their points by concentrating on offense. Fantasy pitching success is seen as equal parts magic, mojo and momentum. To these naysayers I respond, "Non, mes amis ..." (and, continuing in English as that's all the French I know) "... pitching can be just as easily analyzed and predicted as offense. You just need to know how to look at the data."

Actually the other owners in my league are pretty sharp cookies and they're not going to let me get away with it two seasons in a row. When our auction is done next week, my pitching staff will likely resemble a certain western Pennsylvania team's rotation (Go Bucs!).

Since this column is about starting pitching, here are my ground rules for pitching analysis:

1. The four categories to which starters contribute vary in their dependency upon the pitcher's skills. In the order of most pitcher-dependant to least, the categories are: strikeouts, WHIP, ERA and wins.

2. The rest of the contributions to those categories come from the pitcher's team, which includes offense and defense -- reflected by a team's run differential -- and relief pitching.

3. A starter that can give you 10 or more wins is worth your while. The waiver wire is full of pitchers that will give you nine or less. You'll notice that I make a point of saying if a pitcher can reach 10 wins.

4. To assess a pitcher's skill by measuring things that are totally in his control (note that giving up a hit or a run is mostly a function of the defense), the easiest -- but not the only -- statistics to use are K/BB and K/9.

5. Because WHIP is more controlled by a pitcher than his ERA, a significant disparity between the two can indicate a pitcher's expected short-term performance. This will be covered in a later column.

These ground rules sound good in a vacuum, but how do you apply them? First, an above-average starter on a great team is usually preferable to a stud on a bad team. If you don't believe me, draft Ian Snell or Gil Meche in the fifth round this year and see how well you do. Second, if in doubt, take the guy on the better team. Third, if really in doubt, take the guy who throws more strikes and gives up less walks. Lastly, keep an eye on the bullpen situation for your starter's team as blown saves mean blown wins.

There, now go win your league with pitching (but not you, guys in my NL-only keeper league).

Probable 2008 American League Rotations

This week we will look at the probable AL rotations, but in addition to listing five starters, I will also assign a value to the team's offense and defense -- Run Differential Value (RDV) -- and its bullpen -- Bullpen Reliability Value (BRV). Both are on a scale of 1-5, where five is the best and one the worst. Since we are in the preseason, the RDV and BRV will be more qualitative than quantitative, but I will update these values as the season creates real data for us.

Players marked with "DL" are those likely to start the season on the DL. Remember, however, that most teams can get through the first few weeks of the season with four starters, so there may be no substitute called up for injured starters. Plus, some fifth starters are skipped until later in April. After this section I'll throw out some sleepers and slackers for your drafts, auctions and waiver wire pickups.

Baltimore Orioles

RDV: 2    BRV: 5  
Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen (L), Steve Trachsel, Brian Burres (L), Matt Albers

On the plus side, it's likely not the bullpen that will blow wins for this team ... If Guthrie were still with the Indians, I would pencil him in for 16-plus wins. With the Orioles, I say 11. Is this the year Cabrera puts it all together and becomes an ace? You and I don't care. Don't be tempted by the siren's call of decent Cabrera outings. He will kill your WHIP and this team is not set up to win. Loewen has been both bad and hurt during spring training, which is a combination that screams "Stay Away!" Trachsel's gonna pitch like it's 1999!  Too bad he had an ERA over 5.50 and 18 losses that year. Albers and Burres are both fighting for the last spot in the rotation, and doing it badly. Neither is worth it in AL-only. Two names to keep in mind in AL-only are Garrett Olson and Hayden Penn. Olson likely sees a callup sooner rather than later, and Penn, who was once effective, is a wild card returning from injury.

Boston Red Sox

RDV: 5    BRV: 5  
Rotation: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling (DL), Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester (L), Clay Buchholz

For wins, if in doubt, take the Boston starter (except Bartolo Colon, of course) ... Beckett is up to his old DL tricks, but he's still worth a high pick. Matsuzaka has an outside shot at being the AL leader in strikeouts and could chase 20 wins. Schilling's 41-year-old arm may not be seen until the All-Star break, if at all. At this age he's not worth the pickup, even as a Red Sox starter. Wakefield should repeat his '07 numbers, but beware that Doug Mirabelli's absence could be an issue early in the season. If he falters, think good June waiver wire pickup.  Lester's only value is wins, of which he should see 10. Buchholz is not guaranteed a spot, even though he could handle it. If he gets sent down, expect Julian Tavarez to pitch instead (although Buchholz is the better bet for you and the Red Sox).

