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  • August 05, 2008 07:37 PM ET

Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the division?

wryipsfhkzcbm (0-1-0) vs Coletrain (302-88-22)
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Ill go with the minority and say they will. Even though they dont have the grinding-down-the-stretch experience as New York or Boston has, there are a combination of factors that will help them keep their successful stride as they head into the final months before the postseason.

1. Stengths - They have had an excellent pitching staff all season long. A pitching rotation that includes Scott Kazmir, Scot Shields, and Matt Garza, and a bullpen that has consistently closed out games have combined for the 4th best ERA, the best batting average against, and the 2nd most shutouts in the Major Leagues. They have the most stolen bases in the Majors, and it has also helped their defense commit the 4th fewest errors in the American League.

2. Durability - The youth of the Rays players certainly helps keep them strong and less injury prone than the older veterans of teams like Boston and New York. Sure, every team will have some injuries, but since June 27th, their only position player to be injured is Jason Bartlett.

3. Schedule - 25 of their last 33 games of the season are against their own division, and they own an A.L. East best 28-19 record against them.

The TB Rays will win.


All your points are very fair and good at that. But I disagree. I do not think they can hold on for a few reasons:

1. Experience- You mentioned it already. This organization has ever even thought about contending before, so now in the heat of the summer and in September, it's an entirely new experience to them. Troy Percival adds experience, but he's been injured a lot and isn't the most dependable closer by any means This team has never played important baseball when every pitch matters the most and that pressure will be tough to take for an extremely young club.

2. Hitting- Their hitting is extremely inconsistent and they still strike out a ton. In my mind, they need an impact hitter at the trade deadline but didn't get one. Can't count on Rocco Baldelli to pick up your offense. Sometimes, this is an all-or-nothing line-up.

3. Road Play- They have been terrible on the road. On the road they bat .246 as a team and pitch to a 4.69 ERA. If you have that much trouble on the road, you're in trouble. They have 29 road games the rest of the way to 21 home games. Add the fact that their September schedule is pretty much brutal.

Give me Boston or New York.


Youre right, this is a team that is on the verge of passing their highest win total in 2004 with 2 months remaining. However, they have several veteran players, such as Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, Dan Wheeler, and Trever Miller, that have played on playoff contending teams that can help the younger players cope with the stress and challenges they face the next 7-8 weeks. Troy Percival may not be the player he once was, but his leadership and presence will not hurt this team.

Their hitting is not the strongest in the league, but what little they have offensively they make up with sound defense, excellent baserunning, and stellar pitching. They wont win games by 5 runs or more, but a win is a win is a win, and they sure know that with the most wins in the A.L. East.

Now, they havent been terrible on the road. They have a 23-28 road record, which is certainly a better record than Bostons 24-33 record away. The Yankees arent much better, with an even .500 record away from Yankee Stadium. Even worse for the Yankees is the fact that they have the most upcoming road games in all of MLB, and most of the teams they verse are over .500.

And with Boston losing Manny, the Rays will win.


While Floyd, Miller, Wheeler, and Hinskie are veteran guys, they're not big pieces to this team for the most part. They needed that big hitter in the line-up at least to solidify the batting order (i.e. Matt Holliday or Adam Dunn) that could change a game with one swing. While they have pop this is still a young team that will make mistakes in some pressure spots. Troy is a great clubhouse guy with guts, but I wouldn't trust him much in a big spot.

The Yanks and Red Sox, no matter the injuries or losses, always play better down the stretch and are used to pressure packed spots. Both have young, energizing players with seasoned guys who have been here before.

While the Red Sox did lost Manny, Jason Bay has appeared to be a great addition so far. The Sox have more harmony with him and he's batting in the .400 as a Red Sox. And the Rays September schedule is a torture device:

-3 vs. NY
-3 at Blue Jays
-3 at Boston
-day off
-3 at Yankees
-3 vs. Red Sox
-4 vs Twins
-3 at Orioles
-and then finish 4 at Tigers

That's an incredibly tough stretch for a young team fighting to keep ahead of the pace of 2 powerhouses.


The Tampa Bay Rays have played 112 games without a player in the likes of David Ortiz or Alex Rodriguez, yet they are still 3 games in front of Boston, and 6 1/2 games in front of New York. It clearly illustrates that you dont need an overwhelming offense when the other aspects of your team are balanced and successfully getting the job done.

