Rafael Furcal and his Dodgers teammates have been hell on lefties this season, a fact fantasy owners should take note of before starting any southpaw.
AP
By David Young, Special to SI.com
Last week we looked at the strengths and weaknesses of the bullpens for all 30 teams, which should be considered when making personnel moves concerning your starting pitchers. This week, we'll look at a factor to consider when deciding to start or sit your pitchers for the week: how teams hit against left-handed pitching. Note that I will not be talking about two-start pitchers as there are already good columns out there to help you with that decision (most notably Sport Illustrated's "Two to Tango").
Managers love playing the individual lefty/righty percentages because even if they fail, everyone tells them they did the right thing. For the fantasy starting pitcher owner, it's an issue of whether an entire team bats well or not against a southpaw or a, well, northpaw? Regardless, the idea is a lefty will pitch well against left-handed batters (and vice versa) because the ball is being released from behind the batter's head. Depending on the pitcher's release point and the batter's stance, the ball can briefly leave the batter's field of view before reappearing near the plate.
So for fantasy analysis, the obvious numbers to look at are AVG (batting average) and OBP (on-base percentage). But while I also throw in RPG (runs scored per game) and strikeouts, the stat that may be most telling is a team's SLG (slugging percentage) against lefties. The SLG tells you not just whether the batters are connecting, but how well. So knowing this, throughout the games on Sunday, May 4, here's what we have:
NL BEST AGAINST LEFTIES
RNK | TEAM | AVG | OBP | SLG | RPG | K/BB |
1 | LAD | .318 | .376 | .471 | 2.8 | 54/46 |
2 | ARI | .293 | .372 | .481 | 2.4 | 69/42 |
3 | MIL | .270 | .348 | .476 | 1.9 | 50/28 |
So these are the three teams to avoid in the NL when starting your lefties. I keep waiting for teams to figure out the Diamondbacks are almost all righties, and take advantage of that by sitting their lefty pitchers. Of course, as I write this, lefty Jamie Moyer is dealing against the D'backs, but that just might mean they do well against lefties born after the Kennedy administration. Note that I could have easily added Houston to this list of teams that succeed against lefties.
NL WORST AGAINST LEFTIES
RNK | TEAM | AVG | OBP | SLG | RPG | K/BB |
16 | SD | .196 | .272 | .333 | 1.1 | 66/28 |
15 | FLA | .220 | .305 | .329 | 0.9 | 83/34 |
14 | COL | .212 | .311 | .343 | 1.3 | 47/26 |
Quick, why is it OK to insult the San Diego Padres? Because no matter what you say, the Padres take no offense. I feel for you if you drafted any Padres position player besides Adrian Gonzalez. Florida is finding ways to win, but I wouldn't spot-start their pitchers if their opposing pitcher is a lefty. Colorado should score more runs soon, but losing Troy Tulowitzki was a huge blow. Expect them to try to play more small ball and get more steals for Willy Tavarez and Scott Podsednik (just a little bit of an offensive tip).
AL BEST AGAINST LEFTIES
RNK | TEAM | AVG | OBP | SLG | RPG | K/BB |
1 | SEA | .321 | .371 | .491 | 2.4 | 24/22 |
2 | DET | .265 | .348 | .444 | 1.7 | 26/21 |
3 | BAL | .276 | .339 | .443 | 1.1 | 42/21 |
Seattle's dominance of lefties is unsustainable, but at this point in the season, it's something to keep in mind. Remember all you gamblers out there (not that I'm advocating betting on baseball), this means that opposing lefties will get crushed by the Mariners, but not that Seattle will necessarily win. Numbers like these keep me from worrying about the Tigers at this point in the season. Their pitching doesn't need to be good with an offense like that.
AL WORST AGAINST LEFTIES
RNK | TEAM | AVG | OBP | SLG | RPG | K/BB |
14 | MIN | .245 | .279 | .313 | 1.2 | 60/13 |
13 | NYY | .232 | .312 | .314 | 1.0 | 57/31 |
12 | TOR | .219 | .301 | .338 | 1.2 | 46/25 |
It's amazing that no matter how many personnel changes the Twins have had, they perennially can't hit lefties (I once won a league a few years ago by starting a very old Terry Mulholland against them at the end of the season). I wonder if it has anything to do with the batting eye at the Twinkie Dome. Regardless, after remembering Seattle kills lefties, the Twins being owned by lefties is the best take-home lesson from this part of the column. The Yankees will likely snap out of their offensive funk. And when I say "snap out of it" I mean they'll steal a great hitter from a small-market team. Toronto is finding themselves in a year with limited offense but wonderful starting pitching.