Chicago White Sox

RDV:  3   BRV: 4
Rotation: Mark Buehrle (L), Javier Vazquez, John Danks (L), Jose Contreras, Gavin Floyd

The answer: Contreras, Floyd, and Indiana Jones. The question?  Name three men returning this summer with huge WHIPs.  Stay away from the two that have not visited the Well of Souls ... If you take Buehrle early, realize you will need to chase strikeouts in the next few rounds. Everyone has Vazquez picked to be a stud this year -- as do I -- but just beware his strikeouts tend to be a bit cyclical, so odds are he stays below 200 this year (heck, we'll take 190, won't we?). Danks has thrown a strikeout per inning this spring, and could be a great pickup if he can keep the ball down. Just to be explicit, don't draft Contreras or Floyd. There is too big a drop-off in quality between the third and fourth spots in this rotation. There is a chance Tomo Ohka will rebound his way into the rotation, but stay away anyway. Perhaps Jack Egbert will fill the void.

Cleveland Indians

RDV: 5    BRV: 4.5  
Rotation: C.C. Sabathia (L), Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee (L)

This is the team the Tigers think they are. Even bad pitchers have win value on this team.  The bullpen is strong, even if Joe Borowski loses the closer gig ... Sabathia already has over 1,400 MLB innings before his 28th birthday. Expect the same numbers as last year, but the risk manager in me worries about the workload (especially with the postseason work load). I doubted  Carmona last year and it cost me. However, going over 200 IP last year concerns me (I'm such the worrier).  He still has high value, but expect 14-15 wins with higher ratios. Westbrook is in the best situation he can be. Steal him with confidence for 15 wins, but realize the strikeouts will be lacking. Byrd will get 10-12 wins with even less strikeouts than Westbrook. Lee should be a better pitcher than the 2007 version, but he is not the strikeout king we all expected. He is a nice late-round 10-win option if he stays in the rotation. The best thing for Aaron Laffey's value this year will be the inevitable injury to Westbrook, Byrd, and/or Lee. When he gets called up, jump on Laffey (not literally, of course). I've soured on Jeremy Sowers, but keep an eye on him and Adam Miller regardless.

Detroit Tigers

RDV: 5    BRV: 3.5  
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers (L), Nate Robertson (L), Dontrelle Willis (L)

Call them the Paper Tigers, as they may be the best team on paper, but the pitching staff has been awful this spring. The real gap between the Tigers and the Indians is the former's shaky and injured bullpen. Since Miguel Cabrera cannot pitch the ninth (I'm assuming), expect blown saves and starters staying in games too long ... Verlander will deliver this year, but remember he's perhaps the fourth or fifth best starter in the AL. Do not take him in the third round. Bonderman has only pitched over 200 innings once. Do not expect him to see that amount this year, but he should get 14 wins and ratios closer to '06. Rogers is always an injury risk and will not get you strikeouts.  I just don't think he's worth it. Robertson has been the one sharp Tigers starter this spring and could be good for 11-13 wins. However, keep an eye on that fly ball rate. A stronger team and a better defense were supposed to help Willis, but temper your expectations. Anyone who can post an ERA over 5.00 in Florida can kill your ratios even on a good team. While not the strongest rotation, the five spots are set and only a Rogers' injury could open the door. Your man to stash away is Yorman Bazardo. But if Detroit were smart -- and they are -- they would consider pressing him into emergency closer service, but this is only speculation on my part.

Kansas City Royals

RDV: 2    BRV: 4  
Rotation: Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Zach Greinke, Brett Tomko, John Bale (L)

I want to say the Royals will improve this year, but they were so far behind last year that any change is incremental at best. ... Meche pitched better last year than his 9-13 record, and those numbers would have been reversed with the Indians or Red Sox. As it is, he will struggle to get that 10th win this year. Bannister must still be regretting that slide into home with the Mets that started the chain of events that put him into this rotation (Damn that butterfly in India!). There is no way his street value will equal his true value, so let this one go. I am a fan of Greinke and Bale, but just not on this team. Tomko: bad pitcher on a bad team. Do I even need to finish my thought here? The one bright spot may be Luke Hochevar, who could still sneak into the rotation later in the year. He's more of a keeper than anything, though. Call me crazy, but I thought Hideo Nomo should have been a legitimate candidate for a rotation spot for the Royals. They need his swagger, and he had a great spring. Let's see if he turns up somewhere else.

