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  • August 29, 2008 05:35 PM ET

Jason Campbell WILL NOT be the breakout player so many people are predicting

EagleHater: Goodbye, FN (84-36-3) vs Swayze seeks redemption (75-91-15)
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OK, I keep hearing all these so called experts talking about Redskins QB Jason Campbell, and how he is gonna come out and surprise everyone and all that crap.

I totally disagree. Why? Well, let's take a look at some arguments people use for Campbell:

- "He looked really good and was starting to mature last season."

Uh, no. He really didn't. In 13 games last year he had an average 60% completion rating. 2,700 yards, around average as well. A mediocre 6.5 ypc. And a mediocre 12 TDs to 11 INTs. Let's put this into a season: 60% completion rate is below average compared to many other starters. 3,323 yards would put him an average 14th place in the NFL. 17 TDs 16th, and 15 INTs tied for 9th most. 3,3300 yards, 17 TDs and 15 INTs? That is not great at all, and was actually a step BACKWARDS in many ways from the previous year!


- "Well, he FINISHED strong last year."

Again, NOT TRUE! He missed the last 4 games (inc. playoffs.) In the 3 games before he was out, he had a whopping 1 TD against 3 INTs, a big reason why the Skins went 1-2 losing two close ones. Before his injury, Campbell was actually knocking the team OUT of playoff contention!


Next: New offense, bad pre-season.


Last time I checked a breakout year would signify that his stats have not been unusually stellar up to this point.
Maybe its just me, but as a football fan I would love to have a relative newcomer to show the poise and production of this guy.

"He looked really good and was starting to mature last season"

Yep. He throws more TDs that he does INTs, thats better than mediocre since half the teams in the league cant find that. He also throws the ball down field - only falling below 200 yards passing 5 times in his last 16 "Healthy" games. Questioning whether or not he has already proven that he can be an effective player in the NFL should already be out of the discussion.

"Well, he FINISHED strong last year."

Again, yep. In the last 4 games he actually got to finish he averaged 270 yards per game, threw 6 TDs against 4 INTs, had an 81 QB Rating, and completed 62% of his passes.

Twice he threw for over 300 yards against good defenses in Dallas and Tampa Bay.

The new offense is nothing new for Campbell who is now in his 3rd in 4 years. If anything Zorn, who cultivated Hasselbeck, will improve Cambpell.

And do not even mention the Preseason ...


OK, well, I'll get to some more points. First, there is the new offense. What is it, his 7th in the last 8 years, I believe? Come on... the kid is in a new system. He's playing behind an old and fragile offensive line. He's got two new WRs at the #3 and #4 slots, which the new offensive utilizes a lot of. It'll take time to build a rapport up there.


Now, pre-season and camp, I agree is not always the best way to evaluate a guy, especially a starter. However, it IS somewhat useful- coaches don't name starters and cut players off of a whim. If a QB in a new offense doesn't execute now, it IS a red flag, regardless of the significance to the final standings. And Campbell HAS NOT executed.

Now Jason DID have a good pre-season game. However, since then, in the last 4 games, he has completed a meager 52.9% of his passes on a measly 5.2 yards per completion. He also has 0 TDs and 1 INT in that time, and has had a QB rating below 70.0 three times, including a game with a 0.0 rating. He has also lost a fumble. Again, pre-season, I know, but for the same offense that revolutionized the game, causing completion % and ypc to soar, his low #s there are cause for wonder

This ain't his year


3-17 .... Indy's preseason record over the past 5 years. Judging a players preseason is about as important as their Madden '09 rating.

Judging whether Campbell will be a breakout player requires a standard expectation of what "breakout" means.
I do not contend that Jason will blossom into a top 5 QB - there are too many great QBs in the league this year. However, I do believe that Campbell has the ability to solidify his starting position and a top 15 QB in the NFL.

Your own initial stats garnered him between 13 and 16th in the league in total yards, TDs, and QB rating. And each of those while he missed 3 1/2 games to injury!!! Even a little improvment or more playing time puts him into the top 10 in a number of categories.

They return nearly their entire offense and defense from their playoff run. Zorn is going to be a good coach and the team finally has some stable direction. The heavy offensive Draft can only help him, not hurt him.

He has proven that physically he can get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. As long as the mistakes can be mitigated he will be a strong QB in this league for years to come.

Thats pretty "breakout" to me.


"However, I do believe that Campbell has the ability to solidify his starting position and a top 15 QB in the NFL. "

What?!?! If that's all you think he is going to do, why take this throwdown?!?! He ALREADY solidified the starting position, as the new coaching staff guaranteed him the starting job as soon as they took over. And all of his numbers have already pointed to him being a top 15 QB since last season began. So if ALL HE DOES is play like maybe the 13th-15th best QB in the NFL, then you are ALSO saying he will not have a break-out season!

Therefore, you are AGREEING with me. The point of this throwdown is you think he'll be basically a top 10 QB. You don't have a breakout season by playing EXACTLY AS YOU DID the year before. Look at guys like Peter King of Sports Illustrated and many ESPN analysts. Many are saying he will be the breakout player of the NFC, if not the whole NFL. Somehow, I don't think they mean he'll throw 18 TDs to 15 INTs.