Mound Minutes
• OK, so John Smoltz is going back to the bullpen to be a closer. I suppose it's on a case-by-case basis as to whether that helps or hurts all us Smoltz owners out there, but overall (and for me), it hurts. He was on track to be a top-five starting pitcher in the NL. Now he will close for a medium-level team. On the plus side, I was right (words I get to write with less frequency than I would like) last week about Jo-Jo Reyes. Granted, he had an easy assignment against the Reds and his walks can be troublesome, but he should have value even in mixed leagues.
• Aaron Laffey has been let down by his team twice now. Against the Yankees, he could only watch as the Bronx Bombers were reduced to infield singles watched by infielders too far back to record an out, and lost his lead. Against Kansas City, the Indians bats fell silent and his quality start was in vain. Despite the lack of wins, Laffey has value in all leagues (well, maybe not NL-only ...).
• Former Tigers and Twins great Jack Morris told beat writers Sunday that he thought Justin Verlander was hiding an injury. Morris said he noticed Verlander wasn't extending his arm like last year, but Verlander denies any problems. Granted both have their own agendas - Morris to show he's a smart analyst, and Verlander to show he's worthy of his rotation spot - but something is missing from Verlander this year. His velocity has been fine but he's getting hit hard (hmmm, another AL Central starter had that same problem until turning things around recently). So the best case scenario may be that Morris has detected a delivery flaw that can be fixed. The worst is that Verlander is heading toward Tired Arm City, which is close to 15-Day DL Land. Keep Verlander on your team, but benched until further notice.
• And just to pile things on Verlander, guess who is tied for the MLB lead in hit batters with Tim Wakefield at six. I've never understood why a pitcher's control is measured by strikeouts against walks, but without HBP. So I calculate it: True Control = K/(BB + HBP). For Verlander if you throw in the six hit batters, his true control ratio is below 1.00, which gives him worse control than, gulp, Daniel Cabrera.
• How do you give up eight walks and only one run? Daisuke Matsuzaka is a better pitcher than his outing against Detroit indicated, but he also illustrated the larger margin for error created for starters playing on good teams.
• In March I said to expect a renaissance season from Ervin Santana, but I'll be truthful, I didn't expect this. Oddly enough, he's still pitching slightly better at night than during the day, but in both splits he's been worthy of a No. 1. Do I expect the new Santana to keep dealing? Yes, especially since he plays for such a good team (look what they've done for Joe Saunders). And we'll chalk up Nick Adenhart's awful first outing to jitters. Let's see how he does next time.
• Mark Mulder got rocked in his Triple-A start, but he claims it meant nothing. He says he's healthy and that like spring training, he was just working on a few things. Okay, we'll give him one start like that, but not two. Keep an eye out for the results from his next minor league start.
• How's that $40 Johan Santana working out for you? Yes, it's premature to determine his seasonal worth, but except for strikeouts, he hasn't separated himself from the rest of the pack, has he? Expect a better W-L record the rest of the way, though.
• I still see Cliff Lee coming down to earth, but knowing what we know about the Mariners and what they do to lefty pitching, his quality start against them is even more impressive.
• Every year I draft Ian Snell late with the understanding his ratios and strikeouts will be worth the frustration created by his lack of wins (come to think of it, that may be Laffey's job this year). Looks like time has run out on that strategy. This year, even his ratios are hurting me. There's no reason to hold onto Snell, unless as a No. 5 in an NL-only league.
• Max Scherzer was amazing in his debut for the Diamondbacks, but now I'm holding my column (that doesn't sound right, does it?) to see how his first start went ...Ten hours later and I see that Scherzer had a rough outing. On the plus side only two of the five runs he gave up were earned. However, he appeared every inch the rookie, which is what he is. He never looked relaxed and seemed out of breath. Expect Scherzer to get another start and to pitch better. If anything, the guy he replaced in the lineup, Edgar Gonzalez, had worse numbers in relief in the same game.
• Next week we'll be at the quarter mark of the season and we'll be able to really look at the numbers. Some rotations have remained steady while others have revolving doors. There have been ample opportunities to find worthy starters on the waiver wire, and hopefully I've steered you in the right direction.
• Oh, and if you're looking for a pitcher to root for, you could do worse than John Maine. At the Mets-Diamondbacks game Sunday he handed my son, Alex, a ball, which made his week. Thanks, John.
When he's not conducting sabermetric analyses of the players from his 10-year-old Pony League baseball team, David Young is a fantasy baseball expert who has written weekly columns for, among others, ESPN and Sports Illustrated's web sites. He also won KFFL's Expert League in 2007. Send him a comment or question at davebaseball29@yahoo.com.



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