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  • August 30, 2008 03:08 AM ET

Adrian Peterson should NOT be the second pick in a fantasy draft.

Cowboys-Celtics-Chisox (384-168-36) vs cowace2 (67-27-8)
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So I've got a yahoo fantasy draft coming up in the morning (hopefully I can drag myself out of bed for it) and I'm looking at Yahoo's rankings. Peterson at #2? In a head to head league?

Now, I've been playing fantasy football longer than some members of this site have been alive so I've seen my fair share of silly rankings and stupid picks. But this one is ridiculous beyond belief.

If you believe Peterson is worthy of the second overall pick in a head to head fantasy draft, lets throwdown.


Sure, why not?

I'm going with the assumption that LT is the #1 pick, and that AD is competing against Westbrook, Brady, Addai, and Jackson. I'd take AD over any of them.

The main reason is potential. AD is in close to an ideal situation to maximize his production in Minnesota...he has an outstanding offensive line, a scheme quite literally designed around him and his talents, and a passing game which is just good enough to not be completely ignored by defenses, but just bad enough that it means the offensive focus will be on AD. In addition, Minnesota will likely feature a top 5 defense this season, which will mean more wins, and thus, more late carries to grind out the clock. Situations for RBs don't get much better than that.


We all know the knocks against AD: injury questions, mediocre passing game, inconsistency...it has been said before, and I'm sure you'll say it again. However, the more relevant questions are the ones facing AD's competition at #2...Westbrook, a much older and even more injury prone back on a much more inconsistent team. Jackson, coming off a long holdout and a major injury, playing on an aging offense. Brady...a QB. Inherently less valuable.


With the 2nd overall pick in a head to head fantasy league, you aren't looking for potential. In a 10 team league you aren't picking again until the 19th overall pick. You've got to make sure to maximize points at #2.

As far as that outstanding defensive line, perhaps you haven't heard, but Bryant McKinnie was just suspended for the first 4 games of the year. That's a huge blow to the Vikings running and passing games.

Peterson is far too streaky and injury prone to count on as your premier point scorer week in and week out. Sure, some weeks he'll single handedly win for you, but others he'll just flat kill you.

Last year he had two monster games, 4 good ones, and 8 that were mediocre to piss poor. Anyone counting on Adrian in their fantasy playoffs last year was horribly disappointed. Over the last 4 games of the year, when teams abandoned any semblance of pass defense and concentrated on shutting Peterson down he ran for a TOTAL of 144 yards on 54 carries and 2 TD's. A whopping 2.7YPC average when fantasy owners needed him most.

The other problem is he's in a two back system. It's never good to rely on a RB that high who splits carries. 7 times he had 15 or fewer touches.


Forfeited Turn


I am certain Adrian would appreciate the strong, eloquent, and passionate rebuttal you have delivered on his behalf. I'm sure he couldn't have said it any better himself.

To summarize:

-In his rookie year, AD was a fantasy killer as or more often as he was a stud.

-He hasn't played a fully healthy season since grade school. Now that he's playing with the big boys week in and week out the injury question is when, not if.

-His left tackle, critical to his success, is suspended for the first quarter of the season.

-He's in a two back system, severely limiting the times he touches the ball each game.

Head to head fantasy leagues are a week to week thing. One weeks stats have no bearing on any other week so his huge games only helped his owners twice last year and didn't do a thing for them when he struggled horribly the last 4 games of the year. Playoff time.

In a 10 team league, with the 2nd pick you have your choice of anyone in the league other than LDT (usually) to be your star week in and week out points producer. You then don't pick again until 19th, when all of the A-list producers are gone. You can't afford to screw up the 2nd pick with a guy that all or nothing.


Forfeited Turn

August 30, 2008  09:03 AM ET

CCC- i see 9-1 coming here! lol good luck

August 30, 2008  10:02 AM ET

It depends, if your in a keeper league I would take Peterson #2 in a heartbeat

August 30, 2008  10:06 AM ET

NO WAY! but why type somethin out here, I put it all down here http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/233835

August 30, 2008  10:17 AM ET

It depends on what you are looking for. Last year, Westbrook had more points than Peterson, but with Peterson missing 2 games, and the last 2 games it was obvious the Vikings decided to barely play him, Peterson averaged more points per game when he played otherwise, and for those weeks, a different player could have started instead of Peterson and overall the value would be higher than Westbrook. In leagues where value is assigned per catch, Westbrook should definately be the #2 back, Peterson #3. Keeper has Peterson at #2, and other leagues it is personal choice. Hindsight is always 20-20, and Peterson has shown that he has the potential to be the highest scoring player in fantasy football if he stays healthy, so where he goes in the draft is based on personal choice. The high risk/high payoff people might pick him as the #1 pick (I don't agree with this, but it does happen in some leagues). People who like some risk pick him at #2, and people who like consistency would pick Westbrook before Peterson. To say what should be done or not done can only be said in hindsight, and predictions like this are pointless, as there just is no way to know. Shame on you, CCC.