Veterans are always significant to a teams development and structure. They don't need to hit 40 home runs or have a .330 average to make a difference. Theyve taught the younger players how to play the game right and to always work hard, and the results speak for themselves.

The Yanks and Red Sox have always held their own when it comes to important spots, but they have never been in this situation before, and with suprisingly more parity present this season, they will have a much more difficult time than in previous years to win.

How is their Sept. schedule a torture device if they have the best record against their own division? They have a better home record than both the Yanks and Red Sox, and a better road record than the Red Sox. Plus, they are 3-0 against the Tigers this season.

1st in SB
2nd in WHIP
3rd in ERA

Thank you.


"The Rays have played 112 games without a player in the likes of David Ortiz or Alex Rodriguez"

But August and September are a whole new beast. When the pressure is up and you start to face everyone's best pitchers each and every inning, you don't know how this team will respond. They have shown that they can be shut down and once again this is a totally new experience. We have no evidence that they can win consistently in the next 2 months in a tough division because they've never played in these times.

The Red Sox and Yankees have been in every situation imaginable really. They have lost, won, choked, and succeeded in big spots. The Red Sox are still the most well-rounded team in baseball, more so than the Angels or Rays still because they have proved they can win in the playoffs. The Yankees are still the Yankees and you can't count them out yet on August 6th.

While they are 3-0 against Tigers, they were at home then. They go on the road for the final season series. The combined records of the teams they face in Sept. is 354-332. Inexperienced, they will be facing each teams best pitchers and best efforts, and a hard schedule, they're not winning this division.

August 5, 2008  08:28 PM ET

Good luck, Coletrain. This my first throwdown. If anyone can give me a few pointers on throwdowning, that would be great. Thanks.

August 5, 2008  08:31 PM ET

Your first tip expect defeat when going against coletrain in a baseball TD

August 5, 2008  08:33 PM ET

I hope so.

August 5, 2008  08:33 PM ET

Good luck, Coletrain. This my first throwdown. If anyone can give me a few pointers on throwdowning, that would be great. Thanks.
TheBandwagoner | 08/05/08, 08:28 PM

Tough first opponet, but so far youve done fine.

August 5, 2008  08:37 PM ET

I cant believe my first throwdown is against a guy with almost 300 wins...Im already thrown into the fire! Should be a good challenge.

Thanks, travis.

August 5, 2008  08:41 PM ET

Nothing to give up on... that was an impressive opening argument for a newbie... there's a reason it was open for so long...

August 5, 2008  08:43 PM ET

Yeah TheBandwogoner he has 300 wins and is considered the best baseball throwdown on this site by many..

You did do a very good opening argument

August 5, 2008  08:45 PM ET

Thanks PhillyFan. I noticed theres a limit on how much you can type. I guess they dont want anyone falling asleep reading.

August 5, 2008  08:46 PM ET

Good luck to you as well, Bandwagoner.

August 5, 2008  08:47 PM ET

I appreciate all the kind comments. I just hope I don't get my **** kicked too bad.

August 5, 2008  08:49 PM ET

I think left is right but i want right to be saying the truth. Then theres the fact Coletrain had a slightly better argument. Will have to wait for more though

August 5, 2008  08:49 PM ET

Just have fun man.

August 5, 2008  08:55 PM ET

Yeah exactly what coletrain said. Give it your best shot dont be obssesed with wining and losing and make a good arguments

August 5, 2008  09:17 PM ET

I'm going to wait.

August 5, 2008  09:17 PM ET

But this has became a Manning vs Brady type TD

August 5, 2008  09:41 PM ET

nice argument

August 5, 2008  10:14 PM ET

I gotta get off. I'll post my 2nd argument tomorrow.

August 5, 2008  10:31 PM ET

Coletrain? Dude is nothing. I was fairly new here and I tied him arguing for the Marlins BEFORE the season. Maybe that's more me rather than him :)

Just kidding, man. We both know you're a baseball genius.

August 5, 2008  10:46 PM ET

Cole, Mr. Lampo called and said he needs more bullets for his shotgun.

 
August 5, 2008  10:59 PM ET

Boston

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