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Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox said 08/29, 03:18 AM
Nope.

Think about this rationally and not as someone impressed with Mike's current run of success.

This time last year he was BENCHED for SUCKING.

Moose is a streaky pitcher who is going through a good streak right now. The man is older than I am. I saw man land on the moon when I was two months old...he REMEMBERS it.

My best guess is the Yankees let him go after this year. Then what? What contender is going to sign a 40-something streaky pitcher to a long term contract? He's going to need, at least, 3 more years to get there on a GOOD team that can give him a lot of run support.

OK, Detroit might be dumb enough. If they are I concede he'll get to 300 in 2012. Outside of that, not likely.

Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox said 08/29, 04:47 PM
Glavine and Moyer are exceptions, not the rule. And even Glavine only won 30 games in the 3 years after the age Moose is, now. Mussina is having a great year, but 40 year old bodies don't bounce back quite the same as 30 year old bodies.

I don't see any way the Yankees will re-sign him. There are going to be a ton of pitchers on the F.A. market this year. One of the Yankees biggest problems is they are OLD. Will some team sign him? Of course. Will it be a team that will give him the kind of run support the Yankees give him? Not likely.

Not sure where you are getting the arbitrary 15 wins next year, at age 40, from. He's only reached that number twice since he was 34 years old, including this season which has been an aberration, not a rule.

Moose is looking at a -minimum- of 3 years more years of being fairly productive to reach 300. How much is he going to demand in free agency? Does he even want to play another 3 years? There are a lot of variables in play here

Age and time are not on his side, even with the good season he's having his velocity is down, he can't take Clemens little helper, and was showing serious signs of decline just a year ago. Another 3 years is too much

Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox said 08/29, 11:51 PM
5.68, 5.56, 5.78, 5.85, 5.38

Those are the average runs scored by the Yankees in games Mussina has started each of the last 5 years. More than a full run above league average every year. Even so, he has still only surpassed 15 wins in two of those 5 years.

Not many teams out there can deliver that kind of run support.

With the likes of Sabathia, and Burnett, and Sheets available in free agency, Moose isn't going to be a priority signing for the Yankees.

It's fantastic that Mike only walked 35 last year. Of course, hitters were too busy teeing off on him to take a walk. 188 hits allowed in 152 innings. His ERA has been 4.40+ in 3 of the last 4 years. He's given up more hits than IP in 4 of the last 5.

You want to send him to Texas? There is a reason the Rangers lead the league in runs but are last in pitching. That ball park is where pitchers go to die. A contact pitcher with declining velocity like Mussina would get killed playing half his games in that park.

And once again he's hitting that threshold where pitchers rarely excel. The dreaded 40th birthday. To expect a pitcher with declining velocity to remain productive for another 3 seasons at that age isn't reasonable