Los Angeles Angels

RDV: 4    BRV: 5  
Rotation: John Lackey (DL), Kelvim Escobar (DL), Jon Garland, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders (L)

The Angels could turn out to be the best complete team in baseball, but I am not convinced about their offense. ... There are a lot of hurt Angels starters, most notably Lackey, who now will miss at least 25 percent of the season. He is no longer a fourth-round pick, but taking him in the seventh or later and stashing him away is not a bad plan. If everyone heals, this could be the best rotation in the majors by August. You know the drill for Escobar: DL-stints punctuated by outings of greatness. Stash him away for wins and strikeouts when healthy. I see Santana making a comeback, but not all the way back. He was awful last year and does not have an official spot in the rotation. I also see Weaver getting back his groove, but you should not temper your expectations. He is a great mid-round steal for a team that should give him 15 wins.  Saunders and Garland will create a lot of ground balls, and the Angels are an excellent example of a team whose pitching will likely live or die with the defense. At this point, I say live, and Garland can get you wins. Adenhart could see some April starts. Along with Weaver and Garland, he is your best bet for non-injured value from this rotation.

Minnesota Twins

RDV: 3    BRV: 4.5  
Rotation: Livan Hernandez, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano (L), Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey

Trading away Johan Santana ended any shot the Twins had in the tough AL Central. That makes '08 a rebuilding year for them, although they will still be respectable (think Toronto, not Oakland).  Part of the Twins problem, though, is too many arms to evaluate this March. Some just didn't get the innings the needed. ... Too bad Hernandez left the NL as his bat had become more valuable than his arm. Even for the Twins his ERA could creep over 5.00.  I would only take him in deep AL-only leagues. If Baker can keep his ERA under 4.00 (or more to the point, if his team can help him do so), then he may be the wins leader on this team at say, 11-13. Even if Baker's current illness puts him on the DL to start the year, still draft him. Everyone forgets that Tommy John surgery was never intended to have a 14-month recovery period. It's more like 18 months.  Liriano will be a great pitcher in '09, but he still needs time to recover this year. He will go a lot higher than he should, so do not chase him. I don't care how many strikeouts Bonser gave you last year. He was terrible. Spring has not revealed any reason he will drastically improve his control, even if he is more buff. If Slowey were on a better team, I would be all over him as a sleeper. As it is, expect good ratios, and decent strikeouts, but wins will be tougher than they should be. I would only chase Perkins in deep AL-only leagues, but Humber could have some value in all AL-only leagues if he gets a chance.

New York Yankees

RDV: 4.5    BRV: 4.5   

Rotation: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte (L), Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy

Do not draft Joba Chamberlain thinking he will find his way to the starting rotation. The Yankees will find he has more value in the bullpen ... Chien-Ming Wang continues to win without striking out batters. However, he came up to a respectable strikeout level last year and could yield another 19 wins. Now that the beatification of Pettitte is over, the beat-down can start. Actually, expect his usual slow start -- numbers about the same as last year, and perhaps less wins in a tougher AL East. Anyone who doesn't believe in the contract year bump in performance theory needs to look at Mussina's 2006 season. Now that he is in another contract year, expect better numbers than '07 (but maybe not as good as '06). Hughes has been rocked a couple of times in spring training, but do not read too much into that. As a Yankees starter, pencil him in for that magic 10 win level. And why do I think Chamberlain won't see much time in the rotation this year? Kennedy, that's why. Kennedy raced through the minors last year, and has shown no reason to doubt him. He could end up with the third most wins on this team, which is a lot. And let's just all forget Kei Igawa even existed.

Oakland A's

RDV: 1.5    BRV:3.5   
Rotation: Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin (DL), Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland (L)

Playing the A's will not be an automatic win, but it will be close. Watching this team rebuild will not be pretty, especially if trade deadline deals are made. ... Blanton is the new ace for this club and can do the job. However this team caps his win at 12. My love for Harden has gone unrequited the last couple of years. If healthy, he will have as many wins as Blanton, more strikeouts and a new uniform in September. Gaudin will not start until mid-April, but I wouldn't wait for him. His second half last year was awful. The A's like Duchscherer as a starter and Lenny DiNardo as a reliever. Funny, I feel the opposite way. Eveland is yet to show he is more than a AAAA pitcher, but he will have his opportunity with the A's. If you take him late (I did), sit him until he proves he can throw at the Major League level. In a normal up year for this team, I would mention Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Dan Meyer. Instead I will just say stash Gonzalez away in deep AL-only keeper leagues for next year.

