The Royals' Zack Greinke has posted an impressive 3-0 mark with a tiny 1.25 ERA through his first five starts this season.

By Gary Jennison, FantasyBaseball.com, Special to SI.com

This week will be the much-promised look at individual and team pitching statistics, we will update these every month or so, and hopefully they'll allow a look at some pitchers in some different ways.

Individual Pitcher Analysis

The following are the 20 pitchers (20IP minimum) with the largest variances from expected ERA based on the FB.com xERA formula, which is based on K/9, K/BB, and HR/9. We will outline the reasons why each of these pitchers are performing as they are and try and give a recommendation on where things might go from here. First the 10 overachievers, next the 10 underachievers.

• For the most part, these pitching lines speak for themselves:

• Greinke is pitching fairly well, but low K rate a bad sign and HR rate likely to rise, plus won't strand runners at that rate.

• Olsen benefiting from an unsustainable BABIP and LOB rate, low K rate, high BB rate, reversion certain.

• Gabbard is keeping the ball in the park but not doing too much else well, the slide will begin soon.

• Sheets is pitching fine, but his ERA will rise somewhat with those peripherals.

• Saunders and Chacon benefiting from low BABIP with mediocre peripherals, as well as HR numbers that will likely rise.

• Floyd has had gopheritis but benefiting mightily from BABIP numbers that hide his K and BB issues.

• Chacon will start pitching like...well, Shawn Chacon soon, with those K and BB numbrs.

• Peavy is pitching fine - K/BB isn't dominant but it's good enough to win a lot of games, though not keep the current ERA.

• Suppan will likely regress some, but has been marginally affective for awhile now with mediocre peripherals.

The underachievers

• Zito can't strike anyone out, walks too many, and gets drilled when they do make contact. The bullpen isn't the right place for him right now, more like the clubhouse attendant job, but he's been awful.

• CC's had a bit of gopheritis and walking too many, but overall, his situation should improve. Unless theres a hidden injury, I still expect low to mid 4s ERA from him. Not what you paid for, but its only about going forward, the past is gone.

• Jimenez is walking too many and benefiting from a low HR rate - the BABIP reversion he's likely to see will probably get washed out by some degree by the BB and HR catching up to him.

• Robertson is a buy-low at this point, good K and BB rates, HR rate isn't great and not likely to drop much, but the BABIP and LOB will.

• Morris can't strike anyone out and is getting killed when the ball gets hit. Regression to the mean won't help much.

• Billingsley -- the BB rate is cause for concern, but look at the xERA - buy, buy, buy. That K rate is awesome and you could get a young stud cheap.

• Sampson's xERA is propped up by a low HR rate - when all the regression works itself out you might have a slightly useful but most likely mediocre pitcher.

• Gorzelanny has gotten his share of hype, but there is nothing remotely positive in his stat line.

• I am surprised at Hughes' inability to get strikeouts -- he's still a nice buy low target in keeper leagues and he should pitch much better in the second half.

• If you own Miller its as a longer term play -- right now he needs to walk a few less but otherwise, when the results even themselves out, he should be a good pitcher.

You will find that the "underachievers" for the most part have pitched terribly, so seeing them on this list does not make them a buy-low candidate by itself. The peripherals are the important thing to study.

Team Defense/BABIP Analysis

The following is a year-to-date analysis of BABIP by team, compared to the 2007 BABIP. The AVG BABIP is simply 2007/2008 averaged - yes, I realize we're only 30 games into 2008 and nothing is too predictive just yet. But the information is still somewhat useful. That said, this is not just a defensive issue, certainly the pitchers involved do have some control over balls in play, but we do look to see if anything sticks out.

We see that most of the teams somewhat in their general area rank-wise, though to date, Tampa Bay is clearly benefiting from some changes in their roster and perhaps some difference in pitching performances. This had been predicted anyways just based on normal regression, but the difference should show up in the pitching lines of many on their staff. SF manages to have a decent BABIP even with Zito getting shellacked. Baltimore for now looks the best, though it will recede.

One thing to note - the overall BABIP in 2007 was .304, to date in 2008 it's .293. This is likely the issue of pitchers ahead of hitters and cold/inconsistent weather, which is why we also look at rank instead of the raw BABIP number.