August 30, 2008  11:54 AM ET

Brian Westbrook at 2

August 30, 2008  11:54 AM ET

My draft is at 5am Pacific Time (damn my east coast friends) tomorrow. I have the 3rd pick though

August 30, 2008  12:02 PM ET

AP is injury prone, and he also follows up 200 yard games with 20 yard games. What's more, touchdowns are what really matter in FFB, and he only had 12. I'd take Westbrook AND Steven Jackson before him at #2.

August 30, 2008  12:15 PM ET

AP is injury prone, and he also follows up 200 yard games with 20 yard games. What's more, touchdowns are what really matter in FFB, and he only had 12. I'd take Westbrook AND Steven Jackson before him at #2.
Favrefan says GO USA!! | 08/30/08, 12:02 PM

Only had 12! That was the second most rushing TD's in all of football.

August 30, 2008  12:20 PM ET

12 TOTAL TDs. He is not a threat as a receiver. He is injury prone. He is inconsistent. If it wasn't for his one huge game against Sand Diego, none of us would be high on him. It takes more than one game to get me on the bandwagon. If he's healthy for a year and shows to be more than just a breakaway threat, I'll jump on.

August 30, 2008  12:28 PM ET

Look I am not here to defend the guy, but the statement made no sense. He was 6th in the NFL in total TD's with 13 and 3rd among all running backs. More than Westbrook has ever had in a season. I still have Westbrook ahead of him but not for the TD reason.

Jackson had one good year himself, then got hurt. I don't want to here about his injury being why they didn't play well the Rams were 3 and 9 with Jackson and played like crap before he got hurt. The O-Line is pitiful and I just don't see how Jackson can be any higher than Peterson. Both have a lot to prove. No O-line means no where to run.

August 30, 2008  12:38 PM ET

What exactly does team success have to do with fantasy football? Jackson was hurt last year but has no other history of injury in his college or pro career. AP was hurt all through college and missed two more games in his first pro season. Furthermore, Jackson is a much bigger receiving threat than AP, who is useless on anything more than screens.

What's more, the Vikings have no passing offense and thus teams are stacking the box, whereas the Rams still have some semblence of passing ability. I'd take Jackson over Peterson, and I can promise Jackson will have a better year.

August 30, 2008  12:44 PM ET

This is all completely relative to the scoring system of the league you're in. Not to mention the fact that predicting whoever will be the "second best Fantasy player" (whatever that means) is as arbitrary as it gets. I bet no one had Randy Moss as the top WR in the league last year, either. I'll bet it won't be Adrian Peterson simply because it could be anyone.

In saying that, it could be AP, it could be Ahmad Bradshaw for all we know right now.

August 30, 2008  12:45 PM ET

Well, yes that is true but not too beneficial in the sake of argument. This isn't about settling an argument, this is about exploring one. Or something deep and philosophical like that.

August 30, 2008  12:53 PM ET

So if AP falls in the woods, does anyone in Green Bay care? That kinda thing?

August 30, 2008  01:06 PM ET

I'm a firm believer that drafting stand alone starting RB's (no platoon) and #1 WR's no matter how bad the team is - is the way to do well in any league. It's why Westbrook is far more valuable than AP in my opinion. And also why LDT is the sure #1 pick. Just my thoughts.

August 30, 2008  01:16 PM ET

Even though I just drafted Peterson. I agree, CCC. I wanted Westbrook, but he was taken at 2.

August 30, 2008  01:45 PM ET

Yes, I agree, I would take Westbrook over Peterson, but I don't think Peterson's only going to get 140 touches this year like he did last year. He's versatile and has good receiving skills, the Vikings just didn't use him on third downs.

August 30, 2008  02:03 PM ET

Peterson had 257 touches, and you can expect him to get a similar amount this year in a platoon offense with Chester Taylor. Furthermore, he has done nothing to display good receiving skills at any level. He's not an all purpose back, at least not yet.

August 30, 2008  04:07 PM ET

"Yes, I agree, I would take Westbrook over Peterson, but I don't think Peterson's only going to get 140 touches this year like he did last year."

What are you talking about Cooz? Peterson carried the ball 238 times last year. As far as "good receiving skills" I think you have him confused with the other Adrian Peterson...

 
August 31, 2008  08:00 PM ET

"Only had 12! That was the second most rushing TD's in all of football."

Meaningless. 6 of the 12 came in his two 220+yd games. All that really did was pile on points for his owners who were likely going to win their week just off his yards alone. He didn't score at all in 7 of his 14 games. In the seven games he didn't score, he also only surpassed 70 yards once. I can't use the 2nd overall pick on a guy who is going to do virtually nothing for my team in half the games he plays in.

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