Seattle Mariners

RDV: 4    BRV: 5
Rotation: Erik Bedard (L), Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn (L), Miguel Batista

The Mariners could be a very strong team this year and bump that RDV to five. It comes down to how many at-bats Richie Sexson gets (more is bad) ... Bedard should send Johan Santana a thank you note as his exit makes Bedard the best AL starter. Hernandez's numbers should not be too far below Bedard's (or could be even better). In '05 I wrote he was three years away from earning his reputation value.  It's '08, so this is Hernandez's year. There's a part of me that loves Carlos Silva's control, but the batters make too much contact with his pitches. Even though the Mariners will be strong, only take him in the late rounds (if you have to) and pray your WHIP can take it. Washburn's WHIP has been steadily over 1.30 the past four seasons, and could even crack 1.40 this year. Expect 10 wins, 100 K, and bad ratios. I will repeat the Batista mantra once more: hard to hit, easy to beat. However, if used correctly, some of those losses could stay wins, especially with this bullpen. He will be forgotten in most drafts because no one expects him to see 16 wins again. Except me (or at least 14 wins). However, don't freak out when he begins the year in the bullpen. He will start after mid-April. I am a big Cha Seung-Baek fan and am hoping he takes Silva's spot in the rotation. If he shows he is healthy, take him late and store him away. Brandon Morrow is likely another year away from consideration.

Tampa Bay Rays

RDV: 3.5    BRV: 3.5  
Rotation: Scott Kazmir (L) (DL), James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel

Let me be among the growing legions to say, "Hey, those '08 Devil Rays aren't that bad." There are middle relief questions, but their hitters of the future have arrived and the rotation is stronger. Plus, do not underestimate a rejuvenated Troy Percival's impact on the team's win total despite the middle relief. ... With Yo-haaan Santana gone (someone needs to teach a major fantasy sports outlet how to pronounce Yo-hahn) Kazmir could lead the AL in strikeouts and see 15-plus wins. However, the Rays are being coy about his elbow, and he will likely miss at least half of April. Shields is another high-K pitcher, but his ratios will not be quite as good as Kazmir's. On another team, pencil in 15 wins for Shields. On the Rays, say 11-13. And following this rotation downhill, Garza will like have two less wins than Shields, about 20 percent fewer strikeouts and worse ratios.  Sonnanstine's numbers should be about the same as Garza's except you can probably get him three or four rounds later. Sonnanstine is the true stealth ace candidate here if he can pitch better at night. I know Jackson is only 24, but he has already burned me enough times to be 31. Don't be fooled by the occasional moments of brilliance. Only heartache lies this way. Even though the Rays are better, they're not good enough for you to worry about Hammel or any other lower pitcher not named Jeff Niemann. No promises that Niemann will have value this year, but he's a keeper for 2009, the Year of the Ray.

Texas Rangers

RDV: 2.5    BRV: 4
Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Brandon McCarthy (DL), Kason Gabbard (L), Luis Mendoza

The Rangers get a good grade for relief because of the wealth of experience as closers, and because Kazuo Fukumori will eventually be the ninth inning stopper. In most years taking Rangers starters is bad for your ratios and wins. This season is no exception ... Millwood is a B- fantasy pitcher playing for a C- team. You can live without him, but if you need a Rangers pitcher, he is it. Oddly enough Padilla pitched much better at home in Arlington than on the road. If you end up with him, try just starting him at home. Three words about Jennings: NO, NO, NO. Gabbard went from being a fantasy dark horse in Boston to a lame horse in Texas. Avoid. Mendoza will likely get starts while McCarthy is on the DL. Mendoza won't strike out a lot, which even with the ground balls is not what you want in a Texas pitcher. Oh, and avoid McCarthy when he returns after two months or so. Okay, if you really need a name, when Elizardo Ramirez sneaks into the rotation watch his first couple of starts and act accordingly. The Rangers are pursuing John Patterson. While he has had lots of potential, he's only shown flashes of it. Don't waste your time waiting for him to blossom. Washington didn't.