Also, I KNOW pre-season is a bad indicator of TEAM play. HOWEVER, Campbell has not shown the ability to go through his reads especially well or throw with accuracy. Those are 2 things that carry over from pre-season to reg. season


Forfeited Turn

Comments (22) Add A Comment

August 29, 2008  07:07 PM ET
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Good luck.

August 29, 2008  07:18 PM ET
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Thank you, I would tell you the same, but I prefer to hoard all that I can get.

August 29, 2008  07:19 PM ET
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^

Then I take mine back. Plus interest haha

August 29, 2008  07:39 PM ET
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Pre-Season means nothing. Campbell should do well in Zorns offense.

August 29, 2008  07:45 PM ET
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"Next: New offense, bad pre-season."

The Patriots team did bad in the preseason. Does that make them a bad team? No.

August 29, 2008  07:53 PM ET
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""Next: New offense, bad pre-season."

The Patriots team did bad in the preseason. Does that make them a bad team? No.

DetroitFan* BS: Haha Harris! | 08/29/08, 07:45 PM "

Did I say that? I'm saying when a starter is in a new system and he doesn't seem to be grasping the fundamentals of the system very well, it's not good. I don't care if he throws for only 5 yards or if it's 500 yards. I don't care if he wins or loses. But when the system calls for easy, sure completions and a high ypc, and he is not executing that, THEN there is a reason to look. As I said before, coaches play guys to evaluate them, and pre-season games are good at that. The score may not matter, and whether the team plays well as a unit may not matter, but if the CONCEPTS are not being grasped, and to my eyes, Campbell isn't grasping them very well as of now, then these games are legit to talk about.

August 29, 2008  08:06 PM ET
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You judging him by preseason performance is not the best way to go. Even you agree. Other players like Joey Harrington look great in the preseason (he did a few years ago). Kitna always looks good in the preseason, but the point is that players adapt to or fall apart from the offense in which they were taught to play in as the game goes on. Especially when the team has to kick it into gear.

August 29, 2008  08:09 PM ET
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I am just saying, if it is not the best way to judge a player, in which you agree, then why use it if you don't even think it is the best to your advantage?

August 29, 2008  08:11 PM ET
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Other team's backups look better than the starter in the preseason, but they don't switch it on their depth chart. The reason being that the preseason doesn't matter.

August 29, 2008  08:11 PM ET
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Worded badly.

August 29, 2008  08:12 PM ET
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^

Oh my God dude... I am not basing my entire opinion off of his pre-season!!!! I KNOW that is a bad idea. HOWEVER, whenever you play a game whether is counts or not, your fundamentals and understand of the offense shine through. You can't just say, "It's pre-season so I am going to go out and completely forget how to make precise throws and go through my reads." You don't worry about throwing a costly pick in crunch time, but if you honestly think Campbell, or any QB, goes out there and purposely shuts off their brain, you're just being foolish.

I know it's trendy to rag on pre-season, but don't be foolish. You can't tell what teams will be good, or even necessarily how well a player will do. But if a guy has poor mechanics and understanding of what he is doing in the offense, you CAN see that. And I DO see that in Campbell- and that is NOT something that changes from pre-season to regular season.


Also, read my first argument again- I am NOT basing this entirely on pre-season. Everyone seems to expect he's gonna come out with 3,600 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs. They say he did well last year- he didn't! They say he finished well- he didn't! They say he's looked good in camp- he hasn't! That is my point.

August 29, 2008  08:19 PM ET
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I know you aren't basing it entirely on preseason. You say players work on their fundementals and understand the offense, yes they do. However are they going to play as hard in a game during the regular season and be as up tight as in a regular season game? No. They won't. I am aware you aren't basing yuor entire argument off of the preseason. I am just telling you where the turn-off might be to touching on the preseason.

August 29, 2008  08:27 PM ET
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I've heard a few predict it, but not as many as Eagle makes it sound.

August 29, 2008  08:35 PM ET
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Marc called, said the kids are Satanists!

August 29, 2008  08:43 PM ET
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"You say players work on their fundementals and understand the offense, yes they do. However are they going to play as hard in a game during the regular season and be as up tight as in a regular season game? No"

I know that. But the two things I see are this: He doesn't have an accurate touch and good placement on his passes. And he doesn't seem to be going through his reads particularly well.

If you're Peyton Manning, that's no concern. But this is Jason Campbell. He's a young guy everyone is predicting good things for this year. It's like his make or break season in a way. And now is pre-season, where the games don't count, but you're still playing against real NFL players. If he isn't trying, or if he isn't doing his best to learn a new O and how to go through his progressions, than he has even bigger problems than I thought.

August 29, 2008  08:43 PM ET
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Shut up Cole. lol

August 29, 2008  08:48 PM ET
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"If he isn't trying, or if he isn't doing his best to learn a new O and how to go through his progressions, than he has even bigger problems than I thought."

Then you see how well he performs in the regular season when it counts.

August 30, 2008  12:15 AM ET
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Going that way ---->

August 30, 2008  12:22 PM ET
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Campbell won't put up Brady numbers, but he'll become a reliable and coveted starter. I think that qualifies as breakout.

 
August 30, 2008  02:46 PM ET
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I don't understand this... Swayze thinks he'll be around a top 15 QB... THAT'S WHAT HE WAS LAST YEAR! His team made the playoffs, he was around the 15th best QB in the NFL, etc.

So how is doing the EXACT SAME THING a breakout year???

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