Toronto Blue Jays

RDV: 3    BRV: 3
Rotation: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch

Wait, how could the Blue Jays have an RDV of three, the same as the Rangers and Twins? The problem is that no matter how good the Blue Jays' offense has become, they still have to play 22 percent of their games against the Red Sox and Yankees. ... Halladay has been awesome in spring training. Draft without reservation. Burnett has been awful, and has a fingernail issue. His '07 ratios were great, but he has a tendency to insert the odd sub-1.20 WHIP season in between good but not great seasons. Expect good but not great. If McGowan repeated last year's numbers that would be enough. Expect better. If Marcum is recovered from last season's knee surgery, taking Marcum in the 10th round will be a better value than taking Burnett in the fifth or sixth. Litsch has a spot in the rotation because Casey Janssen is out with a torn labrum. That's not a good qualification for your fantasy team. Do not hold your breath for Gustavo Chacin to return to form. 

Sleepers and Slackers

Below are guys of mixed talent levels from good and bad teams who could either bring you more value than their draft pick should (sleepers), or will never come close to the value their pick commands (slackers).

AL Starting Pitcher Sleepers

Nick Adenhart (LAA): I was disappointed that Adenhart was not available in my Yahoo! draft last week (quit reading, Neil) as I see him being a rookie sensation in the AL (tune in next week for my NL pick). The injuries may allow him to sneak into the rotation in April. Whenever he comes up, it will be hard for the Angels to send him back down.

Miguel Batista (SEA): The Mariners are back but all the hype will be heaped upon Bedard and King Felix. Batista won't help you with ratios or strikeouts, but he will likely go undrafted in your league even though he could get 12-plus wins for this team.

Yorman Bazardo (DET): Bazardo is not in the rotation, and is a guy the Mariners gave up on. But he has shown great control and anyone who pitches for that offense will win ballgames. The bullpen could blow it for him, but his ratios should help you. Now we just have to wait for Kenny Rogers to get hurt.

John Danks (CWS): Danks may be the key to the entire AL Central. Detroit's bullpen is not strong enough to let them run away form the other teams, and the Indians will be in the hunt all year. To stay with both of these teams Danks will need to pitch like a No. 2, which I'm saying he will. Suddenly I'm becoming a Sox fan.

Andrew Sonnanstine (TB): Sonnanstine has had a great spring training and showed flashes of brilliance last year (mixed in with moments of drech). He had trouble pitching at night ('07 splits: 4-2, 4.46 ERA day; 2-8, 6.39 ERA night), and if he can fix that, then he could have a breakout year, even in Tampa.

Jered Weaver (LAA): Perhaps his great spring has alerted more people than it should, but Weaver (the good one) is primed to succeed this year, with a strong team behind him. With Lackey out, he may be the only sure full-season bet on the Angels.

Jake Westbrook (CLE): Westbrook may be the prototype for good pitcher on a great team equals high wins. He could provide 15 wins, which we have all learned has immense value, even without the strikeouts.

AL Starting Pitcher Slackers

Brian Bannister (KC): If he were still with the Mets (i.e., a good team) I would say go get him. But he's not, so I won't. Let others draft him too early on name recognition.

Daniel Cabrera (BAL): Just in case I was too cryptic in my criticism above: STAY AWAY FROM CABRERA! Heck, stay away from all Orioles starters except Guthrie, who likely gets taken too high in your draft.

Livan Hernandez (MIN): Hernandez is proof that being a number one pitcher in a rotation does not guarantee success. Let someone else take him and his likely 5.00-plus ERA too early.

Edwin Jackson (TB): Every time I think I'm out, they pull me back in. But this time I'm out for good. Jackson will amaze every now and then, but overall he will kill you. Move on.

Jason Jennings (TEX): Jennings has always pitched in hitters' parks, but his ground ball to fly ball ratio keeps going the wrong way (i.e., down) to combat this.  His ratio in spring training is 1.15, which is passable, but his velocity is down, and he still has to prove he can do that in real games. I wouldn't hold your breath hoping it happens.

Carlos Silva (SEA): Perhaps we are all educated enough to realize Silva is a terrible pick, but the point I want to make is that the talent chasm between the No. 2 (Felix Hernandez) and No. 3 pitcher (Silva) on the Mariners may be the biggest in the majors. Do not draft pitchers based on rotational placement.

Dontrelle Willis (DET): Sure it's only spring training, but Willis has not shown any improvement, even with the Tigers defense behind him. His name and new team strength will boost him up draft lists. Don't boost him up yours.

Next week, we'll tackle the NL rotations. 

David Young is a fantasy baseball expert who has written weekly columns for, among others, ESPN and Sports Illustrated's websites. He also won KFFL's Expert League in 2007. Send him a comment or question at davebaseball29@yahoo.com.